2012 TBLA #2 Dodger Prospect Discussion
by Brandon Lennox on Nov 16, 2011 8:08 AM PST
in Prospects
Email
PrintZach Lee got a little competition from Allen Webster and Nate Eovaldi, but in the end he pulled out a sizable victory to become TBLA's #1 Prospect for the 2012 season. Lee received 42 votes, while Webster and Eovaldi had 13 and 7, respectively. After ranking #3 in the TBLA vote last year, Lee moved up a few spots after a solid professional debut. Now the only question that remains for Lee is where he will start the 2012 season.
Another question is where all the Lee apologists from round 1 will turn to in round two? For the #2 prospect vote, all of the previous candidates will remain options, and I'm also throwing Chris Withrow into the mix. I probably didn't need to include a new name already, but I want to try and add one or two players for each vote.
Use this thread for the prospect discussion, and cast your vote in this fanpost.
Here are the candidates for the Dodgers #2 prospect:
Allen Webster - RHP (21.75 years old) - Webster was dominate in the California League with a 2.33 ERA and 10.3 K/9 through 54 innings, then continued his success in AA before tiring down the stretch. The right hander throws a heavy sinking fastball that can reach 95, and his changeup is described as a potential plus-plus pitch. He also throws an average curveball.
Chris Reed - LHP (21.5 years old) - This year's 1st round pick only threw 7 innings in his professional debut, but as the Stanford closer Reed had a 2.56 ERA in 2011 and struck out a batter per inning. The Dodgers plan to use him as a starter, and he figures to move quickly through the system. The lefty can touch 96 mph and has 3 quality pitches (fastball, power slider, and an above-average changeup)
Garrett Gould - RHP (20.25 years old) - Gould had a breakthrough season in 2011 as he ranked 2nd in the Midwest League with his 2.40 ERA. His FIP was also solid at 3.31, and he had a 7.6 K/9. The big righty possesses a low 90's fastball with good sink and an average changeup, but he's best known for his big 12-to-6 curveball that ranked as one of the best of the 2009 draft.
Nate Eovaldi - RHP (21.75 years old) - We got a good look at Eovaldi in a Dodgers uniform this past season, and he performed well in his big league debut with a 3.63 ERA in 34.2 innings. Back in AA, Nate posted a 2.62 ERA, a 3.05 FIP, and a 8.65 K/9. In terms of his stuff, we all saw that Eovaldi's best pitch is his upper 90's fastball, and he also throws a slider and a changeup.
Joc Pederson - OF (19.5 years old) - Pederson's name was scattered all over the Pioneer League Leaderboard after a big offensive season that saw him hit .353 with 11 homers, 24 SB's, and a .997 OPS. As I mentioned last year he has 5-tool potential, although none of his 5 tools seem to have a particularly high ceiling. Scouts don't think he'll be able to handle center field in the big leagues, but believe he can play either corner outfield spot.
Chris Withrow - RHP (22.5 years old) - Withrow had a quiet, yet solid campaign in 2011 as he posted a 4.20 ERA in AA to go along with a 3.86 FIP and a 9.1 K/9. He continues to struggle with control, but is armed with a hard fastball, a very good curveball, and a changeup that Baseball America calls fringy. He's still in the rotation for now, although there have been talks that he could move to the bullpen if he can't improve his walk rate.
Again, please use this post as the discussion thread, and cast your actual vote in this Fanpost.
One other side note is that we will not hold a vote tomorrow (Thursday) out of respect for the National League Cy Young announcement. The #3 prospect vote will start up on Friday.
856 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
After flipping my shit when we didn't take Taylor Guerreri
I am warming on Chris Reed. He does have good stuff.
I still think Guerreri has the better career, though.
@TElciram
by Taylor Maricle on Nov 16, 2011 9:01 AM PST up reply actions
His anagram has had a very impressive career, so Guerreri clearly will too!
"It's supposed to be hard. If it wasn't hard, everyone would do it. The hard... is what makes it great."
I would have loved having Guerra, Guerrier and Guerreri on the same staff.
Well, not really, because that would mean re-signing Matt Guerrier.
Follow @DavidYoungTBLA
- The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Nov 16, 2011 10:29 AM PST up reply actions
If you look on his B-Ref page you can see how 75% of his starts in the last three years went.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 16, 2011 10:54 AM PST up reply actions
you know the answer to that. But moving from reliever to starter at that age is a non-issue. He’ll tire at the end of the first year, but he’s got the stuff that moving from once through the order to 3 times through won’t be a big deal.
You make it sound so easy, yet there are very few college closer who converted successfully to relief. For whatever reason his college preferred he be a closer.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Nov 16, 2011 11:09 AM PST up reply actions
Probably the eight ERA and .4 K/BB the previous two years.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 16, 2011 11:10 AM PST up reply actions
so we just have to hope
he really did get better and didn’t fluke into it. Gotta trust the scouts on this one.
Watch me all in flames, on a butterfly I ride
Oh he definitely got better, but even if you translate his college numbers straight to the pros you end up with Casey Janseen. He’s got a lot more getting better to do if we wants to reach Gary’s expectations.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 16, 2011 11:15 AM PST up reply actions
Said this a long time ago
Logan is either going to be a genius or a fool on this one.
