TBLA Community Projection Review - MVP Matt Kemp

This is what Eric had to say coming into the season.

Probably no one destroyed the experts more then Matt Kemp this season. Matt Kemp did not simply beat every single projection, he stomped on them, lit them on fire, and kicked them into the gutter.

2011 Projections - Age 26 Season



Year
PA HR
Runs RBI BA OBP SLG
Bill James
671 27 98 95 .280 .339 .484
Marcel
601 21 79 78 .276 .333 .458
Baseball HQ
646 28 84 88 .270 .326 .475
ZiPS
631 23 88 88 .271 .327 .458
Actual 689 39 115 126 .324 .399 .586

The question here is, did any TBLA members see this MVP season coming?

Lets take a look:

My goodness, the answer is a resounding yes. Considering his 2010 season, considering how the "experts" viewed his 2011 season, the community projections were as rosy as the cheeks on a December baby boy in Wisconsin.

SilverWidow dominates these reviews and while he almost hit the home runs on the head (38) he didn't believe in the rest of his game so for once he does not make the top three.

IIDown might be the closest to the breakout (.305/.375/.520 - 35 HR’s -35 SB’s)

G Scott looks to be the biggest negative .270/.335/.425 with only 24 home runs.

Regfairfield only gave him a .790 OPS

Moderators Mike and Dave were not overly optimistic, barely giving him an .800 OPS.

Eric on the other hand had this to say in his preview:

I'll guess .286/.349/.509 for Kemp with 35 home runs.

Mondesi is the only Dodger ever with 30 homers and 30 steals in the same season, doing so in 1997 and 1999. Kemp will join Mondesi in the 30/30 club this season.

Eric certainly nailed Matt Kemp season, almost giving us the magic 40 / 40 season.

OB12, Keith13, SteveSaxPhone, and BFDC all had an OPS over .850.

Yet the negative nancy himself, Tripon might have the best case against IIDown with his .280/.360/.510 with 32 homers and 27 steals line.

Hollywood Joe may be the only one with a .900 OPS and 30 /30 gig 285 /.350 / .550

Jason007 looks good with .293/.348/.501and 34 homeruns 32 steals

Update: missed Maddz the first time through, she called the 40/40 season. Most of us figure that Matt would have hit the 40/40 if they had let him play 162 games.

Very tough call here, like an Gaslamp vote anything is possible here. I'm going with:

1st - IIDown

2nd - Eric for being the second closest on home runs, hitting 30 / 30, and a solid OPS

3rd - HJ for the .900 OPS, no one else seems to have hit that number and Maddz for the 40/40. Maddz would have won 1st place if she had some batting average faith.

With plenty of honorable mentions and two raspberries for G Scott and Regfairfield.

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