FanPost

September 7th, Dodgers vs Padres - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Padres using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Tuesday at 11:00 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 LAN SD C.Kershaw vs M.Latos SD 55.75% 58.49%

 

Notes:  Lots of low scoring games near the top of the table below.  Get your contest guesses in.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored both teams: 5.5
2. C.Kershaw earned runs allowed: 1.5
3. Dodgers number of bullpen pitchers used: 2.5
4. M.Latos strikeouts minus C.Kershaw strikeouts: 0.5
5. Padres runs minus Dodgers runs: 1.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 SD 2-1   51 LAN 7-3   101 SD 12-2
2 SD 1-0   52 LAN 7-0   102 LAN 10-4
3 SD 3-2   53 SD 8-2   103 SD 10-5
4 LAN 2-1   54 SD 7-4   104 LAN 9-6
5 LAN 1-0   55 LAN 7-4   105 SD 12-3
6 SD 2-0   56 SD 7-6   106 SD 11-4
7 SD 3-1   57 LAN 8-1   107 SD 13-2
8 LAN 3-2   58 SD 9-1   108 SD 9-8
9 LAN 2-0   59 LAN 8-2   109 LAN 11-1
10 SD 4-3   60 SD 9-0   110 SD 9-7
11 LAN 3-1   61 SD 8-3   111 LAN 11-3
12 SD 3-0   62 LAN 7-5   112 LAN 9-7
13 SD 4-1   63 SD 9-2   113 SD 13-1
14 SD 4-2   64 SD 7-5   114 LAN 11-2
15 LAN 3-0   65 LAN 8-0   115 LAN 10-5
16 SD 4-0   66 LAN 7-6   116 LAN 10-6
17 LAN 4-2   67 LAN 8-3   117 SD 12-4
18 LAN 4-3   68 SD 8-4   118 SD 10-6
19 LAN 4-1   69 SD 9-3   119 SD 11-5
20 SD 5-1   70 SD 10-0   120 LAN 11-5
21 SD 5-2   71 SD 10-1   121 LAN 11-0
22 LAN 4-0   72 LAN 8-4   122 LAN 12-0
23 SD 5-0   73 SD 8-5   123 LAN 12-1
24 SD 5-4   74 LAN 9-1   124 SD 13-0
25 LAN 5-1   75 SD 10-2   125 LAN 9-8
26 SD 5-3   76 LAN 9-2   126 LAN 12-2
27 LAN 5-2   77 LAN 9-3   127 SD 14-1
28 LAN 5-3   78 SD 9-4   128 LAN 11-4
29 SD 6-1   79 LAN 8-5   129 SD 14-2
30 SD 6-0   80 LAN 9-0   130 SD 13-3
31 LAN 5-0   81 SD 8-7   131 SD 10-7
32 LAN 5-4   82 LAN 9-4   132 SD 13-4
33 SD 6-2   83 SD 11-1   133 SD 10-9
34 SD 6-3   84 SD 11-0   134 LAN 10-7
35 LAN 6-1   85 SD 11-2   135 LAN 13-1
36 SD 6-5   86 LAN 8-6   136 SD 14-0
37 LAN 6-2   87 SD 8-6   137 LAN 12-4
38 SD 7-0   88 SD 10-3   138 LAN 11-7
39 SD 7-1   89 LAN 10-1   139 LAN 12-3
40 LAN 6-3   90 SD 10-4   140 SD 14-3
41 LAN 6-0   91 LAN 10-0   141 SD 10-8
42 SD 7-2   92 SD 9-5   142 SD 11-6
43 SD 6-4   93 LAN 10-3   143 LAN 13-2
44 LAN 6-4   94 LAN 10-2   144 LAN 13-5
45 LAN 7-1   95 SD 11-3   145 SD 14-4
46 SD 7-3   96 SD 12-0   146 LAN 10-8
47 LAN 6-5   97 SD 9-6   147 SD 15-1
48 SD 8-0   98 LAN 9-5   148 LAN 13-4
49 SD 8-1   99 LAN 8-7   149 LAN 11-8
50 LAN 7-2   100 SD 12-1   150 SD 15-2

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