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Around SBN: Full Coverage of 2012 Coke 600

Top 30 Prospects List By CanuckDodger

CanuckDodger is a respected prospect maven, longtime friend of True Blue LA and Dodger Thoughts, and his Dodger prospect review for the 2010 season was published in the Maple Street Press Dodgers Annual 2010. Each offseason he shares his current Dodgers top-30 prospects list. The rest of the words that follow are his.

***

Later than usual with my rankings this year, but here they are. Guerra and Lindblom are ranked because I follow Baseball America in ignoring MLB service time and just count MLB innings and AB’s. And I really have to note something that strikes me as significant: In all the years I have been doing these lists, there has never been a year when so many players have appeared to me so debatable in their merits to the point of their rankings resembling something close to random. Of course the rankings you see reflect my considered opinion and best judgment, but looking over the list once I was finished, I had the sense that I almost could have come up with something similar if I had just drawn the names out of a hat for each slot. Ours, right now, is not a farm system with "sex appeal," and I expect the likes of BA and BP to be very unimpressed, but I see a lot of depth, promise, and possibility if little — or maybe nothing — that will get people’s pulses racing.

(01). Nathan Eovaldi, RHP
(02). Allen Webster, RHP
(03). Zach Lee, RHP
(04). Garrett Gould, RHP
(05). Joc Pederson, OF
(06). Javy Guerra, RHP
(07). Tim Federowicz, C
(08). Josh Lindblom, RHP
(09). Angel Sanchez, RHP
(10). Scott Van Slyke, OF/1B
(11). Alfredo Silverio, OF
(12). Angelo Songco, 1B
(13). Shawn Tolleson, RHP
(14). Griff Erickson, C
(15). Chris Withrow, RHP
(16). Chris Reed, LHP
(17). Steve Ames, RHP
(18). Aaron Miller, LHP
(19). Jonathan Garcia, OF
(20). Ethan Martin, RHP
(21). James Baldwin III, OF
(22).Josh Wall, RHP
(23). Cole St. Clair, LHP
(24). Jake Lemmerman, SS
(25). Noel Cuevas, OF
(26). Alex Castellanos, OF
(27). O’Koyea Dickson, 1B
(28). Blake Smith, OF
(29). Matt Magill, RHP
(30). Ivan DeJesus, Jr., 2B

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So thoughts on why Chris Jacobs did not make this list? Plus .900 OPS in the MidWest league does not grow on tree’s. Only 22.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Nov 9, 2011 2:35 PM PST reply actions  

Chris Jacobs

Five seasons in the minor league system. FIVE. And he has yet to get more than 215 AB’s in a season or make it past low A.. I don’t know if he is a chronic injury case, but something is not right there.

by CanuckDodger on Nov 9, 2011 2:42 PM PST up reply actions  

I have a few questions/comments

1) I suppose this might be a silly question, but how far apart are Gould and Lee? Are they close to a coin-flip, or do you view it as a major gulf between 3 and 4?

2) Considering where they are ranked, I assume you view Martin, Withrow, Miller and Reed as relievers?

3) How much does Eovaldi’s MLB performance factor into the rankings? Had it been just based on AA, would he still be first, or is it the fact that Eo was called up and didn’t get killed?

4) I agree with your take that the prospects are not very sexy. The draft pick with the highest ever signing bonus didn’t exactly own.

Thanks. Good stuff.

by Michael White on Nov 9, 2011 2:37 PM PST reply actions  

And our most recent #1, taken mid-round, is sitting in 16th.


- The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Nov 9, 2011 3:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Lee/Gould

Lee supposedly throws SLIGHTLY harder than Gould, is projected to have a four-pitch arsenal while Gould will have three, and while Lee’s “mound presence” attracted praise, Gould was said to need to mature in that area. In Gould’s favour, his breaking ball (a curve) sounds better than Lee’s best breaking ball. Going with Lee over Gould wasn’t a hard decision, but I didn’t think they were too far apart, and they are still young enough that a lot can change for both as they develop. Not out of the question that in a couple of years Gould could surpass Lee. Look at the big leap forward Eovaldi took this year, while guys who were more highly esteemed than Eo fell back — a lot .

