FanPost

March 30th, Mariners vs Dodgers - Simulation + Contest

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Mariners and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.   Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Tuesday at 10:15 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 SEA LAN E.Bedard vs R.DeLaRosa LAN 54.00% 54.77%

 

1 LAN 3-2   51 SEA 7-6   101 SEA 11-2
2 LAN 4-3   52 SEA 7-1   102 SEA 9-0
3 LAN 2-1   53 LAN 6-0   103 SEA 11-4
4 LAN 5-4   54 LAN 8-3   104 LAN 11-2
5 SEA 3-2   55 SEA 7-5   105 SEA 10-7
6 SEA 4-3   56 LAN 8-2   106 SEA 9-8
7 SEA 2-1   57 SEA 8-4   107 LAN 11-3
8 LAN 4-2   58 LAN 8-1   108 LAN 10-5
9 LAN 3-1   59 LAN 8-7   109 SEA 11-5
10 SEA 4-2   60 SEA 8-2   110 SEA 10-0
11 SEA 5-4   61 SEA 6-0   111 LAN 11-4
12 SEA 3-1   62 SEA 8-6   112 LAN 12-3
13 LAN 5-3   63 LAN 8-4   113 LAN 10-6
14 LAN 5-2   64 SEA 9-3   114 SEA 10-8
15 LAN 4-1   65 SEA 8-5   115 LAN 12-1
16 LAN 6-5   66 LAN 7-0   116 LAN 12-5
17 SEA 5-3   67 SEA 8-1   117 SEA 12-3
18 LAN 1-0   68 LAN 9-2   118 LAN 11-10
19 SEA 4-1   69 LAN 9-3   119 SEA 11-0
20 SEA 5-2   70 LAN 8-5   120 LAN 12-2
21 LAN 2-0   71 SEA 7-0   121 SEA 11-6
22 LAN 6-3   72 SEA 9-1   122 LAN 11-5
23 LAN 3-0   73 LAN 8-6   123 SEA 10-9
24 LAN 5-1   74 SEA 8-7   124 LAN 11-6
25 LAN 6-4   75 SEA 9-4   125 LAN 10-0
26 SEA 6-3   76 LAN 9-8   126 LAN 12-4
27 SEA 6-5   77 LAN 8-0   127 SEA 11-9
28 LAN 4-0   78 SEA 9-2   128 SEA 12-2
29 SEA 2-0   79 LAN 9-4   129 LAN 13-2
30 SEA 1-0   80 LAN 9-5   130 SEA 13-2
31 SEA 6-4   81 SEA 9-6   131 LAN 13-1
32 SEA 5-1   82 SEA 10-3   132 SEA 11-10
33 SEA 3-0   83 SEA 10-1   133 LAN 10-8
34 SEA 6-2   84 LAN 9-1   134 LAN 10-9
35 LAN 6-2   85 LAN 10-1   135 LAN 11-0
36 LAN 6-1   86 SEA 10-4   136 LAN 12-6
37 SEA 4-0   87 SEA 9-5   137 SEA 10-6
38 LAN 7-6   88 LAN 10-2   138 LAN 13-5
39 SEA 6-1   89 SEA 10-2   139 SEA 12-1
40 SEA 7-4   90 LAN 9-7   140 LAN 12-0
41 SEA 7-3   91 SEA 8-0   141 LAN 14-2
42 LAN 7-2   92 LAN 9-6   142 SEA 12-5
43 SEA 7-2   93 LAN 11-1   143 SEA 12-6
44 LAN 7-4   94 LAN 9-0   144 SEA 12-7
45 LAN 7-3   95 SEA 9-7   145 LAN 13-3
46 LAN 5-0   96 SEA 11-3   146 SEA 13-3
47 LAN 7-5   97 LAN 10-3   147 SEA 13-4
48 LAN 7-1   98 LAN 10-4   148 SEA 12-8
49 SEA 5-0   99 SEA 10-5   149 SEA 13-1
50 SEA 8-3   100 SEA 11-1   150 LAN 14-3

 

 

Contest Rules:  Guess "over" or "under" on the five questions below.  You must also give confidence points to each guess.  The guess you have the most confidence in you give 5 points, then 4 points ... down to 1 point for the guess you have the least amount of confidence in.  So you must have a guess of 5,4,3,2,1.  If you get a guess correct you get the number of confidence points you wagered on that guess.  A perfect score would be 5+4+3+2+1=15 points.  The person with the most points for the day wins the number of confidence points they guessed correctly.  If there is a tie then the points are split evenly (rounded up) between all the winners.  Points will be kept track of on a monthly basis then reset (with possibly a different contest type) at the end of the month.  Wednesday's game against the Mariners will be a second trial run to see how things go and to see if any modifications need to be made.  Points won't count for Wednesday's game against the Mariners, but please make a guess anyways.  You can also win bonus points for correctly guessing the final score from the list of scores in the large table above.  The nightly winner will be the person(s) with the most over/under points.  If you guess the score correctly you get a bonus of whatever number the final score is in the table.  Nobody has to guess the final score correctly to win points.

Over/Under Questions:

A. Total runs scored both teams: 7.5
B. R.De La Rosa total batters faced: 19.5
C. Mariners stolen bases minus Dodgers HRs: 0.5
D. Dodgers total bases: 10.5
E. Number of bullpen pitchers used both teams: 7.5

Sample Answer: 2AU 3BO, 5CO, 4DU, 1EU, #54 LAN 8-3

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