2011 Dodgers Player Profile: Juan Uribe, The Costly Upgrade
by Eric Stephen on Mar 26, 2011 6:00 AM PDT
in Community Projections
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Heading into the offseason, the Dodgers identified their top needs as starting pitching (only Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley were signed) and a middle infielder. In 2010, Dodgers' second basemen were underwhelming, hitting a combined .253/.339/.330 with three home runs. The Dodgers decided to upgrade from Ryan Theriot, who was arbitration eligible, and did so with free agant Juan Uribe, fresh off a World Series win with the Giants.
But oh, what a price the Dodgers paid.
Uribe was a valuable player for the Giants in the last two seasons. He hit a combined .266/.318/.464, a 105 OPS+, with 50 doubles and 40 home runs in 2009 and 2010 combined, and played all over the infield. Uribe started 131 games at shortstop, 56 games at second base, and 55 games at third base in two years with San Francisco. Not bad for somebody who signed a minor league deal before 2009, and made a total of $4.25 million in two years as a Giant.
The Dodgers signed Uribe for a whopping three years and $21 million. His versatility played a part in his signing, as the Dodgers have the injury-prone Casey Blake at third base and Rafael Furcal at shortstop, and although both have options for 2012, it seems likely that at least one of them, if not both, won't be back next year. Even this year, though the plan is for Uribe to play mostly second base, Uribe will open the season at third base with Blake on the disabled list.
On one hand, Uribe seems like a clear upgrade over what the Dodgers had last year at second base, even if a few of the projections below might suggest otherwise. Much like the case with Rod Barajas, the Dodgers appear to have traded some on-base percentage for power. But even if one accepts that Uribe is in fact an upgrade, giving him the richest contract this winter for a second baseman seems like a risky venture.
But what if Uribe isn't an upgrade, or a marginal one at best? Remember, Uribe spent his age 25-28 years hitting .241/.284/.409, a 77 OPS+ with the White Sox. He does have a career on-base percentage of .2998, after all. There is the fear that Uribe could revert to his almost-out-of-baseball status at any time. Then again, he succeeded for two years back in the National League, and the Dodgers are betting Uribe will continue to do so. It's a $21 million bet.
Trivia
Uribe hit just .149/.196/.277 in 51 postseason plate appearances for the Giants last year, but flags fly forever and Uribe will always be remembered in San Francisco for the game-winning sacrifice fly in Game 4 of the NLCS, the go-ahead home run in the eighth inning of the pennant-clinching Game 6 of the NLCS, and a three-run home run that broke open Game 1 of the World Series.
Uribe has hit 20 home runs in four of the last seven seasons, averaging 18 per season during that time. There have only been four seasons in Dodgers franchise history in which a player hit 20 home runs as a second baseman.
Contract Status
Uribe is in the first year of a three-year, $21 million contract. He will be paid $5 million in 2011.
Stats
| Year | Age | PA | HR | Runs | RBI | BA | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
| 2008 |
29 | 353 | 7 | 38 | 40 | .247 | .296 | .386 | .296 |
| 2009 |
30 | 432 | 16 | 50 | 55 | .289 | .329 | .495 | .351 |
| 2010 |
31 | 575 | 24 | 64 | 85 | .248 | .310 | .440 | .322 |
| 2011 Projections - Age 32 Season | |||||||||
| Year | PA | HR | Runs | RBI | BA | OBP | SLG | ||
| Bill James | 537 | 19 | 59 | 69 | .243 | .296 | .410 | ||
| Marcel | 531 | 18 | 58 | 68 | .256 | .311 | .434 | ||
| Baseball HQ | 482 | 17 | 55 | 68 | .260 | .311 | .436 | ||
| ZiPS | 510 | 20 | 53 | 66 | .239 | .288 | .426 | ||
2011 Outlook
The Bill James and ZiPS projections seem a tad pessimistic to me. I'll pick Uribe to hit .257/.316/.444 with 21 home runs. I think Uribe will start 106 games at second base, 11 at shortstop, and 32 at third base.
What is your guess for Uribe in 2011? Be sure to guess BA/OBP/SLG, PA, and number of starts at each infield position.
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Comments
My hunch is that
at least 7 of these names will be in the Opening Day lineup on Thursday. Do you think more or less?
