Prognostications For The 2011 Dodgers

I guess David and I are the “Negative Nancys” for 2011.

I go with Phil’s 91-71 finish because I am an optimist. Its what Im hoping for, not what I really feel will happen becuz to be honest its such a crapshoot in this division. SF will be strong but I doubt they repeat. and as always the Rockies will be a pain in the ass.

80-82, same as last year.

At best this offense is no better on paper than what happened last year and even if Matt Kemp goes absolutely banana I can’t see the team scoring more than 700 runs. At worst this team finishes in the bottom five in runs scored in the MLB.

Defense is at best a wash from last year. Second base improves, Kemp probably won’t have a -10 UZR in the first two weeks, but Furcal and Blake get another year older and we’re going to have an absolute butcher in left all year instead of a couple months.

Relief pitching will improve a little but on paper we only have three above average relivers. But Kuo will regress a bit, Jansen doesn’t know the difference between a slider and a cutter and who knows with Broxton.

Starting is the big area of improvement but it’s not as huge as you’d think. You can’t expect Kershaw or Kuroda to do better than last year, Bills probably improves a bet and Lilly is probably a slight improvement on the 3.80ish ERA that he and Padilla combined for. The big improvement is from the five slot but we already have Tim Redding throwing there and even if Garland comes back totally fine he’s probably a two win improvement on what we had last year which is good, but doesn’t make up for the other areas we faltered in. If Garland or anyone else misses significant time, it’s the same cast of Monk and Ely that killed us.

As much as I want to believe I can’t see this team being better than last years.

Without an infusion of more talent or someone playing way over their head (James Loney I am looking at you) the Dodgers will be good enough to be playing meaningful games into the last week of the season, but no playoffs for them.

2nd place, wild card. They sneak in the last week. Hitting will generally be as bad or mediocre as expected but they’ll have some hot streaks on offense, including a couple of patented such streaks from Marcus Thames. Then the pitching will have its ups and downs too. I expect them to compete though, and will be motivated by Barry Larkin picking them 4th.

The Dodgers go 90-72 to claim the NL West crown again with a starting rotation led by 20-game winner Clayton Kershaw. A magical postseason begins with Andre Ethier and midseason acquisition Albert Pujols combining to post a combined OPS of 1.900 to defeat the upstart St. Louis Cardinals and their new franchise player Matt Kemp. This later leads to the decimation of the exceedingly over-hyped Phantastic Four in the third NLCS matchup in the last four years between Philly and LA, with Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Ted Lilly and Hiroki Kuroda perplexing the Phillies hitters with a four game sweep (after completely unforseeable circumstances lead to the beanings of and subsequent debilitating concussions for both Carlos Ruiz and Shane Victorino). A much-anticipated World Series of Dodgers-Yankees is far from disappointing, and despite the brilliance of CC Sabathia and return to Cy Young form for Bartolo Colón, the Boys In Blue win in a thrilling Game 7 when the Pinstripes’ LF Andruw Jones misplays a ball scorched down the left field line by one Marcus Thames, bringing in pinch runner and waiver wire acquisition Scott Podsednik for the clinching 7-6 victory. Amazingly, Kershaw finishes merely third in NL Cy Young voting to Roy Halladay and Jair Jurrjens, Ethier and Pujols split enough NL MVP votes to tie for second behind regular season juggernaut Dan Uggla, and Rafael Furcal finally wins his first Gold Glove after playing in every single game without getting injured.

Fin.

Phil is the optimistic writer?

80-82 yet somehow finish in third place.

86-76 Division champs

When the Dodgers are in trouble/I am not slow,/it’s Hip, Hip, Hip/and away I go!