If this had been a supplemental pick I’d have already moved on.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Nov 16, 2011 11:21 AM PST up reply actions
Good stuff from Baseball Prospectus about DIPS theory. This seems like a "well duh" sort of thing but it’s a great building block to work from. Basically:
The batter mostly controls the speed of the ball off the bat, but the pitcher’s influence does matter.
The harder a ball is hit the more likely it is to be a hit.
What this should lead to is an xBABIP stat for pitchers which could really help trying to evaluate guys like Jair Jurjenns.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 16, 2011 8:12 AM PST
It’s so difficult to get accurate readings though. It’s nearly impossible to tell if the speed being recorded is the bat speed or the ball exit speed.
Technology is an amazing thing. Hit F/X makes it possible.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 16, 2011 8:26 AM PST up reply actions
Am I reading this right?
In 2005, John Burnson found that pitchers did not have much impact on their rate of home runs allowed other than the extent to which they allowed outfield flies in general. (Dave Studeman created the xFIP statistic based upon this concept, normalizing not only a pitcher’s BABIP rate but also his rate of home runs allowed per outfield fly ball.)
In 2005 and 2006, respectively, J.C. Bradbury and David Gassko found that pitchers had no consistency from year to year in their rate of line drives allowed. They confirmed the finding that pitchers had little year-to-year consistency in the rate of home runs allowed on outfield flies, and they also observed some statistically-significant year-to-year correlation in pitchers’ popup rates.
Is he saying xFIP is meaningless?
That’s the exact opposite of what he’s saying. Since you can’t predict a pitchers home run/OFB rate it makes sense to regress it to the mean.
If you’re using pop ups in xFIP you are doing it wrong.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 16, 2011 8:35 AM PST up reply actions
Worry if they’re giving up more fly balls than before, don’t worry about the home runs.
Granted if he’s constantly giving up 400 foot+ bombs I’d start looking into it.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 16, 2011 8:42 AM PST up reply actions
Tough call here
Between EO, Webster and Reed. You can make fairly decent arguments for any of them to be number 2. I guess I’m leaning toward Webster, not exactly sure why….
Because he was fucking cute in that TV show with Alex Karras and that man in drag he married
by Hollywood Joe on Nov 16, 2011 8:31 AM PST up reply actions
As a kid, I was in love with the Popadopoulos’s fridge. It seemed like a walk-in fro my warped memory.
by Eric Stephen on Nov 16, 2011 8:32 AM PST up reply actions
Papadapolis…I’ve never actually looked it up until now.
Once we had a mini family reunion in Palm Springs, and I called to make a reservation at a local Mexican restaurant. I said the last name was Papadapolis and when the person on the other end of the phone asked me how to spell it I froze and just started laughing because I had no idea. But I faked it anyway.
by Eric Stephen on Nov 16, 2011 8:49 AM PST up reply actions
I had a weird group that always reserved as Fred, but spelled Phread.
I remember an old bank commercial (Crocker? Citizens?) that had a customer names Yanaropopopolous.
Follow @DavidYoungTBLA
- The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Nov 16, 2011 10:35 AM PST up reply actions
When I was a kid, my mother had a friend named Edith that went by the name Phred.
That really messed with the head of a 7-8-9yo, let me tell you.
There was a woman singer named Phranc
I used to see in clubs 25 years ago.
It's not what you look like, when you're doin' what you're doin'
It's what you're doin' when you're doin' what you look like you're doin'!
Webster had the 5th best swing and miss rate in the Southern League, with Withrow right behind him.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 16, 2011 8:37 AM PST up reply actions
Kind of confused why so many people are voting Webster ahead of Eo
Just because they’ve never seen Webster pitch and have seen Eo not look completely dominant?
Webbie has a lower ceiling and lower floor than Eo at this point.
Dodgers mgmt promoted Eo for a reason last summer…
Eovaldi’s floor is MLB reliever, Webster’s floor is MLB #4/5 starter, hey both have the same MLB #3 starter ceiling. Webster’s out pitch being a changeup, and it being good, gives him the nod over eovaldi. That said, I think Reed will be more successful than either of them.
I hope Reed turns out as good as you think he will.
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Nov 16, 2011 8:41 AM PST up reply actions
Dude.
Ihe doesn’t get hurt, he’s going to get the next big Dodger prospect contract after Kershaw signs his.
bold statement
wasn’t snarking you by the way
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Nov 16, 2011 8:45 AM PST up reply actions
I don’t remember anyone being that excited about Reed when we drafted him. He really has that much potential?
gotta love a pitcher
with a high 90s fastball and a good change up
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Nov 16, 2011 9:01 AM PST up reply actions
then you add the slider
and since he’s in the Dodger system, you know he’ll be learning a cutter.
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Nov 16, 2011 9:02 AM PST up reply actions
I would say Webster’s floor is not being a long term contributor in the bigs while Eo’s floor is late inning reliever.
Definitely. Websters floor is pitcing in Japan
by Michael White on Nov 16, 2011 9:30 AM PST up reply actions
At least for me:
-I’ve seen Eo pitch, he has a good fastball and not much else.
