Juan Uribe TBLA Community Projection Review


Eric Stephen did the Juan Uribe preview in 2011

His most telling quote:

But what if Uribe isn't an upgrade, or a marginal one at best? Remember, Uribe spent his age 25-28 years hitting .241/.284/.409, a 77 OPS+ with the White Sox. He does have a career on-base percentage of .2998, after all. There is the fear that Uribe could revert to his almost-out-of-baseball status at any time.

Year Age PA HR Runs RBI BA OBP SLG wOBA
2008
29 353 7 38 40 .247 .296 .386 .296
2009
30 432 16 50 55 .289 .329 .495 .351
2010
31 575 24 64 85 .248 .310 .440 .322
2011
32 295 4 21 28 .204 .264 .293 .250
2011 Projections - Age 32 Season



Year
PA HR Runs RBI BA OBP SLG
Bill James
537 19 59 69 .243 .296 .410
Marcel
531 18 58 68 .256 .311 .434
Baseball HQ
482 17 55 68 .260 .311 .436
ZiPS
510 20 53 66 .239 .288 .426

We all know Uribe suffered through an injury plagued season of under Hollywood Bridge urine proportion. Did anyone see that coming? Not the experts, shockingly they expected the same production in 2011 as he delivered in 2012 with slight dips in OB and Slug.

How did our community do?

Michael White was extremely optimistic: .267/.320/.450 in 560 plate appearances

Eric not as optimistic but still in the camp that Uribe was more then useful: 257/.316/.444 with 21 home runs

Tripon felt Uribe would replace Casey Blake just fine: .248/.320/.407 for 2011.

Kinbote: .262/.305/.411 19 HR. His defense regresses.

Even Andrew bit into the Uribe vibe though he did it with humor: .260/.300/.445 25 home runs, 32 RBI.

Wineraquet might win for most optimistic given his OB projection: 255, 20 HR’s and 355 OBP

David Young was two years late:

Uribe 2011

.254 / .299 / .421 17 HR, 110 games at 2B, 8 SS, and 35 at 3B.

Uribe 2013
His rapid decline will be difficult to watch.

I'm a bit surprised no one went with total failure given how many of the community were not happy with the move. Based on the comments this winter it sounds like the community is expecting a bounceback for Juan. That is easy, when you are the worst player in baseball you can count on a bounceback just as you can count on some regression from the best player in baseball. For the Dodgers, the big question is how much of a bounceback will Uribe have? Back to his White Sox days when he was still lousy, or all the way back to his very useful Giant days? Even before the injuries, Juan was a free swinging mess. Can time cure that?

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