2012 TBLA #11 Dodger Prospect Discussion
Tim Federowicz won the run-off vote for the #9 prospect but a few votes, becoming the second offensive player to crack the TBLA list. The tear he went on in AAA and the fact that he is so close to the big leagues seems to have won people over.
Also, I'm naming the loser of the run-off, James Baldwin III, as the #10 TBLA prospect. While I'm sure that not all of the FedEx supports would vote Baldwin in at #10, based on the last few votes it seems pretty clear that Baldwin would come out on top if we had done another vote.
We'll continue doing single votes up through prospect #15, then for 16 - 20 we'll have one final vote where I'll let everyone rank the remaining players. For this next round, I've added a few names to the list of eligible candidates, but as always let me know if I am missing anyone you want to vote for.
Here are the candidates for the Dodgers #11 prospect:
Alfredo Silverio - OF (24.5 years old) - Signed way back in 2003, Silverio finally figured out how to make good use of the athleticism that scouts have seen in him for years. This past season the outfielder led the Southern League in total bases, and hit .306 with 16 homers and a .883 OPS. He also showed good speed with a minor league high 18 triples, but was caught in 12 of his 23 SB attempts. While he spent most of the 2011 in center field, it remains to be seen if he'll be able to handle that position at the big league level.
Angelo Songco - 1B (23 years old) - Songco had a monster season for the Quakes in 2011, leading the California League in doubles and total bases while hitting .313 with 29 homers and 114 RBI's. He's always had a ton of raw power, and it finally showed this past year. He made the switch from left field to 1st base during the season, but overall doesn't have much defensive value so he's going to have to continue to hit as he moves up through the system.
Alex Santana - 3B (18.25 years old) - The 2011 2nd round pick struggled a bit in his professional debut as he hit just .238 average and struck out in 31.2% of his plate appearances, but he's extremely young and raw so those numbers don't mean a whole lot. Santana has good bloodlines, and at 6'4" he's got a great baseball frame. According to Arizona Dodger manager Jody Reed, he has the potential to be a 5-tool player in the future as he has all the skills, just needs to put it all together.
Ethan Martin - RHP (22.5 years old) - Martin was moved to the bullpen midway through the 2011 season, and showed solid improvement as he had a 4.02 ERA in AA with a 9.6 K/9 through 40.1 innings. The former 1st round pick has electric stuff, including a fastball that can reach 98 mph and a big curveball, but he struggles with control. He's still very young so it's possible that he moves back to the rotation at some point, but for now he is going to try to make it to the show as a hard throwing reliever.
Jonathan Garcia - OF (20 years old) - Garcia got off to a hot start in 2011 and showed good power throughout the season with 19 homers, but he ended the year in a major slump and hit just .228 for the season. He was one of the youngest players in the Midwest League, however, and has plenty of time to improve and mature. On defense Garcia has a strong arm and should be able to handle right field as he moves up through the system.
Aaron Miller - LHP (24 years old) - Miller was hampered by injuries throughout 2011 and in essence had a lost season as he threw just 34 innings. Even when he was healthy, the 2009 1st round pick was uncharacteristically wild and had an ERA of almost 4 for the Quakes. That being said, at his best Miller features a sneaky fastball and an above average slider. He also shows potential for a slider and I expect that he'll be fully healthy in 2012.
Angel Sanchez - RHP (22 years old) - Sanchez literally came out of nowhere in 2011 and had a very good season for the Great Lakes Loons. Signed out of the Dominican Republic, he jumped straight to the Midwest League and had a 2.82 ERA, a 3.46 FIP, a 7.6 K/9, and a .198 batting average against. He throws a hard fastball that can reach 97 mph, and he also has a curveball and changeup.
Alex Castellanos - OF (25.25 years old) - Castellanos made a great impression on Dodger prospect fans after joining the team in the Furcal trade as he posted a 1.009 OPS in his 32 games with the Lookouts, connecting on 4 homers, driving in 23 runs, and walking almost as much as he struck out. There has been talk about converting him to either 2nd base or 1st base since the Dodger have a crowded minor league outfield, so it will be interesting to see where he plays next season. He's listed at 5'11" and despite good home run numbers in 2011, he doesn't necessarily project as a true power threat at the big league level.
Griff Erickson - C (23.5 years old) - The switch hitting catcher had a breakout season in 2011, posting a combined .866 OPS between HiA and AA and smacking 13 homers. He also posted an impressive strikeout to walk ratio, and showed strong defensive skills behind the plate. Erickson is still at least a year away from the big leagues, but he's just 23 years old so he's in a good spot.