-The deeper you look at Eo’s numbers last year the worse he looks. His home runs were way suppressed so his SIERA was a run over his ERA. Also for a guy with as much strikeouts as Eo had in AA he wasn’t great at getting people to actually miss the ball. This might not be important, but it sure sounds good.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 16, 2011 8:41 AM PST up reply actions
Eo's always had a cartoonishly low HR/9 rate in the minors.
The thinking is that it’s a repeatable skill with him.
@TElciram
by Taylor Maricle on Nov 16, 2011 9:04 AM PST up reply actions
Just heard it thrown around a lot here. So ours, i guess.
It’s been consistently low, not just randomly low one year.
@TElciram
by Taylor Maricle on Nov 16, 2011 9:06 AM PST up reply actions
There are a few guys who can allow fly balls without home runs. Mostly Matt Cain. It’s a very rare ability and something you should give to a guy with 300 career innings.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 16, 2011 9:10 AM PST up reply actions
Eeesh, not something.
Webster was much more successful at keeping the ball on the ground than Eo at AA this year.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 16, 2011 9:12 AM PST up reply actions
Pretty sure Webster was much more successful at keeping the ball on the ground than Kershaw in AA too…
Point being, they are two different types of pitchers.
And Eo’s type of pitcher doesn’t translate to sustainable success.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 16, 2011 9:20 AM PST up reply actions
I would think
that has as much to do with where he plays as any sort of skill of his. How does he look outside SF?
Worse, but once you adjust for park he falls off about as much as any other pitcher would.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 16, 2011 10:45 AM PST up reply actions
HR/9
2011: 0.5
2011 (MiLB): 0.3
2010: 0.3
2009: 0.2
2008: 0.0
@TElciram
by Taylor Maricle on Nov 16, 2011 9:11 AM PST up reply actions
2011: AA
2010: R, A+ (i’m guessing the rookie starts were rehab stints?)
2009: A
2008: R
@TElciram
by Taylor Maricle on Nov 16, 2011 9:13 AM PST up reply actions
And the top 2011 rate is MLB
@TElciram
by Taylor Maricle on Nov 16, 2011 9:13 AM PST up reply actions
and when you compare it to other guys at his level
it still looks damn good.
Watch me all in flames, on a butterfly I ride
So what you're saying is
he’s Brad Penny without the fabulous hair.
There will be Type B free agents this offseason, clarifies Sherman in a tweet
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Nov 16, 2011 8:49 AM PST reply actions
Rosenthal was talking yesterday on MLB Network (similar to what Sherman had) about there being tiers of Type As this winter, i.e. the Takashi Saitos of the world who have no business being Type As, providing compensation to the old team but at no cost to the new team. But for this year only.
by Eric Stephen on Nov 16, 2011 8:51 AM PST up reply actions
You can always decline arbitration. Saito wasn’t offered.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 16, 2011 8:56 AM PST up reply actions
I mean accept.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 16, 2011 8:57 AM PST up reply actions
true, and for a guy as old as saito he’s probably getting a 1 year deal anyway, so it’d make sense. Dote however might be holdin out for a 2 year deal.
If a man who has been on eight teams in the last five years thinks he can get a two year deal
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 16, 2011 9:03 AM PST up reply actions
He famously played for four teams in 1977 (Mets, then Padres, then Angels, then Yankees). New York acquired him on September 15 so he was ineligible for the postseason.
by Eric Stephen on Nov 16, 2011 9:12 AM PST up reply actions
77: Reggie Jackson’s bat
78: Reggie Jackson’s right buttcheek
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Nov 16, 2011 9:16 AM PST up reply actions
Joel Youngblood isn’t that impressed.
"It's supposed to be hard. If it wasn't hard, everyone would do it. The hard... is what makes it great."
That was one of my favorite things about the Guinness Book of World Records
by Eric Stephen on Nov 16, 2011 9:21 AM PST up reply actions
We were clearly the same kind of baseball nerds as kids.
"It's supposed to be hard. If it wasn't hard, everyone would do it. The hard... is what makes it great."
How else were we to know Nolan Ryan topped out at exactly 100.9 mph?
by Eric Stephen on Nov 16, 2011 9:33 AM PST up reply actions
Or about Ernie Shore? Or Harvey Haddix? Or Bill Wambsgnass!
"It's supposed to be hard. If it wasn't hard, everyone would do it. The hard... is what makes it great."
Yes!
I’m fairly certain I learned about Nate Colbert’s doubleheader there too, though Topps lent a hand as well.
Also, Satchel Paige pitching at 59
by Eric Stephen on Nov 16, 2011 9:37 AM PST up reply actions
Where ever he goes I hope it’s somewhere new.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 16, 2011 9:04 AM PST up reply actions
Is there someone with 13 teams? I can’t remember.
I remember Juan Beniquez was the go-to guy for years for “guy who played for a shload of teams”
by Eric Stephen on Nov 16, 2011 9:05 AM PST up reply actions
Matt Stairs is the leader with 13.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 16, 2011 9:07 AM PST up reply actions
Mike Morgan is definitely well-traveled.
At some point, my brother and I were trying to figure out how many players played for everyone in the NL West. We came up with Matt Herges and Steve Finley. Anyone else?