Martin is definitely a reliever. Closer ceiling, but a low enough floor than he may never be ready for the majors. Withrow could still start in the majors eventually, but 2012 really needs to be his year, or it is the bulllpen for him. Miller strikes me as a reliever going forward, but the Dodgers may not be ready to make that call yet. Reed — complete shot in the dark. A fortune teller with a crystal ball probably has a better grasp on him than I do. We haven’t seen anything from Reed worth using to draw conclusions yet, and Logan While could, in time, look like either a genius or an idiot for picking him in the middle of the first round. His #16 ranking on my list is a compromise between arguments for ranking him much higher and arguments for ranking him much lower.

I factor in MLB readiness with considerations of ceiling in doing these ranking, so Eovaldi’s looking pretty good as a starter in the majors (I am not counting his relief appearances against him, especially since the Dodgers see him as a starter) played a big role in just how high he places in my esteem, but the truth is, he did well enough in Double A, and his fastball is good enough and his slider sufficiently promising, that I probably would have ranked him #1 anyway, given his competition. It just would have been a tougher decision.

by CanuckDodger on Nov 9, 2011 3:13 PM PST up reply actions  

Are you really sold on Federowicz?

Surprising to see a guy projected be a backup by nearly everyone to be that high up your list. I know Ned is high on the guy, but this is a player who didn’t make anyone’s top 20 last year and its not like the Red Sox have a particularly strong farm system.

by BFDC on Nov 9, 2011 2:40 PM PST reply actions  

Is he really projected to be a backup by nearly everyone?

I know there are still bat concerns but have heard that he is a plus plus defender behind the dish which is sometimes as good as you can hope for from a catcher these days.

There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.

by underdog on Nov 9, 2011 2:48 PM PST up reply actions  

I think every report I’ve read on him has projected him as a backup. Even Red Sox homer blogs called him a defensive-minded backup or maybe starter on a bad team. I mean I guess he can start if we don’t mind a .650 OPS and plus defense, but if that is all we are expecting and that warrants a top 10, then that is more an indictment of our system.

by BFDC on Nov 9, 2011 2:51 PM PST up reply actions  

A .650 OPS is acceptable for a catcher

Anything above is a bonus nowadays with Fed’s caliber of defense.

But i don’t think .650 OPS is his projection, i think he’ll do less than that….

@TElciram

by Taylor Maricle on Nov 9, 2011 3:24 PM PST up reply actions  

We don’t know what his caliber of defense will be. I’m not sure why everyone has already declared him a gold glover.

by BFDC on Nov 9, 2011 3:28 PM PST up reply actions  

People shouldn't declare him a gold glover any more than they should declare him a backup

right now I’d say both are categorically premature.

There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.

by underdog on Nov 9, 2011 4:24 PM PST up reply actions  

He will be our starting catcher for the next five years.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Nov 9, 2011 2:55 PM PST up reply actions  

I didn’t see anything that impressed me much. I’d like to see him in AAA all year, or at least most of it.

"It's supposed to be hard. If it wasn't hard, everyone would do it. The hard... is what makes it great."

by Nolij on Nov 9, 2011 2:57 PM PST up reply actions  

If James Loney can be the Dodger 1B, Federowicz can be the Dodger catcher.

Let’s continue in “Completely Baseless Comparisons” for $800, Alex.

magnae clunes mihi placent, nec possum de hac re mentiri.
quis enim, consortes mei, non fateatur

by Humma Kavula on Nov 9, 2011 2:57 PM PST up reply actions  

Maybe he’ll be the next Dioner Navarro that gets Russel Martin’d by Griff

by BFDC on Nov 9, 2011 2:58 PM PST up reply actions  

Federowicz

Many fans don’t like it, but GM’s and managers pretty much agree nowadays that defense and handling pitchers are both more important for a starting catcher than his offense (which is just a bonus if it is good). That said, and with there appearing to be no debate on Fed-Ex’s defensive merits, he DID hit really well in Triple A for us, at the quite-acceptable age of 23. Sure, it was ABQ, but let’s just say he was more impressive with the bat in that environment than the strikeout-prone Trayvon Robinson (also 23), who isn’t even a catcher let alone one with good defense, and the trade of whom for Fed-Ex PLUS two other players made us all want to kill Colletti and then ourselves. Easily a Top 10 guy. The fact that he wasn’t held in that kind of esteem before is irrelevant. Prospects’ stocks can rise and fall quickly.

by CanuckDodger on Nov 9, 2011 3:38 PM PST up reply actions  

So you think his stock shot up that highly because of 100 AB’s in ABQ or because we are destined to have him on the roster because of his defense?

by BFDC on Nov 9, 2011 3:43 PM PST up reply actions  

The Offense In Triple A Helped...