I love the pitching staff and it will be the strength of the team, no doubt. But I do worry a bit about injuries and/or decline from Lilly, Kuroda, Padilla and Garland. Broxton is a huge key and I think he’ll be better than 2010, but not as good as prior years.
On offense, the team is relying on bounce back seasons from Kemp and Loney, and continued performances from guys who were nearly out of baseball at some point over the past few seasons. I’m sure some of these players will do the job, but I doubt enough of them will hit to make the offense above average. I also don’t think the reinforcements in the farm system are ready to help in 2011.
An exciting 2nd place finish. I’m looking forward to it.

The team does ok-ish going into the trade deadline which results in another patented series of Ned moves that removes even more talent from the farm in exchange for pitchers with shiny save numbers and ‘impact bats’. The additions arent enough to overcome reality and the team limps into a .500 finish.

And we go undefeated in the playoffs. Why so negative with one loss you ask? I predict Jon Broxton blows one save, as a double play ball gets by DeJesus on opening day. They win every game after..

for getting caught up in an absolute that did not become absolute. I do recall saying barring injury but this is still a huge surprise to me.
Brandon Belt is going to be playing 1st base against the Dodgers on opening Day

Can’t say I’d throw him and Huff in against Kershaw, add two more K’s to Kershaw’s total for Thursday

Mathis, Wilson, and Conger

makes team

Kershaw and Bills both win 15+ games but nobody else wins more than 10 games. Broxton loses the closing role before April is over. Furcal only plays about 80 games.

Kemp hits 30 home runs but still only bats about .250
Loney is traded before the deadline.

Third place. Only Bills and Kershaw have good years on the mound. Kemp comes back a bit, but not enough to carry the team. Ethier commits suicide by the all-star break, Blake breaks in two, Uribe caves in third base from his weight, Loney is Loney.

NY Times going subscription. If it works that will be the model for TBLA going forward:)

will be enough to win the West. I look for a healthy Furcal, a resurgent Bison, and the emergence of Jansen after Ned trades Broxton and Ellis for Ryan Doumit.

I can easily see us upgrading our LF situation through a trade midseason, and we can do well enough to survive till then.

Dirk Nowitzki has made 74 straight free throws, and that’s not even the longest streak of his career! He made 82 straight at the end of last season into this season. The NBA record is 97, by Micheal Williams in 1993.

Will Dirk snap that streak at Staples Center, either tonight against the Clips or tomorrow against the Lakers?

…good enough to win the West.

They start the season by embarrassing the Giants and winning 3 of the first 4, including Opening Day and Sunday Night Baseball.

Kershaw and Bills are awesome, kemp bounces back, andre’s pinkie plays all year, broxton closes, the rest play there rolls. divsion win.

We roll thru the brewers and the braves to the playoffs.

Sweep the Sox for the long over due WS win.

“Coach, are we moving?”

By June our brook’s run out of song and speed.
Sought for much after that, it will be found
Either to have gone groping underground
(And taken with it all the Hyla breed
That shouted in the mist a month ago,
Like ghost of sleigh bells in a ghost of snow)—
Or flourished and come up in jewelweed,
Weak foliage that is blown upon and bent,
Even against the way its waters went.
Its bed is left a faded paper sheet
Of dead leaves stuck together by the heat—
A brook to none but who remember long.
This as it will be seen is other far
Than with brooks taken otherwhere in song.
We love the things we love for what they are.

http://www.mercurynews.com/breaking-news/ci_17728911?nclick_check=1

We are slow out of the gate, mostly due to the offense. The pitching is strong all year as advertised, Kershaw and Bills turn in excellent performances, while Lilly, Kuroda, and Garland are strong and eat lots of innings. This has a positive effect on the bullpen, most notably, Broxton who puts together a fine first couple of months.

However, the team is held back by a struggling offense that only gets going occasionally thanks to Furcal, Kemp and Ethier. Colletti, recognizing the deficiency, parlays Broxton’s good performance into an early June trade for Carlos Beltran. After struggling initially, Beltran hits his stride after the ASB and recaptures some of that health and talent that made him a superstar, by hitting 15 HRs in the second half.