Padres lineup
Venable CF
Bartlett SS
Hudson 2B
Cantu 1B
Ludwick LF
Denorfia RF
Headley 3B
Hundley C
Moseley P
I think this is a case..
Where Uribes best attributes, arent showing up on his baseball card. When you hear guys like John Danks, saying Uribe was his favorite teammate, it gets me interested. One of my best friends is a HUGE Sox fan, and uribe was one of his favorites. I look at how last season ended, and the morale of that team.. They desperately needed SOMEBODY in that clubhouse to step up, and get everybody back on the same page. Dudes got two rings on his fingers. Im excited about Uribe. Remember who played 2b last year, DeWitt and Theriot, and how many homeruns did they hit? The infield DESPERATELY needed more pop, and Uribe provides that. He also buys more time for DeJesus and Gordon to refine their games before they are called up for good. I remember everybody ripping the Carroll signing, and how much everyone liked him towards the end. I think I see another scenario, where the same will happen with Uribe.
If the Dodgers have Carroll $21 million for 3 years, more people would have ripped it, and would still be ripping it now even after his good year.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 26, 2011 8:19 AM PDT up reply actions
Personally, I prefer players whose best attributes do show up on the baseball card. I know it’s snarky, but come on.
Do the chair know we gonna look like some punk-ass bitches out there?
I prefer baseball players whose best attributes show up on the baseball diamond. I don’t give a fig how much fun he is to drink with or if he owns at playing “Maps” on Rock Band. If he doesn’t perform, he isn’t helpful.
"It's supposed to be hard. If it wasn't hard, everyone would do it. The hard... is what makes it great."
Carrolls not worth that..
And thats not what I was implying. And I didnt see it as snarky, because I totally understand what you’re saying.. but its not like he is struggling to hit the mendoza line, or anything. personally, I dont care how much any said player is getting in a contract. theres so many people that bitch about the Dodgers spending, and when they do pony it up, people still bitch. If a player is productive, why does it matter how much he makes, at least to the common fan?
If a player is productive, why does it matter how much he makes, at least to the common fan?
I don’t care about the common fan. It matters how much somebody makes because every team has a budget, and it affects the ability to add other players.
I think Uribe was an upgrade, but I also think the Dodgers paid too much for him.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 26, 2011 8:44 AM PDT up reply actions
You’re right, they did pay too much for him, but he will be an improvement over whatever was on the roster.
(Oh, and I resent being called ‘common’. My mom told me I was ‘special’.)
Baseball is a game, and games are supposed to be fun.
I'll say this
If iidown starts commenting here, we will have reached a new plateau. :)
by Eric Stephen on Mar 26, 2011 8:54 AM PDT up reply actions
And I get that..
But 7 per year, should be easily absorbed by a club like the Dodgers. I would understand the resentment if this was the Pirates, but it’s not.
by darrelld on Mar 26, 2011 10:27 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I don’t think a guy is a terrible signing unless he’s actively blocking the team from improving at that position.
This year, yeah, Uribe will be fine most likely. The issue is that he’s one step backwards from being a useless player. If Uribe gets any worse we’re gonna be stuck starting a guy with a .270-.280 on base for the next couple years and that’s unacceptable. Not too many players don’t decline when they hit their 30s.
@andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Mar 26, 2011 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions
Uribe Averages 4 Big Macs per game.
Oh you want his season stats.
.248/.320/.407 for 2011.
Which, if you look into it was just copy and pasted from Casey Blake’s B-ref page for the 2010 season. I don’t like Uribe at all, but I realize that if I think Blake has mostly lived up to his contract, Uribe might be able to, I guess.
In comparison, Uribe actually produced a
.248/.310/.440 slash line for the Giants in 2010. Remarkably similar and both Blake and Uribe had the same OPS+.
Unless of course you’re Sri Lankan. Then it’s going very well. Sri Lanka, outstanding, are just about to knock England out of the world cup, for loss of no wickets (no one out).