"It's supposed to be hard. If it wasn't hard, everyone would do it. The hard... is what makes it great."
I believe that is the full list.
Mark Sweeney never got to Arizona.
by Eric Stephen on Nov 16, 2011 9:42 AM PST up reply actions
November 23 is the date for offering arb
by Eric Stephen on Nov 16, 2011 8:57 AM PST up reply actions
Check that, December 1 (players have until December 7 to decline). I had seen some conflicting info.
by Eric Stephen on Nov 16, 2011 9:31 AM PST up reply actions
My ex g/f was a Type A, and I never got any compensation when that ended. :-/
Anyway, carry on.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
You should have offered arb / paid more attention to her
by Eric Stephen on Nov 16, 2011 4:22 PM PST up reply actions
He was afraid what she might be awarded in arbitration, like a ring in a box.
Follow @DavidYoungTBLA
- The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Speaking yesterday about the Dodgers payroll being less this year
One way to do it is to have Matt Kemp’s 2012 salary by about $10 million, per Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi at Fox Sports.
Could be that plus a signing bonus.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 16, 2011 8:57 AM PST up reply actions
True, but it wouldn’t surprise me if that was the total payment either.
by Eric Stephen on Nov 16, 2011 8:58 AM PST up reply actions
makes me wonder if they're trying to create flexibility for something
if not now, then at the trading deadline.
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Nov 16, 2011 9:04 AM PST up reply actions
i’ll take it
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Nov 16, 2011 9:07 AM PST up reply actions
McCourt suing Fox
per Shaikin. Also this:
In order to get McCourt to sell, MLB agreed to sit out Fox vs #Dodgers war. MLB believes Fox will win but Selig bargained away his leverage.
Right, but he has already agreed to sell. Is the thinking that getting the TV rights auctioned increases the value of the team?
that’s what he said publicly. that having the higher income for the next two years would increase the team’s value, but I see it as a down payment on the sale.
It would seem to me that an ongoing lawsuit would decrease the value of the team during the sale process. Or maybe the sale can’t go through until this is resolved?
it’s Fox v Dodgers, not Fox v McCourt, so if the team gets sold before the sale is finalized the lawsuit will continue. I’m not sure a new owner wouldn’t want to make more money in the next two years.
Don't think the lawsuit would continue
because the team will no longer be in bankruptcy. The only reason Frank even has a leg to stand on in terms of altering the contract with Fox is because of the BK.
Id assume this would have to be through the bk court
only a bk judge can nullify a contract like this.. unless mccourt feels like there was some sort of breach on fox’s end that makes the deal null and void.. either way this seems stupid to me.
by hee came hee seop'd he choi'd on Nov 16, 2011 9:19 AM PST up reply actions
what an asshole
he should just be content with the money he gets from the sale. stop giving all of it away to lawyers.
by hee came hee seop'd he choi'd on Nov 16, 2011 9:09 AM PST up reply actions
great, how long is this shit gonna take?
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Nov 16, 2011 9:12 AM PST up reply actions
Kemp’s contract has a TV ratings escalator clause. Need to finalize that language.
by Eric Stephen on Nov 16, 2011 9:13 AM PST up reply actions
In case anyone was wondering the asking price for Gio Gonzalez from the everything must go A's...
Marlins’ beat writer Joe Frisaro of MLB.com has the answer:
The belief is the Marlins said no when the A’s were asking for Logan Morrison, Ricky Nolasco and two top prospects for Gonzalez. The Minor Leaguers the A’s were said to be coveting were outfielders Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna, two promising talents who were part of low Class A Greensboro’s championship team.
No, Nolasco comp has to be Billingsley
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
We don’t got a Logan Morrison comp though Sands comes the closest.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
If we combine Sands the hitter (and fielder) and Gordon’s prolific tweeting habits, we might have something close.
by Eric Stephen on Nov 16, 2011 9:39 AM PST up reply actions
That home run rate from Nolasco is holding him back from being a great number 2 pitcher
damn
TBLA 2011 Postseason Prediction Champion
I like Nolasco
Fuck giving up walks but the hits and HRs will increase.. give him a good defense and watch him shine
by NotJoeTorre on Nov 16, 2011 12:59 PM PST up reply actions
put him in Safeco, Petco, ATT
and he becomes a great pitcher
TBLA 2011 Postseason Prediction Champion
If you think Beane<rosin bag sure.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 16, 2011 9:38 AM PST up reply actions
nolasco and morrison
are major leaguers with a couple seasons in between them
by hee came hee seop'd he choi'd on Nov 16, 2011 9:38 AM PST up reply actions
I would love to be a gm
and just troll the shit out of everyone at the beginning of trade talks..
‘lets see you want gio? i’d say my asking price is josh johnson, jeff loria’s wife, the new stadium and maybe throw in Hanley too…’
by hee came hee seop'd he choi'd on Nov 16, 2011 9:37 AM PST up reply actions
Trading Gio Gonzalez
is incredibly hard
magnae clunes mihi placent, nec possum de hac re mentiri.
quis enim, consortes mei, non fateatur
by Humma Kavula on Nov 16, 2011 10:03 AM PST up reply actions
how many teams has pitched on now?