…and it was a more age appropriate level than Double A (where he was before the trade), but what really has to count for a lot is just how much the Dodger talent evaluators — presumably scouts — LIKE him. They believe in him, and while they could be wrong, I am not dismissing it unless I have objective reason to conclude they are wrong. Organization opinion is not ALL-important, but I refuse to ignore it. Ivan Dejesus is only as low on this list as he is — despite being so close to the majors — because we have heard so much about the Dodgers really not liking him.

by CanuckDodger on Nov 9, 2011 3:50 PM PST up reply actions  

I agree with you overall, though not sure about a top 10 ranking for him

but I agree about the overall evaluation and where they see him right now. Next year will of course tell us a lot more clearly what his future is.

There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.

by underdog on Nov 9, 2011 4:28 PM PST up reply actions  

that's a good defense for why you put him in your top 10

but I don’t think you can call him “easily a top 10 guy”. I can tell you right now that I won’t have him in my top 10. i won’t go into all the reasons why now, but part of it is because there are more than 10 propsects in our system that are better than him

by Brandon Lennox on Nov 9, 2011 3:46 PM PST up reply actions  

there are more than 10 propsects in our system that are better than him

Basically my rationale. I believe that had Fed had been in our system for years as opposed to just recently been acquired, people wouldn’t be talking about him as much more than anything but the next Ellis.

by BFDC on Nov 9, 2011 7:15 PM PST up reply actions  

No Kyle Russell

Not that I would expect him near the top but seems questionable that he wouldn’t warrant the top 30…

by jaydub2001 on Nov 9, 2011 2:47 PM PST reply actions  

Canuck has been consistent since day one in his dislike of Kyle Russell as a prospect.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Nov 9, 2011 2:54 PM PST up reply actions  

He was the last prospect listed on his rankings last year, IIRC. Didn’t improve on the negatives last year.


- The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Nov 9, 2011 3:02 PM PST up reply actions  

Actually, that was two years ago. He moved up last year after not sinking in AA.

by Michael White on Nov 9, 2011 3:04 PM PST up reply actions  

Ah.


- The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Nov 9, 2011 3:09 PM PST up reply actions  

To 29th! Some move!


- The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Nov 9, 2011 3:23 PM PST up reply actions  

Is that a big tumble for Withrow?

I don’t remember where you had him last year.


- The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Nov 9, 2011 2:58 PM PST reply actions  

found his list from last year

01. Rubby De La Rosa, RHP
02. Jerry Sands, 1B/OF
03. Kenley Jansen, RHP
04. Zach Lee, RHP
05. Trayvon Robinson, OF
06. Allen Webster, RHP
07. Chris Withrow, RHP
08. Dee Gordon, SS
09. Ethan Martin, RHP
10. Aaron Miller, LHP
11. Garrett Gould, RHP
12. Jonathan Garcia, OF
13. Javier Solano, RHP
14. Jon Link, RHP
15. Scott Elbert, LHP
16. Ivan DeJesus, Jr., 2B
17. Nathan Eovaldi, RHP
18. Josh Lindblom, RHP
19. Geison Aguasviva, LHP
20. Ralston Cash, RHP
21. Javy Guerra, RHP
22. Jake Lemmerman, SS
23. Leon Landry, OF
24. Matt Magill, RHP
25. Travis Schlichting, RHP
26. James Baldwin III, OF
27. Russell Mitchell, 3B/1B
28. Shawn Tolleson, RHP
29. Kyle Russell, OF
30. Blake Smith, OF

by Brandon Lennox on Nov 9, 2011 3:16 PM PST up reply actions  

The above list is is...for comparison, here was my top 30 from last year

1 Zach Lee
2 Jerry Sands
3 Dee Gordon
4 Chris Withrow
5 Rubby De La Rosa
6 Kenley Jansen
7 Ethan Martin
8 Trayvon Robinson
9 Carl Webster
10 Garrett Gould
11 Scott Elbert
12 Jonathan Garcia
13 James Baldwin
14 Aaron Miller
15 Nathan Eovaldi
16 Ralston Cash
17 Kyle Russell
18 Joshua Lindblom
19 Jake Lemmerman
20 Blake Smith
21 Leon Landry
22 Joc Pederson
23 Pedro Baez
24 Matthew Magill
25 Ivan De Jesus
26 Brian Cavazos-Galvez
27 Scott Schebler
28 Javier Solano
29 Javy Guerra
30 Jon Link

by Brandon Lennox on Nov 9, 2011 3:17 PM PST up reply actions  

Withrow

…was pretty disappointing in 2010 at the same level he played at in 2011, and there wasn’t exactly much of a rebound this year. Sure, the ERA improved, and there was a slight bump in the K rate, but the walk rate got worse, reaching the point of untenability. That drops him down. He is going to drop more — in my eyes — if he doesn’t seriously get his act together in 2012.

