FanPost

A Third 120 Million Lineup

 

Alright, including the $22,262,432 in deferred payments this year, that leaves 97,737568 million left for the payroll in 2012. Like prior posts by others I will be using Eric's payroll sheet here as my primary source for 2012 figures on current Dodgers:

Starting Lineup:

C: AJ Ellis /Rod Barajas (Sharing time Ellis is $435K in 2012, Barajas should be brought back for $1.5mil/1. Just being realistic that after a 3+ mil contract he won't drop down to 1 mil)

1B: Prince Fielder ($140mil/7 paid 16, 18, 20, 21, 21, 22, 22) 

2B: Kelly Johnson ($8mil/2 with 2014 team option for $7mil, paid as 3, 5)

SS: Dee Gordon ($420k in 2012)

3B: Juan Uribe ($8mil in 2012)

RF: Jerry Sands ($420k in 2012)

CF: Matt Kemp ($200/10, paid as 12,18, 20, 22, 22, 22, 22, 20, 20, 20, team option for 2022-2024 for $48mil)

LF: James Loney ($18mil/3, paid as 4, 6, 8) / Juan Rivera ($4mil in 2012)

Bench:

Backup Catcher:Rod Barajas/AJ Ellis (splitting time as stated above)

1B/LF: Juan Rivera (included above)

2B/3B: Aaron Miles ($2mil/2 paid as 1, and 1)

2B/SS/3B: Justin Sellers ($420k in 2012)

OF/PR: Tony Gwynn Jr: ($1mil estimate in 2012)

Rotation:

SP: Clayton Kershaw ($65/5, paid as 6, 9, 12, 18, 20, team option for 2017-2021 at $100mil)

SP: Hiroki Kuroda (2011 Special, $12/1 paid as 10, 2 deferred)

SP: Ted Lilly ($12mil in 2012)

SP: Chad Billingsley ($9mil in 2012)

SP: Nathan Eovaldi/ Rubby De La Rosa ($420k in 2012,$420k in 2012)

Bullpen:

CP: Kenley Jansen ($435k estimate in 2012)

RP: Javy Guerra ($420k estimate in 2012)

RP: Matt Guerrier ($4,750,000 in 2012)

RP:Scott Elbert ($420k estimate in 2012)

RP: Blake Hawksworth ($435k estimate in 2012)

RP: Josh Lindblom ($420k in 2012)

RP: Trever Miller: ($500k NRI)

 

Total Lineup: $44,775,000 (Counted Barajas and Rivera as bench guys)

Total Bench: $7,920,000

Total Rotation: $37,840,000

Total Bullpen: $7,380,000

Total Active Roster: $97,415,000

Total Deferred Payments: $22,262,432

Total Payroll Expenses: $119,677,432

Batting Lineup:

1. Dee Gordon 2. James Loney 3. Matt Kemp 4. Prince Fielder 5. Jerry Sands 6. Kelly Johnson 7. Juan Uribe 8. AJ Ellis

 

Explanations:

Alright well first off most of you will prob be asking where is Andre Either, and unfortunately with his attitude and decline of play in the last two years he has become a cancer in the clubhouse and is not worth keeping. Instead I say we offer him arb, and trade him to get some minor league (hopefully nearly major ready) prospects to add depth at 3B, 2B, and C. A team like the Marlins, desperate to make a splash in their new stadium will most likely overpay perhaps even giving up someone like Matt Dominguez assuming they block him at third with either a new 3B (A Ram) or move Hanley over, plus it will give them a reason to dump LoMo.

Secondly, you may be wondering about keeping James Loney, and trading Either. Well looking at the past year Either put up a 292/368/421 slash line. Loney put up a 288/339/416, not bad considering the start he had. So answer me this, is it worth paying Either twice as much as Loney (who is 2 year younger) for 4 points of BA, 19 points of OB and only 5 points of slugging... Part of the reason for Loney's resurgence as a hitter are due to the change in his approach to the plate. Ever since coming to the majors Loney has tried to be a guy who could hit with power to all fields. Even to the point where a number of his home runs away from Dodger Stadium were chip shots pushed to the left field corner. Halfway through this year someone got it through his skull that he cannot hit with Kemp's power and his lazy fly balls to left were not effective. He then effectively made a switch to pulling the ball more often and with more authority. Chad Moriyama has a great analysis of the change to his swing here. Plus when comparing the intangibles of their team chemistry and clubhouse etiquette its no question in my mind that the younger, less mental, (and possibly improved) James Loney is worth more than the twice as expensive Either. Furthermore, considering positions, assuming Loney can learn to field balls in the outfield, he should be set as an outfielder, because he has a cannon of an arm that was being wasted at 1st base (remember when drafted he was a pitcher with a 92mph fastball).

Third order of business, is the catcher. Despite the gross overpayment of "Hot Rod" he really didn't do all that badly behind the dish, plus his pop, and odd but good inability to hit into a double play make him a valuable commodity. As someone who is either very hot or not, my suggestion would be for him and Ellis to trade off most days, with Rod taking more AB's while hot, and AJ taking the lion's share of work when Rod is not hot. As for AJ despite his lack of power his plate discipline is off the charts. In the minors for the last 4 years he has struck out less times than he has walked and has posted over a .400 OBP. In his short time in the majors he has kept about a 1:1 kk/bb ratio and has had a .360 or better OBP the last two years. Even if he is not hitting homeruns (Which he now has this past year) the guy get on base, something a lot of catchers in the majors are having problems with right now. And guess what, you can't score runs without people getting on base.

On to the topic of 2B and Kelly Johnson. Let's see the guy has hit 20+ HR's the last two years. Despite the bad year he had in 2011, his career OBP is .343, certainly a great deal better than the putrid .298 career OBP of one Juan Uribe. Also Juan's glove projects better at third as he cannot even if his life depended on it, turn a double play (in 2010 when he played a full season he turned 52 with most of those from him playing SS,) while Johnson turned has turned over 80 4 of the last 5 years.

Everything else that I've chosen should be fairly self explanatory. I hope you enjoyed reading this and let me know what you think.

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