DO NOT ADVISE
by NotJoeTorre on Nov 16, 2011 12:41 PM PST up reply actions
Gonzalez? Three orgs - Chisox, Phillies, A's
This I had forgotten about Gonzalez
December 6, 2006: Traded by the Philadelphia Phillies with Gavin Floyd to the Chicago White Sox for Freddy Garcia.Garcia pitched in 11 games, became a FA. Not a good trade for Phi in retrospect.
Follow @DavidYoungTBLA
- The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Lee
Webster
Eovaldi
Reed
Withrow
Gould
So none in the top six unless Pederson breaks in. Two sounds right but they will be at the back end
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Who has a better shot from our positional prospects? They all seem like 4th OF types, Van Slyke just being the closest.
Pederson
Garcia
Baldwin
all have a shot
Not totally writing off Lemmerman yet
Guys like Van Slyke, Silverio, Soncgo all have shots at having productive careers ala a Matt Diaz type.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Nov 16, 2011 10:09 AM PST up reply actions
Right
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Nov 16, 2011 10:22 AM PST up reply actions
Yeah, I guess it comes down to how projectable you think those guys are. Pederson, Garcia, and Baldwin are all pretty young but have tools. As of right now, I’d put Van Slyke in the top 10 just because he is most likely to make an impact even though it may be minimal.
Where could he play that he could have an impact, even minimal in 2012? Most of us expect FedEx to be the starting catcher in 2013, I guess Van Slyke could be targeted for 1st Base in 2013 as well. Maybe you are right
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Nov 16, 2011 10:19 AM PST up reply actions
he could have done what we’re paying Rivera to do
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Nov 16, 2011 10:21 AM PST up reply actions
You’d think so
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Nov 16, 2011 10:22 AM PST up reply actions
Ned doesn’t
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Nov 16, 2011 10:23 AM PST up reply actions
Doesn’t sound like he has much support other then from Canuck and myself.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
we are voting until 20
but #‘16-20 will be in a single vote, where you rank your top 5 remaining and i’ll assign point values
by Brandon Lennox on Nov 16, 2011 10:28 AM PST up reply actions
He might get there by process of elimination.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 16, 2011 9:53 AM PST up reply actions
I haven't seen the breakdown of the Jamey Carroll contract yet
but it is official now. Two year deal with a mutual option for 2014. Lavelle Neale has the option details:
It includes a $250,000 buyout and an option for 2014 that becomes effective if Carroll gets more than 400 at-bats. If he passes that threshold, he can accept $2 million and play for the Twins in 2014 or turn it down and become a free agent.
Apples to apples
3 years, $8.5 million vs. 3 years, $13.5 million
by Eric Stephen on Nov 16, 2011 9:45 AM PST up reply actions
because Carroll’s is a vesting option that I’m sure he’ll get. 400 AB would let him miss like 6 weeks.
13 middle infielders at age 39 have had 400 PA. 6 since WWII.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 16, 2011 9:50 AM PST up reply actions
how many of those guys played in a world where OBP wa sso highly valued? They just gave 2 years to a 37 year old with 0 HR and 14RBI each of the last two years. They know what they’re getting and presumably like what Carroll des offer. Unless they have some stud SS or the new GM makes a trade, he’s going to start for them until he stops getting on base.
I am not sure he will get 400 PA in 2013
by Eric Stephen on Nov 16, 2011 9:50 AM PST up reply actions
Me either. Minnesota could try to acquire a new starting middle infielder for 2013 (do they have a prospect in waiting?) relegating Carroll to the bench and much lower AB totals.
Follow @DavidYoungTBLA
- The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Nov 16, 2011 12:40 PM PST up reply actions
Anyone want to guess how many 40 year old middle infielders made it to 200 PA?
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 16, 2011 9:47 AM PST up reply actions
Yes.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 16, 2011 9:49 AM PST up reply actions
Ding. 10 of them are or will be Hall of Famers.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 16, 2011 9:51 AM PST up reply actions
Concepcion isn’t actually in the Hall. Make it 9.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 16, 2011 9:52 AM PST up reply actions
1965 Trivia
What pitcher threw two no – hitters for ten innings, lost the first game in the 11th when he gave up two hits and one run, and won the second 1 – 0?
He also pitched a one hitter on opening day same season. 30 IP, three hits allowed in those three games.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Nobody has answered this yet
But how effing good would the Big Red Machine have been if this dude was healthy past age 29? Scary to think about.
by Eric Stephen on Nov 16, 2011 10:04 AM PST up reply actions
At the time I was happy that Maloney, Nolan, and Simpson did not last long. I guess it was the price the Reds paid for having such an awesome lineup, of those guys arms had not blown up, the juggernaut would have blown through the 70’s like the 27 Yankee’s.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Nov 16, 2011 10:11 AM PST up reply actions
And just after that Gullett.
Follow @DavidYoungTBLA
- The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Nov 16, 2011 12:42 PM PST up reply actions
Kevin Goldstein spoke with an MLB executive trying to craft team-specific trades for Cole Hamels, for both BP and ESPN. For the Dodgers, the proposed trade was Gordon, Webster, and Baldwin, This was part of the explanation:
"The problem is that their system is all pitching, and there just isn’t someone who can headline the deal," explained the executive. This is why Gordon would be included; he would become an immediate Rollins replacement and provide the Phillies with some financial flexibility. Webster is a mid-rotation prospect with a 2013 timetable, while Baldwin is the perfect Phillie as a 20-year-old with some of the best tools around, but he’s still learning how to play baseball.
