Dodger Bullpen: The Good, The Bad, The Ugly

Since the Dodger bullpen will have some significant changes for 2011, it seems to be a good time to review how the new folks compare to current and recent past relievers in specific game situations. One of the first concerns has to do with finding someone who can handle left-handed hitters other than Hong-Chih Kuo.

It looks like our four best relievers against lefties are Kuo (.095) and three right-handers: Padilla (.167), Schlichting (.171), and Jansen (.205). Padilla? What about Scott Elbert or Ron Mahay, signed to a minor league contract because of his ability to attack left-handed hitters? Elbert and Mahay have similar numbers against lefties (.219), but Padilla snacks on left-handed hitters with the 12th lowest opponent BA in the majors among qualified pitchers. Guerrier looks good no matter who he throws to (R-.210, L-.236). By the way, Mahay pitches better against lefties with runners in scoring position (.182) but continues to struggle against righties (.292). How do the newcomers compare to last year's left-handed specialist? Left-handed hitters posted a .192 batting average against George Sherrill last year—very good. George's problem was that he turned most right-hander hitters into either Ted Williams—a .427 opponent batting average or Babe Ruth—an OPS of 1.223, higher than Ruth's lifetime OPS of 1.164. Please note that if there is one guy to bring in to face a right-handed batter, it's Kenley Jansen. Right-handers can't seem to find Jansen's fastball. They managed just three singles in his 27 innings of work in 2010.

Next, who should be brought in when the Dodgers need a ground ball. Who handles double play situations? Here we have the man who had the 8th highest ground ball percentage (61%) among all relievers last year with 20 or more innings. That would be Ronald Belisario. Yes, I know we all thought Belisario had a bad year (pitching and otherwise), but the man produces ground balls better than any other Dodger reliever.

What about preventing inherited runners from scoring? Last year's "Dodger Worst" champion for allowing runners to score was Ramon Troncoso with 22 of 39 ( 59%). George Sherrill allowed more runs (24), but he had 59 runners when he entered the game for an overall success percentage of 41%. Not good, but he was better than Broxton (50%), Schlichting (53%) and the new guy, Blake Hawksworth (45%). The best Dodger pitcher for preventing inherited runners from scoring is gone—Jeff Weaver (21%). So who handles these situations well among the current crop? Naturally, we can depend on Kuo—29% of his inherited runners scored last year. Belisario was even better—only 7 of 31 scored (23%) as our best ground ball producer does a great job of handling these situations. Matt Guerrier and Ron Mahay could be as good or better than Belisario as only 10 of 45 inherited runners reached home plate against Guerrier and 10 of 40 against Mahay. It appears that Guerrier and Mahay, if he makes the roster, will be an upgrade over Sherrill and Troncoso.

Another area of need for the Dodgers are relievers who can pitch on consecutive days. I was unable to come up with ERA stats for relievers pitching on consecutive days, but I did find that Guerrier did it 20 times in 2010—more than any Dodger pitcher. Over one-fourth of his appearances came after he had pitched the previous day. Considering Guerrier's performance overall, he looks like a plus in this area. Belisario had 19 consecutive-day appearances, Broxton and Sherrill had 18 apiece.

Thanks to The Bill James Handbook, we now can look at a new stat on relievers. James quantifies "clean outings" which means appearances in which a reliever does not allow a run and does not allow an inherited runner to score. I call this a "good outing". Here are the Dodger relievers, 2010 (and potentially 2011) and their number and percentage of good outings ranked from best to worst:

Kuo 47 of 56—84%

Jansen 20 of 25—80%

Guerrier 53 of 74—72%

Belisario 41 of 59—69%

Broxton 43 of 64—67%

Mahay 27 of 41—66%

Weaver 28 of 44—64%

Monasterios 11 of 19—58%

Sherrill 37 of 65—57%

Troncoso 29 of 52—56%

Hawksworth 18 of 37—49%

Schlichting 5 of 14—36%

Guerrier appears to be a significant addition. Hawksworth and Schlichting look like candidates for AAA. Troncoso might have been destroyed by all those early season appearances. Sherrill needs to look for a new line of work. Monasterios might be excused somewhat because he was a long man and it is tougher to come away with zeros when you pitch multiple innings.

Bill James separates saves into three categories: easy, regular, and tough. (Tough saves are those where the pitcher enters the game with the tying run on base.) Broxton's troubles are well known. He converted 22 of 26 easy and regular saves, but blew all 3 tough ones. Kuo converted all 12 of his easy and regular saves, but failed on his one toughie. In fact, Dodger relievers faced only 11 tough save situations last year and converted just one. Thank you, Kenley Jansen. Is Guerrier an upgrade here? Guerrier looks good, but he is definitely a setup man, not a potential closer. He has 20 save opportunities in the past four years and converted only four. He entered in four tough save spots last year and converted zero. His best work was done in the seventh and eight innings. Hawksworth did not enter in a save situation last year, showing his manager's lack of faith in his ability. Mahay had one chance and blew it. On the Dodger side, Kenley Jansen converted all four of his chances. Move over, Jon Broxton.

Overall, Kuo, as usual, looks excellent, but he cannot pitch every day. Jansen's upside his huge. Broxton needs to lose that caboose he is carrying around. It may be pulling him backward toward second base and slowing down his fastball. He also needs to stop hiding behind his glove and change his attitude. Sometimes he looks frightened out there. Guerrier looks very good as a guy who can pitch a lot of innings and do it on consecutive days. Padilla is an upgrade as a long reliever over Monasterios and Weaver, but his best could be as a closer who can get left handed hitters out almost as well as Kuo. The question on Padilla is adapting to the rigors of bullpen pitching. Hawksworth may have been a mistake. He has shown nothing to indicate a prediction for a successful future. Mahay could be useful if he can save Padilla for more important work. He can pitch to lefties and he knows how to come in with runners on and keep them there. Monasterios is young and inexperienced, but should improve. Schlichting's pitching motion confuses lefties, but he probably opens in AAA. If Elbert has a good spring he might hang on. But Elbert has the burden of potential on his back. He has great stuff, but it never seems to translate into success.

Last, George Sherrill is gone. He made more relief appearances for the Dodgers last year than anyone, but that .427 batting average for opponent right-handed hitters says it all. What was Joe Torre thinking?