One more try at the elusive 120 Million
Alright guys, so after much deliberation and more research on others lineups and blogs I’m gonna take one more crack at a 120 mil lineup. Even though I took out the big free agent signing, I tried to use trades for younger talent in order to put together a team that could late a couple of years. Also a number of the players can play multiple postions making, meaning that the manager would have a lot of freedom with the starting lineup. Explanation of trades and free agent signings is below the lineup
Position Players:
C: AJ Ellis (435k)
1B: James Loney (6mil)
2B: Martin Prado (4.5mil)
SS: Dee Gordon (420k)
3B: Juan Uribe (8mil F*ing Ned)
RF: Jerry Sands (420k)
CF: Matt Kemp (15mil, seems to be the agreed amount for first year of his BIG deal )
LF: Kelly Johnson (6mil contract discussed below)
Bench:
Juan Rivera (4mil, again F*ing Ned)
Ian Stewart (2mil)
Jose Constanza (420k)
Justin Sellers (420k)
Ramon Castro (1.25mil)
Starters:
Clayton Kershaw (6mil, seems to be the agreed amount for first year of his BIG deal)
Hiroki Kuroda (9.5mil- 2.5mil deferred to next year)
Ted Lily (11mil)
Chad Billingsly (9mil)
Aaron Harang (4mil)
Relievers:
Matt Guerrier (4.75)
Kenley Jansen (435k)
Scott Elbert (435k)
Blake Hawksworth (435k)
Javy Guerra (420k)
Josh Lindblom (420k)
Hong-Chih Kuo (1.5mil)
Cost
Roster comes to 97.775 mil. Then add the 22.262 mil. Total comes to 120,037 million for next year. (Sorry it’s a tad over)
Trades:
Trade 1: Andre Either for Martin Prado and Jose Constanza (suggested by the blog Feeling Kinda blue and tweaked by me)
Why: The Braves are dying for a real bat in their out field, but can’t dish out a big contract. They put Prado there because they don’t have anything better. Either will give them a year of the bat they need at a price that isn’t entirely out of their range. As for the Dodgers, in Prado they get a solid everyday player who can play a number of positions, is a good bat for the 2 slot in the lineup, and still has two years till free agency. Also despite Prado’s bad year in 2011, the three years before that he put up an OPS of over 800. As for Jose Constanza, he is a outfielder with a good glove, a ton of speed, and hits for average (think Tony Gwynn, but a better bat). Currently the Braves have no space in the outfield (they won’t move Heyward to make space), and at 26 he is getting a little old to wait around for the outfield logjam in Atlanta to clear. So with Jose, Dodgers get a younger Gwynn at half the price. Martin will make about 4.5 mil through arbitration and Jose will cost 420k, while Either will cost about 12 through arbitration. That saves about 7 million.
Trade 2: Ivan Dejesus and Chris Withrow for Ian Stewart
Why: Currently the Rockies are strapped for starting pitching after injuries and trades racked them last year. Also they have started to sour on once highly touted third baseman Ian Stewart. Personally I believe that Stewart is young and still has a chance to be a good MLB third baseman once he figures some stuff out. So Colorado gets a solid nearly ready starter and backup infielder. The Dodgers get a third baseman who lets face it, even when playing bad he still isn’t much worse than Uribe, and has a high potential ceiling if he can find his swing again. Through arbitration Stewart will cost about 2 mil on the books.
Free Agent Signings:
Kelly Johnson: 2B/LF 3yrs/21 mil (paid 6,7,8). A left handed power bat. Sure he strikes out a lot but he can play left and second, so he’ll help to plug the loss of Either in the outfield. In my other attempt people said I signed him low, so I added a few millions.
Aaron Harang: SP 1yr/4 mil (with a 5 mil. Option) Screw Gaslamp for trying to make a point of their vote. It’s not like the writers of True Blue voted didn’t vote Halladay to ensure that he couldn’t beat Kershaw. So instead we’ll take Harang who is a decent pitcher as long as he stays out of home run happy parks like Cincinnati, so he should do fine at Dodger Stadium.
Kuroda: SP 1yr/12 mil (paid as 9.5 mil with 2.5 deferred. It’s the Kuroda Special)
Hong-Chih Kuo: RP *1yr/1.5 mil. He was awesome in 09 and 10 I’m willing to give him one more chance
Ramon Castro: 1yr/1.25 mil cause that seems to be the accepted for a back up catcher.
Other fun with the lineup:
If you haven’t noticed, the roster has a number of players that can play multiple positions. This means that as injuries happen it would be fairly easy for the team to fill in empty spots. Also if you’re a fan of playing platoons to get better pitching matchups the team makeup allows it (also you could drop Uribe from the lineup to the bench as well!!!)