Scott Van Slyke - OF/1B (25.25 years old) - Van Slyke had the biggest season of his 7 year minor league career in 2011 while playing with the Lookouts. He led the team in every significant offensive category except for runs and stolen bases, and even won the league batting title with a .348 average. His SLG %, OB%, and OPS all ranked 2nd in the league, and his big season earned him a spot on the Dodgers 40 man roster. He doesn't have much defensive value, so he'll have to continue hitting to make it to the show.
Blake Smith - OF (23.75 years old) - A sports hernia injury forced Smith to miss about 6 weeks of the 2011 season, but when healthy Blake was a force to be reckoned with. The 2009 2nd round pick crushed 20 homers in just 313 at bats (including a short rehab), and with the Quakes he had a OPS of almost .900. Smith is a great right fielder with a cannon for an arm, and he recorded 13 outfield assists this past season.
Kyle Russell - OF (25.25 years old) - As we all know by now, Russell is a power hitter that has a knack for striking out. In 2011 Kyle spent most of his season in AA, and with the Lookouts he hit 19 homers while striking out in 32.2% of his plate appearances. The lefty hits right handers very well, so the thought is that at the very least he'll has value at the big leagues as a pinch hitter.
Jake Lemmerman - SS (22.5 years old) - The 2010 MVP of the Pioneer League had a much more average season in 2011, but he did manage to make his way all the way to AA in just his second professional season. Late Night combined for 10 homers and a .785 OPS this past season, and continuing to spend all his time at shortstop. A future move to 2nd or 3rd base might be required thanks to Dee Gordon, but no matter what position he plays he's going to have to continue hitting if he wants to make it to the show.
Again, please use this post as the discussion thread, and cast your actual vote in this Fanpost.
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"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Nov 30, 2011 8:19 AM PST via iPhone app reply actions
I love songco, but the fact that castellanos was banging in the Texas League and apparently has some positional value, I’m going with that.
Do you think he’s better than Delwyn Young? Or is this where you’d rank Young from a few years ago?
by Michael White on Nov 30, 2011 8:22 AM PST up reply actions
Not sure. Was Young ever considered a starter, or a super-sub type guy?
by Michael White on Nov 30, 2011 8:25 AM PST up reply actions
dodgers starting 2nd baseman
unless sellers beats him to it
Watch me all in flames, on a butterfly I ride
I voted for Garcia, but as soon as he wins a vote i’m starting the Lemmerman train
TBLA 2011 Postseason Prediction Champion
I am with u IVdown….ready for the lemmerman train. Middle infielders with pop are the shiz
"They will never ketchup to all of the energy that I've mustard"
by VeroJoe on Nov 30, 2011 8:44 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Solve the mystery:
Player A: .293/.379/.420
Player B: .277/.349/.430
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 30, 2011 8:47 AM PST up reply actions
Player A is Lemmerman in Hi A this year, not sure about player B.
TBLA 2011 Postseason Prediction Champion
Player B is the average player in the Cal League.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 30, 2011 8:50 AM PST up reply actions
gscott might tell you that's 1 extra walk every 2 weeks or something
But I’m with you, that’s a good OBP there.
TBLA 2011 Postseason Prediction Champion
the difference between most players is actually very small when broken down like that
aint it yall
Watch me all in flames, on a butterfly I ride
He’s gonna shock the world.
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Nov 30, 2011 8:31 AM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
If you didn’t like Russell back when he was in Hi-A, why do you support Songo? Is it all the strikeout rate? At least Russell was projected to have defensive value and he put up (other than the K%) better numbers.
by Michael White on Nov 30, 2011 8:33 AM PST up reply actions
I think contact rates are huge indicators of future performance. Pitches get tougher to hit as you move up (or at least better located) so if you strike out a ton in Lo-A, unless you develop your pitch recognition (totally possible) or approach, you’re going to hit a wall. I care a lot about how often did you put the ball in play, and how often was it hit hard in play? That, and 500 foot homers are friggin sweet. Means you could “just miss” and still hit it out of any ballpark.
G Scott
Wily Mo Pena fan
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Nov 30, 2011 8:46 AM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
should have signed him
Instead of Rivera
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Nov 30, 2011 8:47 AM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
He might be higher to some people (not many) because he is in AAA
His numbers definitely dipped last year, but being this close, it’s a possibility he could get a cup of coffee in 2012 and maybe a miracle could happen and he’d actually be able to hit MLB pitching…
It’s probably a dream, but he’s already this close to the majors, I don’t see him not at least getting some ABs as a backup in september.
TBLA 2011 Postseason Prediction Champion
You know what
Taking a look at his numbers, I’d be ok with him being around 15 on this list or so. His power dropped off in AAA (and AA for that matter), but his OBP was still really good for his really bad batting averages.
I’m going Garcia, Lemmerman, Griff, and then Russell (and Castle right after).