The Dodgers ride two winnings streaks of 8 and 13 games to overtake the Rockies and Giants, who had been battling most of the season for the top spot. The unsung hero of the season is young Josh Lindblom, who steps in after the Broxton trade to provide outstanding middle relief behind Padilla, Kuo, and Jansen.

My friend played a softball game last night. They were up 12-6 going into the bottom of the last inning. They thought they were ensured the win so they swapped pitchers for a crappier pitcher. (supposedly there was a 5 run limit per inning EXCEPT the final inning which is unlimited). Turns out that pitcher blew and they werent allowed to swap pitchers back mid inning so they lost 13-12. I laughed and said that was Dodger-esque!

Kemp will finally stop swinging at the outside slider and his OBP will rise dramatically. He will also hit 30 HR’s, and drive in over 100. Ethier will hit .310 with 26 HR’s, after finally coming to grips with where he will be next year. Loney will finally wilt from the pressure and never hit a ball on the right side of the outfield, thereby becoming the first player to hit only bloop singles for an entire year. But he will hit .280. Uribe and Barajas will combine for 50 HR’s (all solos), The left field situation will continue to provide TBLA with fodder until August, with Thames and Sands finally becoming the Platoon that drives the Dodgers into the playoffs.
The pitching staff, being as deep as projected, powers through the season, with Kershaw and Billingsly being co-Cy Young award winners and Broxton and Kuo are the co-closers with 30 saves each,. Guerrier and Jansen exceed expectations, becoming a great middle inning duo. (You are noticing the symmetry here, aren’t you?) Belisario sends the team hundreds of e-mails from his travels in South America and Europe, gamely trying to find his way to the U.S., while finally ending up playing for a 2nd division team in Amsterdam.
The Dodgers nearly sweep their way through the playoffs, losing only two games, one to the Phillies when Jansen hits Carlos Ruiz as he’s walking up to the plate for his at-bat: Jansen is ejected, and Ruiz scores the only run of the game on a missed double-play ball by DeJesus; and the other to the Yankees when pinch hitter Russ Martin hits a walk-off grand slam off Mac the Ninth, and while rounding the bases, flips the bird to the Dodger dugout. But the Yankees are not heard from again as the Dodgers cruise to the 4-1 series win.
World Series Champs 2011!

One game in August gets canceled when Belisario shows up and everyone is just too confused when he shows up. He weighs only 195 and announces that he was getting in shape and underwent extensive reconstructive surgery to fix his acne. He is still ugly. They don’t make up the game.

Other ridiculous predictions:
Giants finish 4th at 75-87 after Lincecum goes all Ricky Williams on MLB. Only person happier than us is Mat Latos (and maybe Johnny Gomes).

Ethier decides he’s already not on the Dodgers and reports one day to the visiting clubhouse. Prince Fielder charges him, but is restrained. Strangest part is that it’s a game against Houston.

Dodgers trade for Delmon Young to solidify LF. He is too used to being a bat boy at Dodger Stadium to hit.

Anyone going to try this tomorrow? I am very curious about their chili.

We are epic win

but something like 90-72 with Ivan De Jesus being Rookie of the Year, slight change, now I expect both De La Rosa and Sands to be up in the second half.

Cardboard Treasures last night on MLB?

that after I take Bodhi to the vet and maybe…maybe do laundry on Thursday?

I’ll go to the sports bar and get absolutely hammered like Lincecum is going to be! BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA

No but seriously, I’m not sure I can take a Dodger loss tomorrow, my week has been rough, I need a W boys!

Because I always arrive late for threads. But, that’s about what I expect, because even if spring training is irrelevant (which I think it is), this spring just didn’t instill confidence in me about the next six months.

tweet

@MikeSciosciasTI (Mike Petriello) Begin Agent Damage Control protocol, v1.0. RT @dylanohernandez: [Ethier’s agent Laz] Balelo says Ethier is open to staying in LA for the rest of his career.

Clayton Kershaw is donating $100 per strikeout.

http://www.kershawschallenge.com/