The $120 Million Roster
by G.Scott on Nov 8, 2011 10:38 AM PST
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PrintWell, The $97,737,568 Roster, after the $22,262,432 in deferred payments this year. Using Eric's payroll sheet here as my primary source for 2012 figures on current Dodgers, here goes. Would you be happy rooting for this team? What do you think of my Loney, Kemp and Kershaw extensions? Friendly faces return to 3B, no rookies in this rotation, and no trades involved because I couldn't quantify the Nedness.
Starting Lineup vs. Mat Latos in SD on April 5, 2012:
C: Ryan Doumit ($8mil/2, paid as 3, 5 with performance escalators to 6/8)
1B: James Loney ($18mil/3, paid as 4, 6, 8) / Juan Rivera ($4mil in 2012)
2B: Juan Uribe ($8mil in 2012)
SS: Dee Gordon ($420k in 2012)
3B: Wilson Betemit ($8mil/2 with 2014 team option for $7mil, paid as 3, 5)/ Casey Blake ($2mil/1, escalators to 6, 2013 team option for $6mil)
LF: Jerry Sands ($420k in 2012)
CF: Matt Kemp ($200/10, paid as 12,18, 20, 22, 22, 22, 22, 20, 20, 20, team option for 2022-2024 for $48mil)
RF: Andre Ethier ($12mil estimate in 2012)
Bench:
Backup Catcher: AJ Ellis ($435k in 2012)
1B vs LHP, bench bat: Juan Rivera (included above)
3B vs LHP, bench bat: Casey Blake (included above)
2B/SS/3B: Justin Sellers ($420k in 2012)
OF/PR: Tony Gwynn Jr: ($1mil estimate in 2012)
Rotation:
SP: Clayton Kershaw ($65/5, paid as 6, 9, 12, 18, 20, team option for 2017-2021 at $100mil)
SP: Hiroki Kuroda (2011 Special, $12/1 paid as 10, 2 deferred)
SP: Ted Lilly ($12mil in 2012)
SP: Chad Billingsley ($9mil in 2012)
SP: Paul Maholm ($12mil/2, paid as 4, 8 with 2014 mutual $8mil option)
Bullpen:
CP: Kenley Jansen ($435k estimate in 2012)
RP: Javy Guerra ($420k estimate in 2012)
RP: Matt Guerrier ($4,750,000 in 2012)
RP: Scott Elbert ($420k estimate in 2012)
RP: Blake Hawksworth ($435k estimate in 2012)
RP: Trever Miller: ($500k NRI)
Total Lineup: $42,840,000 (Counted Blake and Rivera as bench guys)
Total Bench: $6,855,000
Total Rotation: $41,000,000
Total Bullpen: $6,960,000
Total Active Roster: $98,655,000
Total Deferred Payments: $22,262,432
Total Payroll Expenses: $119,917,432
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That’s not a terrible team.
Re: the rotation. Can Kershaw be CY-quality again? If Kuroda doesn’t sign, what are the chances of getting a different pitcher of his quality for that price, and if he does sign, will this be the year that age catches up to him? What kind of pitchers will Lilly, Billingsley, and Maholm be? All five guys have questions, except maybe Kershaw, and I even managed to ask a question about him, even if it’s a nice question to ask.
Re: the lineup. No idea what to make of it. Kemp will almost certainly back a bit off of his MVP year, and much improvement has to come from anywhere else for the team to succeed. Ethier has to have a big year, and so does Loney, and so does Uribe, and Sands/Gordon have to stick, and…. oh, screw it. The offense might have some bright days when it all comes together, but I gotta think it’s highly mediocre.
I dislike the bench. Rivera could fall off the map, Blake could be injured the whole year again, Sellers could have zero bat. I guess Ellis and Gwynn are fine in those roles.
The pen is fine. It might not be good, because relievers are sometimes good and sometimes bad, but what can you do — I’d sign up for that.