TBLA 2011 Postseason Prediction Champion
I'm shocked I like Griff more than most
He’s a catcher who actually showed he has a bat in AA this year. He didn’t hit in Lo A 2 years ago, but he hit in Rookie Ball 3 years ago, so it’s not the first time he’s ever shown he can hit (even if it was rookie ball).
That said, I don’t have the highest hopes for him, but I do have some.
TBLA 2011 Postseason Prediction Champion
Have to admit the scouts have me scared on him. I specifically asked someone who was at the AFL this year what they thought and he did not have anything positive to say about him. He’s not young for the AFL. I hope he was just fatigued but for now he’s in Missouri mode.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
That does sound pretty scary
I suppose this year will be the test, though.
TBLA 2011 Postseason Prediction Champion
Man, Silverio is really F-ing intriguing. Love that he was chosen for the Future’s Game. I’m not concerned about the stolen base % as that is more of a skill that gets developed, but the speed is there and it looks like he’ll be on base enough to learn. Getting to work with Davey Lopes in spring training would be a huge plus
I’m pretty sure he’ll be who I vote for next. I like what his skills bring to the table but his swing scares me. I know they shortened it and that’s what supposedly helped him so much last year. I’m just not sure he’ll continue to hit as he moves up. I’ll continue to follow him closely until he starts to flame out.
Some people on minor league ball, I think from Bullpen Banter (not a fan of them, to be honest)
Have Silverio in their top 10 for the Dodgers, the middle of it too.
TBLA 2011 Postseason Prediction Champion
If I didn’t follow the Dodgers or their prospects, I’d assume the one guy who made the Future’s Game was our top prospect too.
it would be nice if he could take a walk once in a while
"I'm telling you, y'all created a monster."
Or
Walks less then 40
K’s less then 50
Home runs > 15
Hits > 150
Man that is a tiny ass list from 1990
Player BB H SO HR Year Age PA BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
Carlos Baerga 35 175 31 15 1995 26 600 .314 .355 .452 .807 *4/D
Jose Vidro 31 155 49 15 2001 26 531 .319 .371 .486 .856 *4/D
Placido Polanco 27 150 39 17 2004 28 555 .298 .345 .441 .786 *45
Shea Hillenbrand 24 174 49 15 2004 28 604 .310 .348 .464 .812 *35
Bengie Molina 19 155 38 16 2008 33 569 .292 .322 .445 .767 *2/D
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/30/2011.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
I went with Castle
I think he’s closer to the bigs.
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Nov 30, 2011 8:33 AM PST via iPhone app reply actions
Unless you pick Santana or Garcia, it’s going to be an older prospect. And I’d love for Garcia to pan out, but he’s just a prayer in a bucket at this point.
Jonathan Garcia: cause you gotta have faith.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 30, 2011 8:40 AM PST up reply actions
Castellanos is like the other guy from Wham!: irrelevant :)
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 30, 2011 8:43 AM PST up reply actions
I am proud of myself for going the cleanest route possible here.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 30, 2011 8:47 AM PST up reply actions
Huh?
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Nov 30, 2011 8:57 AM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
I thought you were stretching for a Jerry Sandusky joke.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 30, 2011 9:03 AM PST up reply actions
once upon a time
That’s a Juan Pierre joke instead.
Follow @DavidYoungTBLA
- The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Nov 30, 2011 9:02 AM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
Aha I know of a good trade!
Rivera for Pierre.
by DodgerofTrolleys on Nov 30, 2011 9:03 AM PST up reply actions
Right.
Then trade Rivera for $$ to Yankees, sign Pierre. Either way.
by DodgerofTrolleys on Nov 30, 2011 9:04 AM PST up reply actions
Come on...
That is sad. Well then, we should just start an official countdown until June 15th.
by DodgerofTrolleys on Nov 30, 2011 9:06 AM PST up reply actions
Definitely.
I agree. Just when we get a crack at getting something better from him, let’s go for it. However, he’s probably going to turn into another Jose Bautista.
by DodgerofTrolleys on Nov 30, 2011 9:10 AM PST up reply actions
One is a 34 year old defensive liability who in 8 years has proven he can’t hit righties well.
The other is a guy scouts have raved about since he was in high school, whose swing looks like it’s ready to destroy every ball what dares to enter its reach, and who put up one of the greatest two month stretch we’ve ever seen end last season.
You could say the same....
About Russ Martin. And after all, if 1b isn’t the place for Loney we can move him to Pitching!
by DodgerofTrolleys on Nov 30, 2011 9:16 AM PST up reply actions
Whaaaa
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 30, 2011 9:17 AM PST up reply actions
I don’t remember ever hearing that about Russell Martin.