Vs. RHP 1.Dee Gordon (SS) 2. Martin Prado (2B) 3. Kelly Johnson (LF) 4. Matt Kemp (CF) 5. James Loney (1B) 6. Jerry Sands (RF) 7. Ian Stewart (3B) 8. AJ Ellis (C)
Vs. LHP 1.Dee Gordon (SS) 2. Martin Prado (2B) 3. Kelly Johnson (LF) 4. Matt Kemp (CF) 5. Juan Rivera (1B) 6. Jerry Sands (RF) 7. Juan Uribe (3B) 8. AJ Ellis (C)
*Xei if you run a simulation have the starting lineup be 1. Gordon (SS) 2. Prado (3B) 3. Johnson (2B) 4. Kemp (CF) 5 Rivera (LF) 6. Loney (1B) 7. Sands (RF) 8. Ellis(C). Pull the idiot Uribe out!
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Switch Prado and Johnson
Prado played 100 games at LF in 2011, Johnson hasn’t played LF since 2005.
@TElciram
by Taylor Maricle on Nov 12, 2011 12:38 AM PST reply actions
Also,
I would see if we could keep Withrow and pawn off someone like Aaron Miller or Ethan Martin on the Rockies. Everyone’s trade plans include trading away Withrow, while I still think he’ll be a good Major Leaguer and would it would be selling low to trade him.
I like the Harang signing, if he could be had at that price (i don’t know what he made last year, so….)
@TElciram
by Taylor Maricle on Nov 12, 2011 12:44 AM PST up reply actions
Harang signed for 3.5 with a 5 mil option for 2012 with the Padres last year. Despite a very solid season the Padres declined the option. So 4 mil is a little bit higher of a starting price.
As for Prado and Johnson I should have them switched. I thought Prado would have the better infield glove at second with his range, but Johnson is better defensively there.
If kuo wants another chance he’ll start in the minors on a minor league deal worth less than a mil. For 1.5 mil I say no fucking way. We can get replacement level for that and its clear kuo is far below replacement.
by lnickerson88 on Nov 12, 2011 8:24 AM PST via mobile reply actions
lineups
I’m confused you have a vs RHP and a vs LHP and then a third lineup which you ask me to use. What I need is a final vs RHP and vs LHP if possible. Can’t run it til later though. Maybe I can run it against your old team first to see if it is worthwhile to use it against the other contenders. :)
vr, Xei
Lineups
Alright my final answer is
vs RHP 1. Gordon 2. Prado 3. Johnson 4. Kemp 5. Loney 6. Rivera 7. Sands 8. Ellis
vs LHP 1. Gordon 2. Prado 3. Johnson 4. Kemp 5. Rivera 6.Loney 7. Sands 8. Ellis
so the only difference is to swap Loney up to batting 5.
Due to Stewart and Uribe being so bad last year, I think it would be more beneficial to keep both out of the lineups as much as possible while running the sim, though during an actual year of baseball the story may be different. That’s why I was saying use the third one for all games as for the most part the new pieces I added (Prado and Johnson) actually don’t have the serious left right flaw that say Either or Loney have.
Jason #2 vs Jason #1
Here are the results pitting your first team against this your second team.
Away Home Away Starting P Home Starting P Winner WinExp Total Runs
JAS2 JAS1 Clayton Kershaw Clayton Kershaw JAS1 54.692 5.89552
JAS1 JAS2 Clayton Kershaw Clayton Kershaw JAS2 55.996 5.81812
JAS2 JAS1 Chad Billingsley Chad Billingsley JAS1 55.92 7.73928
JAS1 JAS2 Chad Billingsley Chad Billingsley JAS2 53.848 7.56484
JAS2 JAS1 Hiroki Kuroda Hiroki Kuroda JAS1 56.504 7.65816
JAS1 JAS2 Hiroki Kuroda Hiroki Kuroda JAS2 53.7 7.52092
JAS2 JAS1 Ted Lilly Ted Lilly JAS1 56.776 7.7468
JAS1 JAS2 Ted Lilly Ted Lilly JAS2 54.064 7.658
JAS2 JAS1 Aaron Harang Nathan Eovaldi JAS1 54.54 8.40776
JAS1 JAS2 Nathan Eovaldi Aaron Harang JAS2 56.844 8.36648
this comes out to be 0.50398 for the first team (JAS1) or 81.64 wins vs JAS2 (new team). So the simulator likes the first team you made slightly better.
wow
Damn the weighting of the last year really kills any attempt to put together a team with risk/reward players who could have possible just had a down year. Though I would assume Prado and Johnson to have better stats next season, as their career dictates that they are better players than what they showed last year, however, the sim just doesn’t show that. Instead it seems like making a team with a bunch of guys that had breakout years (i.e. Cuddyer, or fit in a Michael Young trade) would be more beneficial even though those players may not maintain their rate of production from the prior year.

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