In short, to me, this looks like somewhere around 81 wins again.
magnae clunes mihi placent, nec possum de hac re mentiri.
quis enim, consortes mei, non fateatur
Locking up Loney for three years to get him to play for cheap this one is a move I like.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
Agreed
That is only a 24-man roster. I would expect a 7-man bullpen normally, and I imagine an low-priced NRI or a near-minimum guy like Lindblom there.
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- The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
The players union
will want Kershaw and Kemp to get more than that in the first year of their deal when they are coming off Cy Young and MVP award years, respectively.
In all seriousness, Kershaw and Kemp’s first year numbers do seem low.
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- The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
The backup plans
for Betemit/Blake and Uribe are going to suck a lot.
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- The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
I like the idea of the extensions except for Loney.
However, I think this team would be about the same as last year’s and then the following year we would be stuck with more mediocre talent we are overpaying for.
Pumped that Paul Maholm made this team!
The only nitpick I’d make is that I don’t think you need to spend money on a catcher, I’d be fine going with Ellis and Fed or bringing Barajas back for $1MM or so (and if he wants more, he can go elsewhere.) Use that money on…well, I’m not sure exactly.
That was mostly where I ended up at. Blake could be hurt all year, but it’s $1mil sun cost for a guy I want to have 200 ABs and felt Betemit/Blake was more production and less cost than all but the Wright/Ramirez scenarios.
I had to backload the Kemp an Kershaw deals to fit them in the budget.
Mostly, I like the idea of major league hitters being put in a position to succeed, and that’s what platoons take advantage of at (generally) lower cost. Loney/River would be (theoretically) a .800 OPS from the 1B spot for $8mil next year rather than $25mil for .900 OPS.
Of course you like the one that says “get Wilson Betemit :)”
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
Reg vs G.Scott
I ran both Reg’s $120M team and G.Scott’s $120M team through my simulator. Ten games simulated 100K times, using the following schedule
REG SP#1 vs G.Scott SP#1
G.Scott SP#1 vs REG SP#1
REG SP#2 vs G.Scott SP#2
G.Scott SP#2 vs REG SP#2
REG SP#3 vs G.Scott SP#3
G.Scott SP#3 vs REG SP#3
REG SP#4 vs G.Scott SP#4
G.Scott SP#4 vs REG SP#4
REG SP#5 vs G.Scott SP#5
G.Scott SP#5 vs REG SP#5
I used the platoon partners spelled out in each person’s Fanpost. This is not a perfect method for determining which team is better, but probably as good as any other anybody else can come up with. For example it does not take into account how teams are setup for the 2013 and beyond.
Here are the results…
REG vs G.Scott(Kershaw), G.Scott 54.783%
G.Scott(Kershaw) vs G.Scott(Kershaw), REG 57.647%
REG vs G.Scott(Billingsley), G.Scott 53.589%
G.Scott(Billingsley) vs REG, REG 58.163%
REG vs G.Scott (Kuroda), G.Scott 54.164%
G.Scott(Kuroda) vs G.Scott(Kuroda), REG 57.63%
REG vs G.Scott(Lilly), G.Scott 56.447%
G.Scott(Lilly) vs REG, REG 55.033%
REG vs G.Scott(Maholm), G.Scott 55.772%
G.Scott(Maholm) vs REG, REG 56.128%
Pretty even but Reg’s team would have an average win percentage of 0.511863 and over a 162 game season using these exact matchups would on average win 82.92 games and G.Scott’s team would win 79.08 games.
Awesoke
What do you think is the margin of error on that win percentage, at least .0238 ?
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- The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
hard to say
if the inputs in to the simulator are accurate then there is very little margin of error (0.005?), but the inputs of course are not perfect so in effect I have no way of really knowing what the true margin of error is. :)
Whoooooo suck it!
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 8, 2011 11:19 PM PST up reply actions
Actually feel like Gordon and Withrow in exchange for four wins is worth it.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 8, 2011 11:22 PM PST up reply actions
If you don’t mind, how many wins do I get if you substitute Cooper with Loney.
Minor League Central @mlcentral @andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Nov 8, 2011 11:31 PM PST up reply actions
Rosterbation
Rosterbation
Can be fun
Join the holy orgy
H. Kuroda
Everyone!
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- The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
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