Follow @DavidYoungTBLA
- The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
I think you took his question a little too seriously :P
Loney has such a sweet line drive swing though…
TBLA 2011 Postseason Prediction Champion
Cool article on fangraphs about Kenley
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/kenley-jansens-dominant-fastball/
TBLA 2011 Postseason Prediction Champion
I look at this list of 13, knowing there are 10 spots left, and have to assume Aaron Miller, Ethan Martin and Kyle Russell don’t make the cut, and that’s if no one else is added to the choices. I think even though he’s a catcher, Griff is the 20th best prospect from the available choices. If O’Koyea Dickson, Josh(?) Wall, Cole St. Clair gets added a little later on, I could see Griff falling off the table completely.
Austin Gallagher had a way better season than I thought he did and had some hype at one point. Is he gonna get added soon?
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
Can you elaborate on why you think he had a better season then we thought? I am being serious.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Better season than I thought. I figured he just kinda dropped off the map but he out hit Lemmermann with a 70/62 K/BB.
He’d be a back end top 20 guy at best, but I like that performance more than a lot of the guys are listed.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 30, 2011 9:02 AM PST up reply actions
Yea but Gallagher can’t play middle infield, or any position other than 1B. He is screwed unless he gets way way better at Defense and they put him back at 3B.
Dude sure can smash watermelons though.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
I’m not saying he’s a good prospect by any means, just that if we think of Lemmermann as a prospect when his bat probably won’t play at all (a .128 ISO is actually really bad in the Cal League), Gallagher should be up there.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 30, 2011 9:32 AM PST up reply actions
When one will be a SS, 3B, or 2B
and the other will be a 1B, im not sure that argument holds.
TBLA 2011 Postseason Prediction Champion
Really neither of them are prospects in my mind. Lemmerman’s bat probably won’t play at higher levels unless he makes some big adjustments and while Gallagher’s contract and discipline are much better, he probably won’t hit well enough for a first baseman.
It’s really only a discussion because a 25 year old is gonna end up at number 11.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 30, 2011 9:44 AM PST up reply actions
2nd base suck now, and 3rd base is headed that way. So maybe we have to adjust how thinking as how much a bat will play. After all we are paying Ellis / Kennedy about 4-5 Million to put up a .250/.320/.350 line at best.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
And I think you’re overvaluing how much a 22 year old who was a little better than league average in High A can hit.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 30, 2011 9:57 AM PST up reply actions
His slugging was .010 points below average
and OBP was .030 points above average. I feel like that makes for a good hitter for the league.
TBLA 2011 Postseason Prediction Champion
Look, I am not voting for Lemmerman here, but I don’t think its difficult to imagine the guy making it to a MLB bench.
Hell, Jamey Carroll didn’t make the big leagues until age 28 and never OPS’d close to .800 in the minors.
If that’s the bar, sure, but if we’re gonna wait that long Lemmerman won’t be on the team any more.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 30, 2011 10:03 AM PST up reply actions
Sure but how many better looking bats have we had come up through the system that couldn’t even accomplish that?
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 30, 2011 9:55 AM PST up reply actions
I don’t know. Sellers in small sample size did not. Gordon did. Dejesus was not given a chance. How many middle infielders from our system have we given sustained at bats to over the last five years that we expected to hit?
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Not just middle infielders, anyone. Xavier Paul and Delwyn Young were much better looking offensively and they couldn’t accomplish that.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 30, 2011 10:00 AM PST up reply actions
You seem to be only looking at the failures. What about:
Ross
Ellis
Willy Aybar
Blake DeWitt
None of them were great, but they did better then that line while making nothing.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Nov 30, 2011 10:06 AM PST up reply actions
I haven't checked Gallaghers numbers admittedly
But Lemmerman has good walk rates, 10.2, 10, and 8.6 each level so far. I’d be willing to bet he can get closer to 10 again this year in AA.
TBLA 2011 Postseason Prediction Champion
Harsh – you have to look at how the Dodgers handle them to see how they feel about them. Lemmerman was allowed to skip a league and then was promoted. So while the numbers in 2011 were disappointing, the Dodgers were still aggressive with him. He sucked in the AFL. Badly. One could ask why is Lemmerman a prospect and Pedroza is not? My only answer would be because the Dodgers appear to believe in Lemmerman while Pedroza is done as far as the Dodgers plans go.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Nov 30, 2011 10:02 AM PST up reply actions
i wasn't planning it because i didn't think he had a chance at the top 20
but if you get some support then sure i’ll add him
by Brandon Lennox on Nov 30, 2011 9:01 AM PST up reply actions
Though I’m a fan of both, Scott Van Slyke is really better than Castle. However, he’s my next vote.
by DodgerofTrolleys on Nov 30, 2011 9:02 AM PST reply actions
I personally believe that
we should have gotten Aaron Miles back for that express purpose.
by DodgerofTrolleys on Nov 30, 2011 9:32 AM PST up reply actions
Adam Kennedy will be better than Aaron Miles this year. Please note, I am not saying he will be good, or better than Aaron Miles was last year.
