March 29th Dodgers vs Angels, Simulation + Contest

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Angels using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.   Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Tuesday at 8:00 AM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 LAN LAA H.Kuroda vs S.Kazmir LAA 49.28% 52.66%


Contest Rules:  Guess "over" or "under" on the five questions below.  You must also give confidence points to each guess.  The guess you have the most confidence in you give 5 points, then 4 points ... down to 1 point for the guess you have the least amount of confidence in.  So you must have a guess of 5,4,3,2,1.  If you get a guess correct you get the number of confidence points you wagered on that guess.  A perfect score would be 5+4+3+2+1=15 points.  The person with the most points for the day wins the number of confidence points they guessed correctly.  If there is a tie then the points are split evenly (rounded up) between all the winners.  Points will be kept track of on a monthly basis then reset (with possibly a different contest type) at the end of the month.  Tuesday's game against the Angels will be a trial run to see how things go and to see if any modifications need to be made.  Points won't count for Tuesday's game against the Angels, but please make a guess anyways.

Over/Under Questions:

A. Total runs scored both teams: 7.5
B. H.Kuroda batters faced: 20.5
C. H.Kuroda strikeouts minus S.Kazmir strikeouts: 1.5
D. Total number of HRs + Triples in game: 1.5
E. Total number of hits both teams: 16.5

Sample Answer: 2AU 3BO, 5CO, 4DU, 1EU

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