Question for the Stat Geeks
by stevesaxaphone on Feb 10, 2011 8:56 AM PST
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PrintI've always held up that protection goes a long way for most baseball players. Not only who they're batting ahead of and who they're batting behind but who else is in the order anywhere. We've seen the effects recently when looking at Andre Ethier's production with Manny in the lineup and with out Manny in the lineup. And, I'm assuming that we'll see Russell Martin's numbers go up when he (even at his very best) would have looked out of place in the Yankees lineup.
So - what I'm asking you - is there a number, a measurement, a tool that can be used to measure this numerically? Can you predict how a player would do in a different lineup? Can you predict how a player would do when he's no longer the scariest guy in a lineup?
Thanks!
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If you are talking about lineup protection
it is likely a myth, and your sample, is a sample size of one. Personally, doing the in-depth research that one has to do to study this theory is beyond my means. But Tom Tango one of the leading authorities in the “stat nerd” kingdom wrote about this topic in his book and this article at the Hardball Times uses his work to show some data on this topic.
As far as a player like Russell Martin improving because he is now part of the Yankees lineup, I don’t think the rest of the players in the lineup would have any measurable effect on how he would do. He might score more runs and get more RBIs just due to the fact that more runners will be on base when he hits and people hitting around him will be more likely to drive him in when he does reach base. Any improvement to his OPS would be effected by such things as, park, health, change in true talent level, aging, level of opposing pitchers – more so than the players surrounding him in the lineup.
by Xeifrank on Feb 10, 2011 9:51 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Thanks Very Hepful BUT
Do you think if a pitcher is facing Martin knowing that if he gets on base this inning, then there’s a better chance of him having to face Tex/A-Rod/Swisher/Granderson/Jeter/Cano or that there’s already 2 runners on base that he’s going to give Martin the same pitches as he would have if he’d have known that behind Martin was Kershaw, Furcal, or Ryan Theriot?
by stevesaxaphone on Feb 10, 2011 10:20 AM PST up reply actions
I'm sure pitchers think of a lot of things...
(and may even pitch slightly differently) but I doubt it increases something like Martin’s slg%. He may get a few more walks hitting in front of the pitcher in the NL.
You also could just as easily argue this… when the #8 hitter (R.Martin in the NL) comes up with the crappy hitting pitcher up next the opposing pitcher will try harder to get him out, wanting the pitcher to either leadoff the next inning or not up there to sacrifice a runner over into scoring position.
I must say, from my experience, who was on deck never crossed my mind. I wanted to get each and every hitter out and played away from their individual strengths and went after their individual weakness. Maybe that’s because college has a DH, so it doesn’t really matter if you walk the 8 guy, you’re gonna face some other guy who can drop a bomb.
I try to avoid looking at my mother in the tits, regardless of the situation.
so you'd feel just as comfortable
letting a guy on base if you had Albert Pujols up next as you would if you had Ryan Theriot up next?
by stevesaxaphone on Feb 10, 2011 12:40 PM PST up reply actions
You’re never comfortable letting someone get on base. Sure, there are times you would rather face the guy on deck or a situation may call for putting the hitter on base, but those are usually times like 1 out runner on second and you want the option of the double play.
Moreso what I’m saying is that if the hitter can’t hit a curveball, and curveballs are harder to throw for strikes, even with Pujols on deck and you not wanting to walk the guy at the plate, you still attack his weakness.
A step further, all I’m really saying is that I personally treated every hitter as dangerous and who I wanted to get out. Ryan Theriot still succeeds 25% of the time and Albert Pujols still failes 70% of the time.
I try to avoid looking at my mother in the tits, regardless of the situation.
did that work out for you?
did you ever feel more exhausted and overwhelmed pitching through a “tough” lineup than a weak one? i mean this both mentally and physically.
if you got through Jeter/Cano/Tex/A-Rod/Swisher/Granderson/Gardner before facing Martin you would have had the same “stuff” as if you’d just gotten through Furcal/Kemp/Loney/Blake/Ethier/DeWitt?
by stevesaxaphone on Feb 10, 2011 2:15 PM PST up reply actions
Physically you’d have the same stuff because you treat every batter the same. Emotionally, yeah there is a bit of a let down after you’ve gone through the AL All Star Team, but it usually shows itself by you being mentally fatigued sooner. On the other hand, if you’re cruising through the AL All Star team, you’re feeling pretty good about yourself. I don’t know, I just talked myself out of my point.
I try to avoid looking at my mother in the tits, regardless of the situation.
by the way
to both of you…I am totally not trying to be an asshole here at all :) i find the statistics stuff very interesting, but I don’t know it all that well, and it’s interesting to me to contrast really detailed stats with the actual, human part of the game.
by stevesaxaphone on Feb 11, 2011 6:34 AM PST up reply actions
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