"It's supposed to be hard. If it wasn't hard, everyone would do it. The hard... is what makes it great."
Mike - from LB state message board
We lost to THREE quality opponents. SDSU, Montana, Louisville. I agree that we should have won the two close ones, but at least we didn’t get knocked off by CSbakersfield or we’re not playing the likes of Portland.
I guess that’s a comparison to UCSB who Portland played but I fail to see how Montana is a better program than Portland but I’m biased. It’s a silly statement since from a scheduling perspective there’s no way you say “we’re not scheduling the likes of Portland, we’re scheduling the likes of Montana” as though there’s a difference.
by Michael White on Nov 30, 2011 9:26 AM PST up reply actions
Yeah those two teams are fairly similar
I’m sure that was meant as a knock on SB but SB played SDSU (and lost in OT by a bucket) and play UNLV tonight. LBSU’s sched is definitely tougher (Pitt and Louisville) but it’s not that much … anyway, win or loss the tough sched will help them with either seeding or if per chance they are trying for an at large.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
yeah it's bizarre, not sure i understand it
they have bunch of road games coming up, including at Cal.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
they didnt really "schedule" Montana
it was a return game from the bracketbuster. but yeah, i agree with you.
Garcia
Guessing that Dodgers let him struggle in A ball at 19 because they thought he could handle it, would learn something, and the Pioneer League wouldn’t challenge him. He’s still my vote.
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by David Young on Nov 30, 2011 9:06 AM PST via iPhone app reply actions
Think we see Pederson and Garcia playing together next year at Great Lakes to see who is the better prospect after all.
I doubt it, I expect Garcia to get promoted. They have a history of promoting Loons who struggled. Santana, Van Slyke, Gallagher, Erickson. They were all older so I might be off, but I bet they want him to enjoy success in the Cal League.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
I agree. There are so many outfielders down there with Pederson, Baldwin, Schebler, Garcia, Cuevas, Landry, Blake Smith
I think they will want to find a lot of playing time for all of them.
Outfields:
AAA
Castellanos
Silverio
Russell
AA
Blake Smith
Landry/Akins
Buss
A+
Garcia
Akins/Landry
Cuevas
A
Pederson
Baldwin
Schebler
Something along those lines…
I doubt if Akins is even in the Dodger organization by this spring.
You are missing the Chatwsorth High School kid.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Right, He’ll be a Loon
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Nov 30, 2011 10:06 AM PST up reply actions
Who were the other two from Chatsworth
I remember Dominguez with the Marlins, who is the other first rounder from that team? I’m trying to remember if he’s panned out or not.
TBLA 2011 Postseason Prediction Champion
Just my two cents on the academia discussion from the last post...
If you or your child are thinking of going to grad school (in the humanities), read this and think twice.
http://chronicle.com/article/Graduate-School-in-the/44846/
I can only really speak with any authority about my own field, but in my discipline it is very difficult to get a tenure track job (anywhere) unless you’re a top student from a top ten school and you’ve worked with a renowned professor that’s pretty close to your specialty. I think Maddz had the right perspective (and I have the same one): A tenure track position is ideal, but I won’t be heart broken if I wind up teaching high school.
I’m assuming those of you in this field are in because you love the academic part of it and not because you think it is a great career choice. At what point does one stop pursuing that goal because the ability to make a living is limited?
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
The author responded to that exact line of questioning in his follow up:
“The Big Lie About the Life of the Mind”
http://chronicle.com/article/The-Big-Lie-About-the-Life-of/63937/
I went to a nice high school in a very affluent area, and I don’t think more than one or two teachers had their PhD.
Seems like a lot of schooling to end up teaching in a high school?
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Exactly.
That’s why people should think twice about graduate school.
In many states it is now a requirement to get a master’s degree (within a certain amount of time) to teach at any level. I guess I should have been specific because I meant PhD.
FWIW I think all our humanities buffs on this blog are 100% capable of getting into the top 10 schools and getting the tenure track of their choce. Really brilliant and dedicated people you are.
I don’t really know about that. There’s thousands of brilliant/dedicated people out there with PhDs in hand that can’t get legitimate job. Job placement is well below 50% across the humanities and dropping fast. The more this number drops (and the more people decide to go to grad school) the more the prospective job market snowballs (despite the fact that positions-to-be-filled are on the decline).