Free Agent in 2012 to be Cole Hamels?
I would do this deal in a heartbeat if the Dodgers were going to have a $150 payroll in 2012 and sign Reyes to be our SS for the future while we go all in on 2012. Otherwise what is the point?
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
I would do it and make it the new owner’s first order of business to get both young left-handed starters signed to extensions.
by Eric Stephen on Nov 16, 2011 9:56 AM PST up reply actions
Mostly because we’d finally get a first-place CYA vote from Gaslamp Ball.
by Eric Stephen on Nov 16, 2011 9:58 AM PST up reply actions
Because with new ownership you might have the money to re-sign Hamels anyway. And in the short term (next season) you certainly coming out ahead.
For the Dodgers, the long term play is a new owner that can buy us nice things. In the short term, a trade like this makes the team quite competitive next season with a guy who would be one of the best SP2s in the NL.
by Michael White on Nov 16, 2011 9:56 AM PST up reply actions
I was going to say Hamels seems like the type of guy who will test free agency to get every penny, but being from SD he might lik pitching close to home.
But to answer your question, Charles Johnson. Assuming he waives his no-trade clause. A mere formality.
by Eric Stephen on Nov 16, 2011 10:01 AM PST up reply actions
Uribe, A Miles type. Doesn’t matter. Gordon has a realistic shot of being essentially replacement level. Hamels is a top starting pitcher in the NL
The difference of throwing Hamels vs. Eovaldi/Eveland is much larger than the difference between Gordon and the Miles type player.
by Michael White on Nov 16, 2011 10:02 AM PST up reply actions
and they didn’t trade him for guys who are better than Hamels
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Nov 16, 2011 10:03 AM PST up reply actions
There’s no way Gordon has replacement level defense or speed.
by silverwidow on Nov 16, 2011 10:05 AM PST up reply actions
He was well below replacement level defense last year. And speed only matters if he can get on base. He doesn’t walk so he’ll need to keep a .350+ BABIP just to get on base enough to make a difference on the basepaths.
by Michael White on Nov 16, 2011 10:08 AM PST up reply actions
Hamels is one of my favorite pitchers, but if he is only replacing Kuroda this seems like a pointless trade. This is not a competitive team in that scenario to trade Gordon for exactly one year of Hamels.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Nov 16, 2011 10:07 AM PST up reply actions
Why not? The team was competive last year and Gordon was a 0.6 fWAR player. Hamels is better than Kuroda so I think you’d be notably upgrading from last years squad.
by Michael White on Nov 16, 2011 10:10 AM PST up reply actions
Because no one believes Jim Loney is going to slug .600 again for two months. Gordon would be gone and he was a solid catalyst in Aug/Sep. Rivera is being asked to replicate the luckiest RISP of his career. We have downgraded at 2nd. And Uribe is simply not any fucking good. And Matt Kemp is not going to be Matt Kemp MVP unless he’s now a HOF type of player. Maybe he is, but it still wasn’t enough to turn this team from anything other then a .500 team. The change over from Kuroda to Hamels, minus Gordon does not seem like a plus to me.
As I said, if this is in addition to Kuroda, or we sign a stud SS for now and the future then sign me up.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Nov 16, 2011 10:17 AM PST up reply actions
All fair points
Regarding Loney, I completely agree that he can’t replicate the insane pace he ended the year at, but I also doubt he’ll have months where he slugs .230 (July.) He finished 2011 with an OPS of .755 which compares to an OPS of .723 in 2010, .756 in 2009 and .772 in 2011. The evidence suggests that’s about the type of hitter he is and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends the season next year close to what he ended 2011 at.
I’m less concerned about dumping Gordon than you are (and I’m a bit more bullish on Uribe than you and everybody else is,) so for me, if you add Hamels and keep Kuroda, this is a done deal.
by Michael White on Nov 16, 2011 10:24 AM PST up reply actions
Sorry, I misread your last sentence. You said “or sign stud SS” not “and sign stud SS” so I think we agree.
by Michael White on Nov 16, 2011 10:25 AM PST up reply actions
fWAR is cumulative
0.6 in 56 G, 233 PA. At that rate, that’s around 1.8 for a full year. Sure, in a full year his expected outcome can range wildly, but 0.6 is underselling him.
Follow @DavidYoungTBLA
- The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Nov 16, 2011 12:46 PM PST up reply actions
The team last year was competive and that’s what he put up. That’s what would need to be replaced to replicate last years success if he were gone.
by Michael White on Nov 16, 2011 12:58 PM PST up reply actions
That is a misleading outlook. What needs to be replaced to replicate last year are all of the innings we got at SS last year from Furcal, Carroll and Gordon. Two of those are replaced with nothing so far.
Follow @DavidYoungTBLA
- The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Dumb question
Why would a team that has a system that is all pitching and has payroll issues trade the few positional prospects it has for a pitcher — albeit a great one — who will be a free agent in a year?
