September 9th, Dodgers vs Astros - Simulation
by Xeifrank on Sep 8, 2010 11:38 PM PDT
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PrintI used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Astros using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Wednesday at 11:30 PM)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob |
| LAN | HOU | T.Lilly vs B.Norris | LAN | 55.56% | 48.10% |
Notes: The simulator raises a rather large red flag with this game. Ted Lilly has a rather lucky ERA and Bud Norris a rather unlucky one. Norris has slightly better peripheral numbers than Lilly. The only flag the Dodgers will wave is the red flag they brought with them to Houston from San Diego. The Dodgers have finally seen their NL West title chances drop to 0.01%. Get your game score and over/under guesses in. We have had quite a long drought for someone picking either the score or five over/under questions correctly.
Over/Under Questions:
1. Total runs scored both teams: 7.5
2. T.Lilly earned runs allowed: 2.5
3. Number of total HRs plus triples in game: 1.5
4. B.Norris total strikeouts: 6.5
5. Dodgers bullpen total batters faced: 8.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
Top 150 Most Likely Scores
| 1 HOU 3-2 | 51 LAN 6-0 | 101 HOU 11-1 | ||
| 2 HOU 2-1 | 52 LAN 7-5 | 102 HOU 10-0 | ||
| 3 HOU 4-3 | 53 LAN 7-6 | 103 LAN 11-1 | ||
| 4 LAN 3-2 | 54 LAN 8-3 | 104 HOU 11-2 | ||
| 5 LAN 2-1 | 55 LAN 8-2 | 105 LAN 10-6 | ||
| 6 LAN 4-3 | 56 HOU 7-5 | 106 HOU 10-5 | ||
| 7 HOU 3-1 | 57 LAN 8-1 | 107 LAN 11-4 | ||
| 8 LAN 3-1 | 58 HOU 7-0 | 108 HOU 11-3 | ||
| 9 LAN 4-2 | 59 HOU 8-2 | 109 LAN 9-8 | ||
| 10 HOU 1-0 | 60 HOU 8-3 | 110 LAN 12-2 | ||
| 11 HOU 5-4 | 61 HOU 8-1 | 111 HOU 9-7 | ||
| 12 HOU 4-2 | 62 LAN 7-0 | 112 LAN 12-3 | ||
| 13 HOU 4-1 | 63 LAN 8-4 | 113 HOU 11-4 | ||
| 14 LAN 4-1 | 64 LAN 8-5 | 114 LAN 11-5 | ||
| 15 LAN 5-4 | 65 LAN 9-2 | 115 HOU 12-2 | ||
| 16 HOU 2-0 | 66 HOU 8-4 | 116 HOU 10-6 | ||
| 17 LAN 1-0 | 67 HOU 9-1 | 117 HOU 12-3 | ||
| 18 LAN 5-3 | 68 HOU 8-7 | 118 LAN 11-0 | ||
| 19 LAN 5-2 | 69 LAN 8-6 | 119 LAN 10-7 | ||
| 20 HOU 5-2 | 70 HOU 9-3 | 120 LAN 12-1 | ||
| 21 HOU 3-0 | 71 HOU 9-2 | 121 HOU 11-0 | ||
| 22 LAN 2-0 | 72 LAN 9-4 | 122 LAN 12-4 | ||
| 23 HOU 5-3 | 73 LAN 9-1 | 123 HOU 12-1 | ||
| 24 HOU 5-1 | 74 HOU 8-5 | 124 HOU 11-5 | ||
| 25 HOU 6-5 | 75 HOU 8-0 | 125 HOU 10-7 | ||
| 26 LAN 3-0 | 76 LAN 9-3 | 126 LAN 11-6 | ||
| 27 HOU 4-0 | 77 LAN 8-7 | 127 HOU 10-9 | ||
| 28 LAN 5-1 | 78 HOU 8-6 | 128 LAN 12-5 | ||
| 29 LAN 6-3 | 79 LAN 8-0 | 129 LAN 10-8 | ||
| 30 HOU 6-3 | 80 LAN 10-3 | 130 HOU 12-0 | ||
| 31 HOU 6-2 | 81 LAN 9-5 | 131 HOU 10-8 | ||
| 32 LAN 6-4 | 82 LAN 10-2 | 132 LAN 10-9 | ||
| 33 LAN 6-2 | 83 HOU 9-4 | 133 LAN 12-0 | ||
| 34 LAN 6-5 | 84 HOU 9-0 | 134 HOU 11-6 | ||
| 35 LAN 4-0 | 85 HOU 10-3 | 135 HOU 13-3 | ||
| 36 LAN 6-1 | 86 LAN 9-0 | 136 LAN 13-2 | ||
| 37 HOU 5-0 | 87 LAN 10-4 | 137 LAN 11-7 | ||
| 38 HOU 6-1 | 88 HOU 9-5 | 138 HOU 12-4 | ||
| 39 HOU 6-4 | 89 LAN 9-6 | 139 LAN 13-5 | ||
| 40 LAN 5-0 | 90 LAN 10-1 | 140 LAN 13-1 | ||
| 41 HOU 7-2 | 91 HOU 10-1 | 141 HOU 13-2 | ||
| 42 LAN 7-2 | 92 HOU 10-2 | 142 HOU 11-7 | ||
| 43 LAN 7-4 | 93 HOU 9-8 | 143 LAN 14-1 | ||
| 44 LAN 7-3 | 94 LAN 10-5 | 144 LAN 13-3 | ||
| 45 HOU 6-0 | 95 HOU 10-4 | 145 LAN 13-4 | ||
| 46 HOU 7-6 | 96 LAN 9-7 | 146 LAN 11-8 | ||
| 47 HOU 7-3 | 97 HOU 9-6 | 147 HOU 11-10 | ||
| 48 HOU 7-1 | 98 LAN 11-2 | 148 HOU 13-1 | ||
| 49 HOU 7-4 | 99 LAN 11-3 | 149 LAN 14-3 | ||
| 50 LAN 7-1 | 100 LAN 10-0 | 150 LAN 12-6 |
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Over/Under Questions
Will raise it by 5 until someone gets over/under correct.
20 points if all five guessed correctly. Listed starters (Lilly, Norris) must start, otherwise only worth 10 points.
1. Total runs scored both teams: 7.5
2. T.Lilly earned runs allowed: 2.5
3. Number of total HRs plus triples in game: 1.5
4. B.Norris total strikeouts: 6.5
5. Dodgers bullpen total batters faced: 8.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
# 30 Hous 6 - 3
Suck it Humma
1. Total runs scored both teams: 7.5
2. T.Lilly earned runs allowed: 2.5
3. Number of total HRs plus triples in game: 1.5
4. B.Norris total strikeouts: 6.5
5. Dodgers bullpen total batters faced: 8.5
Sample Answer: ooooo
#1 HOU 3-2, UOOOU
Nobody got the final score right. Nobody got the over/under questions all correct either. The progressive over/under jackpot will now go up to 25 points. Since it is so high, if multiple people guess it correctly it will be split evenly.
Daily Scoreboard
5 – Alex41592
3 – Xeifrank
1 – Phil Gurnee (at Humma’s expense)
Since it is so high, if multiple people guess it correctly it will be split evenly.
You may not be interested in suggestions, but may I offer one anyway?
I suggest that if multiple people guess it correctly, the O/U points are split evenly, with a minimum of ten points per person. We have had days where four people have correctly guessed the O/U; it would stink if that happened under this new plan and it resulted in fewer points per person.
The Omar Moreno of this blog
by Humma Kavula on Sep 9, 2010 10:51 PM PDT up reply actions
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