Are you referring to the "waves of retirement" that are constantly being promised?
That’s also addressed in the article above. It’s a big lie. Like I said, there are many more people going to graduate school than their used to be.
not a chance I’d retire if I had a tenured job making bunches of money and the economy was in the tank
Bummer, my niece is in graduate school for Psych Counseling and the studies she had read, is that they expect the “graying” to help in the job market as the boomers continue to hit retirement age at unprecedented levels.
Those people have been working for 40 years, and should have no problem retiring.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Maybe that’s true in her field, but people constantly say that in mine and I know they’re being “optimistic” and that there’s no real evidence to back up what they’re saying
it really depends.
the trend now is towards interdisciplinary work. I am not going to be a NT scholar for a reason.
I pitched to Matt Kemp, and all I got was this stupid earned run.
@maddzgoesrawr @arenafitness
So hen your only real option is to get published and then try to get one of those jobs based on your reputation as a scholar instead of your reputation as a student? I’m asking.
Basically.
Some smaller schools look more at teaching credentials, but for the most part your dissertation and publications are the strongest aspects of your job application.
hahah
the guy who tutors/runs our after school program is a PHD. he’s getting paid like $12/hr for 8 hours a week.
he’s amazing and basically just killing time at home while he applies for real jobs. just funny that the most qualified dude at the school i teach at (on paper, anyways), is barely working haha
I had 5 or 6 teachers with PhDs
I also went to smart school
I pitched to Matt Kemp, and all I got was this stupid earned run.
@maddzgoesrawr @arenafitness
Right
And since most public schools use a step-and-ladder pay scale, you’d be making a whole lot of money for a public school to want to choose you instead of the new grad who can tell the same students to go read the Crucible and call in the morning.
HS teachers with PhDs are no more likely to be effective teachers than their counterparts who do not have PhDs.
"It's supposed to be hard. If it wasn't hard, everyone would do it. The hard... is what makes it great."
That comment reminded me of sausage.
by DodgerofTrolleys on Nov 30, 2011 9:23 AM PST up reply actions
Legally speaking, cost isn’t allowed to be a factor in hiring. That doesn’t mean it isn’t a factor, it’s just not allowed to be one.
"It's supposed to be hard. If it wasn't hard, everyone would do it. The hard... is what makes it great."
At schools in districts like LAUSD, teacher salaries are budgeted at average salary, and the district pays the specific salaries. Principals who ultimately do the hiring may be pressured not to take experienced teachers, but hiring is done by the big district and placement is done by the school site.
"It's supposed to be hard. If it wasn't hard, everyone would do it. The hard... is what makes it great."
I understand this and I recognize it as a problem, but there will ALWAYS be districts out there that are desperate for teachers and I’m sure that if I can’t get a job in academia that I would have a much easier time in the public school system.
Don’t know about prep schools, but the guy I knew who taught Math at a catholic school was making diddly compared to LAUSD teachers.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Yeah, the LAUSD is in shambles but one thing that it’s not is underfunded (and if you look at some of the newer schools they’re palaces). A lot of shit districts just throw money at teachers to draw them in.
You just made me hurt.
"It's supposed to be hard. If it wasn't hard, everyone would do it. The hard... is what makes it great."
Aye.
"It's supposed to be hard. If it wasn't hard, everyone would do it. The hard... is what makes it great."
and this isn't really any of my business...
but are you well paid? i really don’t know very much about LAUSD, i’m just curiious.
Pay is not the only thing. The health benefits have dropped every year so now they are no better then anyone else’s but when she started 17 years ago they were the tits.
As long the retirement stays funded that is a huge plus.
Plus teachers also get to use other means for retirement while not paying a penny into Social Security. Haven’t quite done an analysis on which is better, not paying SS and paying into the State Pension.
You won’t get rich being a teacher but you will make enough money to have a decent living and if the state does not go bankrupt you should have a solid retirement plan.
The work is hard, the parents can be a joy or a drain, as are the students. It is a shame so few men become elementary school teachers because they really need them.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Our pay is one of the lowest in the county. IIRC, something like 29th out of 33 LAC districts, but our health benefits (including for life after a certain amount of service to the district) are pretty good. The schools are woefully underfunded. The new schools look nice (sort of) and all, but after the big setup cost, they have no budgets to maintain the programs. Ancillary support is minimal, class sizes are way too big and massive layoffs have occurred three years in a row, as well as teacher/staff furloughs. We are not sufficiently funded by a long shot.
"It's supposed to be hard. If it wasn't hard, everyone would do it. The hard... is what makes it great."
My wife has had five principles over the last 15 years , with varying degree’s of weakness. If you put all of their strong suits together you might have one good principle.