If the answer is “Because it’s Cole Hamels,” I will accept that.
magnae clunes mihi placent, nec possum de hac re mentiri.
quis enim, consortes mei, non fateatur
by Humma Kavula on Nov 16, 2011 10:09 AM PST up reply actions
Because it's Cole Hamels
They call me the thread killer
by Greg Stephen on Nov 16, 2011 10:16 AM PST up reply actions
Short sighted?
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Nov 16, 2011 10:17 AM PST up reply actions
Again with the short jokes.
Look, I think you said it best above. If 2012 was the all-in year and you got Reyes, that trade makes a lot of sense. You give up three pretty good prospects and 17 years of MLB service time for one year of one of the top-five pitchers in the NL. I do that trade in an all-in year and see if I can sign Hamels to an extension in the process.
In a year like the Dodgers are facing, such a deal has to be dependent on getting a long-term deal done. It’s Cole Hamels. If giving up those three players is the price for exclusive rights to lock up a top-five pitcher for years to come, I just might pull the trigger on that.
If it’s just a straight up trade — those three guys, one year of Hamels, good luck to everybody — I don’t do that deal this year.
magnae clunes mihi placent, nec possum de hac re mentiri.
quis enim, consortes mei, non fateatur
by Humma Kavula on Nov 16, 2011 10:22 AM PST up reply actions
Yup, that said I would love Hamels and Reyes in Dodger Blue and we can bring in Ruiz and Victorino in 2013:)
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Nov 16, 2011 10:25 AM PST up reply actions
Good gravy, why not bring in AJ Pierzynski too. And maybe Gerardo Parra.
magnae clunes mihi placent, nec possum de hac re mentiri.
quis enim, consortes mei, non fateatur
by Humma Kavula on Nov 16, 2011 10:28 AM PST up reply actions
Putting Carlos Ruiz in Dodger blue
might cause a paradox in Humma’s brain that causes him to instantly become a Giant fan or something, just so “Fuck You Carlos Ruiz” remains in effect.
This leads to a question. When a player you hate signs with your team, how do you feel about it?
I mean, let’s say this is an alternate universe where the Yankees let Jeter go. He signs with LA. Nolij, your thoughts?
magnae clunes mihi placent, nec possum de hac re mentiri.
quis enim, consortes mei, non fateatur
by Humma Kavula on Nov 16, 2011 11:02 AM PST up reply actions
Depends on why the hatred.
Gary Sheffield was someone who I respected as a hitter but was never able to get past the vile baby behavior he displayed as a 20 year old for the Brewers. It made it very hard to root for the Dodgers when he replaced my favorite player even though he was just as good a hitter.
Juan Pierre might be the closest but I never hated the man, just the player.
I’m not sure if there is a player today who I “hate”. Brian Wilson comes close. I did hate Roger Clemens. That would have been tough to root for him.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Nov 16, 2011 11:13 AM PST up reply actions
Who has been the most hated FA
the Dodgers have signed in the last 25 years? Hated previously to signing with the Dodgers that is. Kent?
Kent because he was a Giant but his skill was well respected
Juan Pierre because everyone and I mean everyone but Ned knew that was a bad deal
But 25 years is along time. I’d have to actually go back to through the transactions and see if something pops into my memory.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Nov 16, 2011 11:19 AM PST up reply actions
I don't know
the angels gave GMJ more money, they might have though the Pierre deal was good.
Watch me all in flames, on a butterfly I ride
After I regain my voice from the primal scream, I more or less get over it. At the time we acquired Sheffield, he was definitely one of my least favorites, if not my absolute least favorite. Whenever he came to bat, I always wanted him to do good things, but I never rooted for him. When they’d announce him during games and stuff, I didn’t cheer or boo. I probably clapped quietly. If he drove in a run or something, I would then cheer for the Dodgers’ run-having. I expect I would be similar with #2.
"It's supposed to be hard. If it wasn't hard, everyone would do it. The hard... is what makes it great."
Also, I’m an empty shell of a man, a pitiful excuse for a human being, so there’s that.
magnae clunes mihi placent, nec possum de hac re mentiri.
quis enim, consortes mei, non fateatur
by Humma Kavula on Nov 16, 2011 11:07 AM PST up reply actions
If Delias had not spent his whole life in one town, he wouldn’t have much of a leg to stand on.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Nov 16, 2011 11:14 AM PST up reply actions
You follow the Raiders after their move, after all.
Follow @DavidYoungTBLA
- The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Nov 16, 2011 12:49 PM PST up reply actions
One need look no further than the list of names at the top of this page to see this probably wouldn’t be a good move. We have arms in spades. Hell, I don’t think it is inconceivable that in 2013 we could get pitching contributions from RDLR, Webster, Eovaldi, and possibly Lee and Reed. We need to keep the few positional players we have.
Counting on your system graduating more than one better than fringe player a year means you have a better than average farm system.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 16, 2011 10:24 AM PST up reply actions
I don’t think it is too much of a stretch to think that RDLR and at least Eovaldi provide some value to the pitching staff in 2013.
