Hanley Ramirez Trade Thoughts

Buster Olney reports that Hanley Ramirez may be traded. Fangraphs shows that from 2009-2011, Hanley Ramirez has the 2nd highest WAR of MLB shortstops for that period, only behind Troy Tulowitzki (but by a lot; Tulo posted 18.4 WAR from 2009-2011 vs Hanley's 13.2, followed by Jeter at 12.2).

If the Dodgers were to do this, there are two things to consider:

First - players to offer. The Marlins may or may not be interested in more expensive major league talent. They don't need a first baseman that isn't Pujols, they could use pitching, a center fielder and a third baseman (and probably someone in the bullpen).

Second - payroll to clear. The Dodgers can't trade newly signed players, and YCTPYDWFPYDW (you can't trade players you don't want for players you do want). Candidates include Ted Lilly (22.5m* owed from 2012-2013) and Juan Uribe (owed 15m** from 2012-2013), but most likely will be Chad Billingsley (35m owed from 2012-2014).

Hanley Ramirez will be owed $47.5m from 2012-2014 (15, 15.5, 16).

Theory 1:

The Marlins are trying to win now in the new park, and will want proven MLB talent in return.

Phase 1: Package Chad Billingsley, Allen Webster, Chris Withrow for Hanley Ramirez and $12m (500k in 2012, 11.5m in 2013)

Phase 2: Gordon, Tolleson for David Wright (provided that Wright signs an extension within the negotiation window, since he can void the 2013 team option if traded)

Theory 2:

The Marlins want a 3B

Package Chad Billingsley, Allen Webster, Chris Withrow, Juan Uribe for Hanley Ramirez

Juan Uribe and Tolleson with $1m ($900k in 2012, $100k in 2013) for Brandon Boggs

Theory 3:

The Marlins want a good 3B

Phase 1: Dee Gordon, Allen Webster for David Wright

Phase 2: David Wright for Hanley Ramirez

Phase 3: Chad Billingsley and James Loney for Nolan Reimold and Mark Reynolds


Again, just some guesswork, and I'm sure plenty of other people have better ideas.

* plus 1.5m in both 2012 and 2013 as a signing bonus
** plus 1m deferred money

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