Her very very first principle when she should not have been allowed to teach was the best she ever had and so she knows what a good principle is supposed to do.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Its amazing how many shitty principles there are
and what it takes for them to get fired, and how easy it is for them to get another job elswhere
Watch me all in flames, on a butterfly I ride
My wife's current principal
has been accused of and caught stealing and lying and still has her job. She is somehow untouchable. She pops pills in her office (in front of staff) and is an all-in-all bad person. Fortunately she likes my wife, so she has that going for her. Which is nice.
They call me the thread killer
by Greg Stephen on Nov 30, 2011 10:16 AM PST up reply actions
My poor mother somehow drew the ire of her principle
who had already been fired from 2 previous jobs, and he would just yell at her any chance he got, even out in the parking lot. She did eventually get a bunch of paid vacation out of it though!
Watch me all in flames, on a butterfly I ride
Good that she got the paid vacation
but the rest of that sucks.
They call me the thread killer
by Greg Stephen on Nov 30, 2011 10:23 AM PST up reply actions
I agree.
And I might even argue that they’re likely to be worse educators. Many graduate schools don’t give a shit about pedagogy and only really train for researche.
trust me, i'm well aware of the perils of this study
but i’m also at the top end of people who this sort of thing. while i’m probably not brilliant enough to be like the next Peter Brown, I have no doubts about my ability to hold my own.
I pitched to Matt Kemp, and all I got was this stupid earned run.
@maddzgoesrawr @arenafitness
At this point I think Sanchez and Garcia are the players.
Garcia at a legitimate 19 years old hit more home runs then any Loon has ever below the age of 22. I understand the appreciation of what Van Slyke, Songoc, and Castle have done, but take into consideration what Garcia will probably be doing in those leagues if three years from now when he would still be younger then all of them right now. Garcia just turned 20, 19 days ago and has already put in three successful professional seasons.
Sanchez on the other hand might just develop into a better pitcher then anyone already on this list.
JMO
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
I am having some cognitive disonance about voting for Castle. I was about to go with Sanchez, but couldn’t pull the trigger for some reason. I was also considering Van Slyke because I think he will at least contribute to the big club sometime soon. Garcia is still too far away for me to get overly excited about.
I voted for Garcia
Sanchez will be next. I can’t get behind voting a 25 year old this high who mashed in AA that we hope can play second base but hasn’t in three years.
by eitherethier on Nov 30, 2011 9:40 AM PST up reply actions
Garcia and Sanchez definitely should be the next two and likely would be in my top 10 over Tolleson and Fedex
I have them 8 and 10, respectively, on my list.
Follow @DavidYoungTBLA
- The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Delwyn Young
was always a prospect in the radar, he couldn’t crash the top ten when he was playing the lower divisions because he wasn’t a high ceiling player during the 2004-2006 period. He did finally make the Dodgers Top Ten (BA version) in 2008 as a super sub.
No one believed he could stick at 2nd base where the bat would have played and the Dodgers took forever to move him to the outfield. I was bummed he never amounted to more then a 25th player. I thought his bat would play better then that.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Yeah
His inability to be an average defensive player didn’t allow him the opportunity to let his bat play out.
K rates always made me wary of him, though clearly I was pulling for a guy who appeared in box scores as “DYoung”.
Follow @DavidYoungTBLA
- The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
this poll kinda surprised me
@ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
Arizona’s favorite MLB team: D-Backs 65, Cubs 6, Rockies 5, Yankees 4, Angels/Giants 2: tinyurl.com/6tlsca6
Figured Dodgers would get at least a little bit of fandom in AZ, always thought they had a bit of fan support there from before the DBacks came, from transplants, etc.
In their poll of NFL team support, after the Cardinals, the Packers were # 2. Bandwagoners.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
I am surprised the Cubs and Giants are not higher
since they have had spring training there for decades.
Lots and lot and lots of snowbirds in Arizona. I have some family from Wisconsin there. Those Green Bay fans are life long fans not bandwagoneers.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Hm, interesting, hadn't figured a Wisc to AZ connection
Yeah true about the Cubs and Giants that part is obviously not surprising. Maybe Dodgers got 1% or something. Anyway, not that important, was just curious.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
“I’m sick of the cold, let’s move to Florida”
“Yeah, because hurricanes are way more exciting than blizzards”
“Okay fine, how about Arizona”
“Fine”
Dry heat compared to wet heat. From what I gather the MidWest tends to like the dry heat while the Eastern folks head to Florida.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
And you can bring your guns into bars!
by Tim Crews' Dastardly Mustache on Nov 30, 2011 9:40 AM PST up reply actions
Not sure what the polling population is, but the stands at Chase are always full of Dodger fans when they’re in town.
by Tim Crews' Dastardly Mustache on Nov 30, 2011 9:39 AM PST up reply actions
yah, that's partially what i was basing my inexact analysis on...
