Opening Day, Giants vs Dodgers Simulation
by Xeifrank on Mar 30, 2011 10:50 PM PDT
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PrintI used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Giants and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Wednesday at 9:30 PM)
| Vis Pitcher | Home Pitcher | Vegas Favorite | Vegas Win% | Vegas O/U | Sim Fave Win% | Sim O/U |
| Tim Lincecum | Clayton Kershaw | LAN | 50.50% | 6.3 | 54.59 | 6.23 |
| 1 LAN 2-1 | 51 SF 6-0 | 101 LAN 9-8 | ||
| 2 LAN 3-2 | 52 LAN 7-4 | 102 LAN 11-1 | ||
| 3 SF 2-1 | 53 SF 8-2 | 103 SF 11-1 | ||
| 4 LAN 1-0 | 54 SF 7-5 | 104 SF 10-6 | ||
| 5 LAN 4-3 | 55 SF 8-3 | 105 SF 12-2 | ||
| 6 LAN 3-1 | 56 SF 7-6 | 106 SF 12-4 | ||
| 7 SF 3-2 | 57 LAN 7-6 | 107 LAN 9-7 | ||
| 8 SF 1-0 | 58 SF 8-4 | 108 LAN 10-5 | ||
| 9 LAN 2-0 | 59 SF 7-0 | 109 SF 10-5 | ||
| 10 SF 2-0 | 60 SF 8-0 | 110 LAN 11-2 | ||
| 11 SF 4-3 | 61 LAN 8-2 | 111 SF 9-7 | ||
| 12 SF 3-1 | 62 LAN 8-1 | 112 LAN 10-4 | ||
| 13 LAN 3-0 | 63 LAN 8-5 | 113 LAN 10-9 | ||
| 14 LAN 4-1 | 64 LAN 8-0 | 114 SF 11-4 | ||
| 15 LAN 4-2 | 65 LAN 7-5 | 115 LAN 8-6 | ||
| 16 SF 4-2 | 66 LAN 8-3 | 116 LAN 11-4 | ||
| 17 SF 4-1 | 67 SF 9-2 | 117 LAN 12-2 | ||
| 18 LAN 5-4 | 68 LAN 9-0 | 118 LAN 9-6 | ||
| 19 LAN 4-0 | 69 SF 9-0 | 119 SF 11-0 | ||
| 20 SF 3-0 | 70 LAN 9-1 | 120 SF 12-3 | ||
| 21 SF 5-3 | 71 SF 8-6 | 121 LAN 10-6 | ||
| 22 LAN 5-2 | 72 SF 10-3 | 122 SF 13-3 | ||
| 23 SF 5-4 | 73 SF 9-1 | 123 SF 13-4 | ||
| 24 LAN 5-3 | 74 LAN 9-2 | 124 LAN 11-7 | ||
| 25 LAN 5-0 | 75 SF 9-3 | 125 LAN 12-4 | ||
| 26 SF 5-1 | 76 SF 8-5 | 126 LAN 12-1 | ||
| 27 LAN 5-1 | 77 LAN 8-4 | 127 LAN 12-0 | ||
| 28 SF 4-0 | 78 LAN 8-7 | 128 SF 11-6 | ||
| 29 LAN 6-2 | 79 SF 10-1 | 129 SF 11-9 | ||
| 30 SF 5-2 | 80 LAN 9-3 | 130 LAN 12-11 | ||
| 31 SF 6-2 | 81 SF 10-2 | 131 SF 12-0 | ||
| 32 LAN 6-5 | 82 SF 9-5 | 132 SF 12-5 | ||
| 33 LAN 6-1 | 83 LAN 10-1 | 133 SF 13-2 | ||
| 34 SF 6-1 | 84 SF 9-4 | 134 LAN 12-6 | ||
| 35 SF 6-3 | 85 LAN 10-2 | 135 LAN 14-0 | ||
| 36 SF 6-4 | 86 SF 8-7 | 136 SF 13-6 | ||
| 37 SF 5-0 | 87 SF 10-4 | 137 LAN 10-8 | ||
| 38 LAN 6-3 | 88 LAN 9-4 | 138 SF 11-5 | ||
| 39 LAN 6-0 | 89 LAN 10-0 | 139 LAN 12-7 | ||
| 40 LAN 7-2 | 90 SF 10-0 | 140 SF 11-7 | ||
| 41 SF 7-2 | 91 SF 9-6 | 141 LAN 14-3 | ||
| 42 SF 6-5 | 92 LAN 9-5 | 142 LAN 13-1 | ||
| 43 SF 7-1 | 93 SF 11-2 | 143 LAN 11-5 | ||
| 44 LAN 7-1 | 94 SF 11-3 | 144 LAN 12-5 | ||
| 45 LAN 7-3 | 95 SF 9-8 | 145 LAN 14-1 | ||
| 46 LAN 6-4 | 96 LAN 10-3 | 146 SF 10-7 | ||
| 47 SF 7-3 | 97 SF 12-1 | 147 SF 10-8 | ||
| 48 SF 8-1 | 98 LAN 12-3 | 148 SF 10-9 | ||
| 49 SF 7-4 | 99 LAN 11-0 | 149 SF 12-6 | ||
| 50 LAN 7-0 | 100 LAN 11-3 | 150 SF 12-8 |
Contest Rules: Guess "over" or "under" on the five questions below. You must also give confidence points to each guess. The guess you have the most confidence in you give 5 points, then 4 points ... down to 1 point for the guess you have the least amount of confidence in. So you must have a guess of 5,4,3,2,1. If you get a guess correct you get the number of confidence points you wagered on that guess. A perfect score would be 5+4+3+2+1=15 points. The person with the most points for the day wins the number of confidence points they guessed correctly. If there is a tie then the points are split evenly (rounded up) between all the winners. Points will be kept track of on a monthly basis then reset (with possibly a different contest type) at the end of the month. You can also win bonus points for correctly guessing the final score from the list of scores in the large table above. The nightly winner will be the person(s) with the most over/under points. If you guess the score correctly you get a bonus of whatever number the final score is in the table. Nobody has to guess the final score correctly to win points.