Sure, that’s reasonable. Five arms by 2013 is getting greedy.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 16, 2011 10:27 AM PST up reply actions
Neither of those guys are in the trade
So if those guys provide the value in 2013 and you get Cole for next year, win/win!
by Michael White on Nov 16, 2011 10:32 AM PST up reply actions
Given that Rubby's arm is now a massive question mark
its safe to assume you can’t assume anything with him until he actually gets back on the mound.
We already graduated Rubby, so I think counting on him for the rotation in 2013 makes perfect sense. Eovaldi is going to be in the rotation at some point in 2012.
I don’t expect to see either Lee or Reed in any meaningful starts in 2013.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Nov 16, 2011 10:26 AM PST up reply actions
Eh, most of those guys will end up sucking.
by Michael White on Nov 16, 2011 10:26 AM PST up reply actions
Right, he didn’t include Gould:)
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Nov 16, 2011 10:28 AM PST up reply actions
Totally forgot about him. My point is, we have 4-5 pitchers that could be reasonably expected to provide some value over the next 2-3 years. We need another elite hitter, not to trade our cost-controlled SS.
In an off season in which Jose Reyes is available, I’d make that trade. What I don’t understand is why the Phillies don’t simply sign Jose Reyes and trade Cole Hamels to the Yankee’s or Red Sox.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Nov 16, 2011 10:33 AM PST up reply actions
I think the tone of Goldstein’s answer suggests that the Phillies need to seriously bring down payroll (especially after giving Papelbon the richest deal ever for a reliever.) So unloading Cole but bringing in Reyes (rather than Dee) wouldn’t really solve the problem.
by Michael White on Nov 16, 2011 10:36 AM PST up reply actions
For a team who is supposed to be moving toward a $175 payroll, having holes at SS, LF, and RF is a bit surprising. Add in the health factors of Howard / Utely, the age of Polanco, and the impending Free Agents of Victorino and Ruiz, not sure if Halladay / Lee is going to be enough for them.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Nov 16, 2011 10:41 AM PST up reply actions
If Victorino doesn’t repeat last year the Phillies offense is straight up bad right now. There’s no way they can afford to lose good players at this point.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 16, 2011 10:43 AM PST up reply actions
The trouble is that we don’t know what Dee Gordon is yet. There were major questions about his bat going into last year. He had about 100 PA in the majors through August to the tune of a 518 OPS and that will not cut it. Then he got very hot in September for an 850 OPS for the month and that will cut it quite nicely.
So the question is to what extent one thinks Gordon has answered the questions, and to what extent one thinks it matters. On the one hand, I’d say it doesn’t matter if he’s cost-controlled if he can’t put up a 650 OPS in 700 PA… but on the other hand, the alternatives will all cost a lot more and maybe for incremental improvement.
magnae clunes mihi placent, nec possum de hac re mentiri.
quis enim, consortes mei, non fateatur
by Humma Kavula on Nov 16, 2011 10:42 AM PST up reply actions
If he stays healthy, he will contribute positively on offense, OPS is simply a sucky indicator when the main game is game wrecking speed. I’ve always maintained his defense is what will decide his ultimate value. He looks to have it.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Nov 16, 2011 10:46 AM PST up reply actions
Most of Dee’s first stints came when I was out of commission/busy with work, so I didn’t see a lot of him sucking at the plate. Most of what I saw of Dee was in September, when he was awesome.
But I’m still not a believer. OPS is a sucky stat in a lot of ways, but 650 OPS is low enough. That’s not such a high hurdle to clear with the bat for his game-wrecking speed to have a great effect. If he can’t clear that hurdle, it might be an issue…. or maybe it won’t, as long as he is paid so little.
magnae clunes mihi placent, nec possum de hac re mentiri.
quis enim, consortes mei, non fateatur
by Humma Kavula on Nov 16, 2011 10:50 AM PST up reply actions
just my opinion
if Dee has a OPS of .650 its gonna be .350 OBP and .300 SLG.. I’ll take that for the next 3 seasons
by NotJoeTorre on Nov 16, 2011 12:45 PM PST up reply actions
When you hit .320 you don’t need to walk much to get there:)
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
but if he hits .320... His slugging Percentage will be Over .320
thus his OPS will be higher then .650
so .320/.350/.350 is what i expect if he has an OBP of .350
but really hes prob gonna do .290/.325/.325 for your OPS of .650
Good point.
Players with a BA > .310
Less then 50 walks
Stole at least 50 bases
Player HR SB BA BB Year Age CS OBP SLG OPS Pos
Cesar Cedeno 25 56 .320 41 1973 22 15 .376 .537 .913 *8
Carl Crawford 11 50 .315 32 2007 25 10 .355 .466 .820 *7/D
Willie McGee 10 56 .353 34 1985 26 16 .384 .503 .887 *8/7
Lance Johnson 9 50 .333 33 1996 32 12 .362 .479 .841 *8
Ichiro Suzuki 8 56 .350 30 2001 27 14 .381 .457 .838 *9/D
Eric Young 8 53 .324 47 1996 29 19 .393 .421 .814 *4
Kenny Lofton 7 54 .310 40 1995 28 15 .362 .453 .815 *8/D
Willie Wilson 6 83 .315 28 1979 23 12 .351 .420 .771 *78/9D
Damaso Garcia 5