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
I don't buy it
I’ve been at Chase Field where there there were as many Dodger fans as Snake fans. Tucson is full of Dodger fans (Laker fans too)
by preacher roe on Nov 30, 2011 1:51 PM PST up reply actions
Has Martin fallen off the face of prospectdom
since he is now projected as a reliever. I ask that because he does still have time and stuff on his side.
He’d might sneak in somewhere 15-20 for me, but the only guys left I’m happy about voting for are Garcia and Sanchez.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 30, 2011 9:33 AM PST up reply actions
I love
Hoe we’re discussing football on the prospect discussion page.
by DodgerofTrolleys on Nov 30, 2011 9:36 AM PST reply actions
Where do you see a football discussion?
"It's supposed to be hard. If it wasn't hard, everyone would do it. The hard... is what makes it great."
And porkography
which is now officialy a word for thing pertaining to sausage.
by DodgerofTrolleys on Nov 30, 2011 9:39 AM PST up reply actions
give it 15 minutes
We’ll be discussing snuggies
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Nov 30, 2011 9:39 AM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
We tend to float off-topic
If it’s off-topic but still about sports, be happy.
by Michael White on Nov 30, 2011 9:39 AM PST up reply actions
Frank McCourt should get this quote framed
BillShaikin Bill Shaikin
Judge Gross: “I have never had any evidence before me to make any finding of impropriety by Mr. McCourt.”
I like it. Now that he’s away from whatever causes A’s batters to go to complete crap he should be solid. If he’s not, he’ll still be better than Mark Ellis.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 30, 2011 9:45 AM PST up reply actions
Why wouldn't we give that to him
instead of what we gave to rivera. sigh
Watch me all in flames, on a butterfly I ride
its about 1 million more per year
and dejesus is clearly the better player and actually worth giving a 2 year deal to.
Watch me all in flames, on a butterfly I ride
Even without park adjustments they hit the same last year and DeJesus can actually play defense.
Ned being Ned.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 30, 2011 9:48 AM PST up reply actions
People get hurt.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 30, 2011 9:49 AM PST up reply actions
then why pay rivera so much
rivera is a clear overpay if he is a bench guy when you could have gotten a starter for 1 mil more per year.
Watch me all in flames, on a butterfly I ride
10 million TOTAL
rivera will be paied 4.5 million this year, and AT LEAST 5 million with the buyout. If we pick up the option he gets paid 9 million total over 2 years. Thats literally a 1 million dollar difference.
Watch me all in flames, on a butterfly I ride
Given he will be released in Aug I don’t think we will be using the option
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
and we will still have paid him 5 million for this year
while the cubs are paying the same for dejesus. usually I don’t harp on Ned too much, but his Rivera deal was just plain bad.
Watch me all in flames, on a butterfly I ride
by nolander on Nov 30, 2011 10:05 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Just to clarify
Rivera is guaranteed $4.5 million.
He gets $4 million in salary this year, plus either a $500,000 buyout or another $4 million for 2013.
by Eric Stephen on Nov 30, 2011 4:59 PM PST up reply actions
To time 2014 as the Season of the Dodgers.
Does everyone realize how much shitty money is coming off the books after the 2013 season (just as some of the younger guys should start to hit their strides)?
I’ve wanted to say that for year, but Ned keeps signing mediocre players that weigh us down.
by BFDC on Nov 30, 2011 10:05 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I don't own one
So I cannot say
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Nov 30, 2011 9:46 AM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
Totes
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Nov 30, 2011 9:51 AM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
Anyway
I have to go. Hope Van Slyke wins! Bye.
by DodgerofTrolleys on Nov 30, 2011 9:50 AM PST reply actions
Is that Scott’s hot sister?
Follow @DavidYoungTBLA
- The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Nov 30, 2011 2:28 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Tim Brown saying that Kennedy’s contract will be signed for 800K.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
which is now just
300K more than the minimum salary.
by bhsportsguy on Nov 30, 2011 10:06 AM PST up reply actions
Wow, this is the first free agent contract in years that I feel like Ned is paying close to a player’s actual value.
by court168627 on Nov 30, 2011 10:07 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
the actual value is what the market will bear
and based on what other middle infielders who suck are going for I don’t think Ellis was that much of an overpay. I wish ned would be smart enough to just sit out the market and realize just because teams x,y,z are giving out shitty contracts it doesn’t mean he should too.
Watch me all in flames, on a butterfly I ride
by nolander on Nov 30, 2011 10:15 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Miles prolly wanted 2 mils or something.
by silverwidow on Nov 30, 2011 10:06 AM PST up reply actions

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