Over/Under Questions:
A. Total runs scored both teams: 6.5
B. C.Kershaw total pitches: 99.5
C. Giants starting C/1B total bases minus Dodgers starting C/1B total bases: 1.5
D. T.Lincecum total strikeouts: 6.5
E. Total HRs combined both teams: 0.5
Sample Answer: 2AU 3BO, 5CO, 4DU, 1EU, #27 LAN 5-1
Results
| Participant | A | B | C | D | E | Game Score | Total Pts | |||||
| BFDC | 2 | U | 5 | U | 3 | O | 1 | U | 4 | O | 15 | 12 |
| Michael White | 1 | O | 3 | O | 4 | U | 5 | U | 2 | O | 100 | 11 |
| Xeifrank | 2 | U | 4 | O | 5 | U | 1 | O | 3 | O | 7 | 10 |
| MammothDodger | 3 | U | 4 | U | 2 | U | 5 | O | 1 | O | 14 | 10 |
| Phil Gurnee | 1 | U | 5 | U | 2 | O | 4 | O | 3 | O | 16 | 9 |
| nolander | 3 | U | 4 | O | 1 | U | 2 | O | 5 | O | 27 | 9 |
| kinbote | 1 | O | 2 | O | 3 | U | 4 | O | 5 | O | 62 | 8 |
| Humma Kavula | 1 | U | 5 | U | 3 | O | 4 | O | 2 | O | 35 | 8 |
| G.Scott | 5 | U | 3 | O | 2 | U | 4 | O | 1 | O | 22 | 8 |
| shaqfor3 | 3 | O | 4 | O | 1 | O | 2 | U | 5 | O | 29 | 7 |
| Hollywood Joe | 4 | U | 3 | O | 1 | U | 5 | O | 1 | O | 9 | 6 |
| Josie Becker | 2 | U | 3 | O | 5 | O | 4 | O | 3 | O | 2 | 5 |
| Talka1ot | 3 | U | 5 | O | 4 | O | 2 | O | 1 | O | 13 | 4 |
| Riffraffselbow | 3 | O | 4 | U | 5 | O | 2 | O | 1 | U | 5 | 4 |
| matthewmafa | 2 | O | 5 | O | 1 | U | 4 | O | 3 | O | 5 | 4 |
| StolenMonkey86 | 5 | O | 3 | O | 3 | O | 1 | O | 2 | O | 18 | 2 |
| delias man | 0 | O | 0 | O | 0 | O | 0 | O | 0 | O | 6 | 0 |
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YAY! This thread means it's baseball time!
3AO 5BO 4CU 1DU 2EO, #18 LAN 5-4
by StolenMonkey86 on Mar 30, 2011 11:02 PM PDT reply actions
35 SF 6-3
1AU, 5BU, 3CO, 4DO, 2EO
magnae clunes mihi placent, nec possum de hac re mentiri.
quis enim, consortes mei, non fateatur
It worked last year. I don’t expect it to work again. But I don’t have any other ideas.
magnae clunes mihi placent, nec possum de hac re mentiri.
quis enim, consortes mei, non fateatur
by Humma Kavula on Mar 31, 2011 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions
27 LAN 5-1
3AU. Total runs scored both teams: 6.5
4BO. C.Kershaw total pitches: 99.5
1CU. Giants starting C/1B total bases minus Dodgers starting C/1B total bases: 1.5
2DO. T.Lincecum total strikeouts: 6.5
5EO. Total HRs combined both teams: 0.5
These hands will always be rough
15 LAN 4 - 2
2AU, 5BU, 3CO, 1DU, 4EO, #15 4 – 2 LAN
#29 LAN 6-2
3AO, 4BO, 1CO, 2DU, 5EO
"What doesn't kill you might injure you, or just kill you later." -Czheck Proverb
"Pluto’s not even a planet no more, which I’m very disturbed about. I grew up when Pluto was a planet. Now, I’m 25, I turn around and Pluto’s no longer a planet. I’m going to elbow that guy in the nose." -Ron Artest
14 LAN 4-1
AU3
BU4
CU2
DO5
EO1
I second the notion that it is great of you to do this again Xei!!!
Hating the Giants for going on a half century and counting!
#1 LAN 2-1 hits
A-U
B-U
C-U
D-U
E-U
All unders today. Michael White and MammothDodger tied with 9 points. They split the 9 points and then round up, so they each get 5 points. I updated the body of the post above with a table that has all the results. Feel free to double check. It is all automated from an excel spreadsheet.
Brox homer hurt me today – this was fun, thanks
by Hollywood Joe on Mar 31, 2011 10:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Sorry, I screwed up
Missed the over on the Burrell HR. Winner was BFDC with 12 points. I will update the chart above shortly. Sorry MW and MammothDodger. Question E was an over. Blame Broxton! :)
Yeah, um, Xei
I realize that this may not be the easiest format to scoop data from, but my response was
YAY! This thread means it’s baseball time!
3AO 5BO 4CU 1DU 2EO, #18 LAN 5-4
by StolenMonkey86 on Mar 31, 2011 2:02 AM EDT
not all O’s, so I should have 7, not 2.
Thanks,
by StolenMonkey86 on Apr 1, 2011 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions
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