No, not really. Sri Lanka are better at this form of cricket, and are playing at home. England are at the end of an absurdly taxing tour – 4 months in Australia, then over a month here, lots of injuries, everyone worn out. They’ve been playing sort of crazily in the world cup, losing to very weak teams, winning against the strong teams. Today they came to the end of the line. They played OK in their innings, but that wasn’t good enough against Sri Lanka, who weren’t really challenged in their own innings and didn’t have to take risks. The world cup is being played in India, Bangladessh and Sri Lanka (too dangerous in Pakistan).
OK, here we go. And it’s over. Sri Lankan opening batsman gets his 100th run on the winning run, to join his partner already over 100. Really, really exceptional in this form of cricket.
Soccer, always up early on sat to watch EPL
by Josie Becker on Mar 26, 2011 9:15 AM PDT up reply actions
You Know
the Euro qualifier was on, Captain Details
by Josie Becker on Mar 26, 2011 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions
ESPN had it, the England-Wales match. There’s a couple more on ESPN/FSN today, plus the US friendly v Argentina
by Josie Becker on Mar 26, 2011 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Uribe #'s
Seems like a lot of money for a maybe .750 OPS. But, Uribe immediately becomes the enforcer on this team, so maybe he can motivate Kemp and Loney to improve their numbers.
I’ll take Marcel’s numbers.
I noticed the Dodgers are not last in BA anymore. But, they are last in OBP. Anybody surprised by that?
Uribe would have the weight advantage in most fights.
@andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Mar 26, 2011 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions
Sounds like somebody exercised their out clause.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 26, 2011 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions
I am glad they signed him and no, I don't like the price
but given Casey B’s balky back, etc, it’s good to have the 3rd base depth/flexibility now given they have more options for 2nd base backup than they do 3rd. Uribe upgrades them at 2nd and is a better temp sub at 3rd. I do worry, like everyone about his OBP, but I think he’ll drive in runs, hit with power, and play solid D. He’s overpaid, but I think we’ll need him. And I think the Giants will miss him
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
(PS I predict Thames starts on Thursday)
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
The Show
I’m holding the Giants to one run and four hits with Dana Eveland. Yeah, I’m using the Lookouts in San Francisco. :)
Do you know if they have a customer roster to download with all minor leaguers with the real names? They did that last year..well somebody uploaded one. I’m waiting for that before I start my season so I get all the guys who tech can’t have there name in the game.
by Dodgerblue8188 on Mar 26, 2011 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions
Hahahaha
DKnobler
Scouts following the Yankees say Russell Martin’s defense has gotten progressively worse as the spring has gone on
by silverwidow on Mar 26, 2011 10:32 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
There’s a “polished” joke to made here somewhere.
by silverwidow on Mar 26, 2011 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions
Definitely more than 32 starts at 3rd base in my opinion
Especially with Blake starting the season on the DL.
Blake could be activated as soon as April 6.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 26, 2011 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions
Thought this was kind of amazing
Tim Stauffer, who will start for the Padres on opening day with Latos out, is the second-longest tenured player in the Padres’ organization. The longest? You guessed it, Ernesto Frieri.
Uribe
I think Uribe will hit 255, 20 HR’s and 355 OBP. While I agree with most about the overpay for Uribe-the potential upside for the Dodgers was worth it:
A valued player taken from the top team in the Division
Infield power by far the weakest area of the Dodgers
Can play all infield positions-makes depth alot stronger than just adding a very good cheap utility guy
Everyone says he is a good clubhouse guy-they never said that about Jeff Kent
What is Uribe worth to the Dodgers?
His versatility (2nd, SS and 3rd) make him worth more to other teams with established players signed long term at those positions. Furcal & Blake are on the last year of their contract so when this season ends the Dodgers can sign a free agent at 2nd, 3rd or SS, bring up DeJesus, or Dee Gordon (or even both) and still have a place for everyone. I think the key value to this signing is the 3 years…it gives the Dodgers options for the future.
Uribe 2011:
PA 500
AVG .260
OBP .310
SLG .445
HR 18
SB 4
game weight +35# (add to listed weight)
1/3 games 3B, 2/3 games 2B, few SS appearances
by runningwiththedevil on Mar 27, 2011 12:15 PM PDT reply actions
Uribe 2011
.254 / .299 / .421 17 HR, 110 games at 2B, 8 SS, and 35 at 3B.
Uribe 2013
His rapid decline will be difficult to watch.
@davidyoungtbla - The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
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