by CanuckDodger on Nov 9, 2011 4:15 PM PST up reply actions  

Smith

…is older than Songco, ideally should really have reached Double A before his age 24 season, and while he probably has as much raw power as Songco, and has more defensive value, he strikes out a lot, especially for his age relative to competition, raising the same concerns that have already made me write off Kyle Russell. Add to that he missed quite a bit of time this year with an injury, and an injury-marred season always knocks somebody down in rankings like these.

by CanuckDodger on Nov 9, 2011 3:57 PM PST up reply actions  

Does Ralston Cash now suck?

And Josh Wall is going to be 25 next year.
He’s not a prospect.

by Joey Joe on Nov 9, 2011 8:16 PM PST reply actions  

Ralston Cash and Josh Wall

Cash missed the full 2011season with an injury, and it is not like he has a prior admirable record of performance that we can look at, so it is not unreasonable to keep him off the Top 30 list this year. Nothing says that somebody who misses the list this year can’t do well in 2012 and be on next year’s list.

As for Josh Wall, his fastball has been clocked at 100 MPH in the Arizona Fall League, and he was reaching the high 90’s in Chattanooga. His age did cause me to put him a little further down the list than I otherwise would have, but a guy can certainly be a reliever prospect at his age. We drafted Javy Guerra as an 18-year-old and he just made the majors this past season as a 25-year-old. Was Guerra not a prospect after his age 24 season in 2010? I put Guerra at #21 on last year’s list, and now I have put Wall at #22.

by CanuckDodger on Nov 9, 2011 9:00 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, would not shock me at all for Wall to be a contributor next year.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Nov 10, 2011 10:55 AM PST up reply actions  

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Pos No Player 2012 Salary
C 17 Ellis $490,000
1B 7 Loney $6,375,000
2B 37 Herrera $375,082
3B 6 Hairston $2,250,000
SS 9 Gordon $485,000
LF 23 Abreu $401,311
CF 10 Gwynn $850,000
RF 16 Ethier $10,950,000

OF/1B 33 Van Slyke $388,197
2B/3B 3 Kennedy $800,000
OF/1B 30 Sands $375,175
IF 13 DeJesus $448,992
C 18 Treanor $850,000

SP 22 Kershaw $6,000,000
SP 58 Billingsley $9,000,000
SP 29 Lilly $12,000,000
SP 44
Harang $3,000,000
SP 35 Capuano $3,000,000

CL 74
Jansen $491,000
RHP 52 Lindblom $483,000
RHP 51 Belisario $414,426
RHP 54 Guerra $488,000
RHP 28
Wright $900,000
LHP 57 Elbert $488,500
RHP 60 Coffey $1,000,000

DL 27 Kemp $10,000,000
DL 21 Rivera $4,000,000
DL 12 Sellers $481,000
DL 5 Uribe $8,000,000
DL 55 Guerrier $4,750,000
DL 14 Ellis $2,500,000
60DL 36 Hawksworth $495,000
60DL 41 De La Rosa $485,000

AA 50 Eovaldi $7,885
AAA 56 Antonini $7,869



Manny $8,087,432 deferred


Andruw $3,375,000 deferred


Pierre $3,050,000 deferred
Furcal $3,000,000 deferred
Kuroda $2,000,000 deferred
Garland $1,500,000 option buyout
Blake $1,250,000 option buyout
DFA 66 MacDougal $650,000

Totals
$115,942,869

For more detailed information, click here.

Current 40-man roster count: 42
(incl. De La Rosa & Hawksworth)

Yahoo_full_count

Manager

Eric___ned___reporters_2011_trade_deadline_small Eric Stephen

Editors

100_1427_small Phil Gurnee

Dgy_small David Young

Hanauma_bay_small Chad Moriyama

2501_small Michael White

Raptors_small Brandon Lennox

Img_0103_small CraigMinami