FanPost

April 10th, Dodgers vs Padres Simulation + Contest

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Padres using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.   Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Sunday at 1:15 AM)

Vis Pitcher Home Pitcher Vegas Favorite Vegas Win% Vegas O/U Sim Fave Win% Sim O/U
John Ely Aaron Harang SD 54.34% 7.3 56.71% 7.29

 

1 SD 3-2   51 SD 7-5   101 LAN 9-8
2 SD 2-1   52 SD 8-2   102 LAN 10-5
3 SD 4-3   53 SD 8-3   103 SD 10-5
4 LAN 3-2   54 LAN 7-6   104 SD 11-1
5 LAN 2-1   55 LAN 7-1   105 SD 11-4
6 SD 3-1   56 SD 7-0   106 SD 10-6
7 LAN 4-3   57 LAN 6-0   107 LAN 11-3
8 SD 5-4   58 LAN 8-3   108 LAN 11-2
9 SD 4-2   59 SD 8-1   109 SD 11-0
10 SD 1-0   60 SD 8-4   110 SD 12-3
11 LAN 3-1   61 LAN 8-2   111 SD 11-5
12 LAN 4-2   62 LAN 8-4   112 SD 10-9
13 SD 4-1   63 SD 9-2   113 SD 12-1
14 SD 5-2   64 SD 8-7   114 LAN 11-4
15 SD 2-0   65 SD 8-5   115 SD 12-2
16 SD 5-3   66 SD 9-1   116 LAN 11-1
17 LAN 5-4   67 LAN 7-0   117 LAN 10-0
18 LAN 4-1   68 LAN 8-5   118 LAN 10-6
19 SD 3-0   69 SD 8-0   119 SD 10-7
20 LAN 5-3   70 LAN 8-1   120 LAN 10-7
21 SD 6-5   71 SD 8-6   121 SD 12-4
22 LAN 1-0   72 LAN 8-6   122 LAN 11-5
23 LAN 2-0   73 SD 9-3   123 LAN 12-3
24 LAN 5-2   74 SD 9-4   124 LAN 10-8
25 SD 5-1   75 SD 10-1   125 SD 13-2
26 SD 4-0   76 SD 9-0   126 SD 12-5
27 SD 6-2   77 LAN 9-2   127 SD 12-0
28 SD 6-3   78 SD 10-2   128 SD 13-1
29 LAN 5-1   79 LAN 9-3   129 LAN 10-9
30 LAN 3-0   80 LAN 8-7   130 LAN 12-1
31 LAN 6-4   81 SD 10-3   131 LAN 11-7
32 LAN 6-3   82 LAN 9-4   132 LAN 11-6
33 LAN 6-5   83 LAN 9-5   133 LAN 11-0
34 LAN 6-2   84 LAN 9-1   134 SD 12-6
35 SD 6-1   85 LAN 8-0   135 SD 10-8
36 SD 6-4   86 SD 9-5   136 SD 11-6
37 SD 5-0   87 SD 9-8   137 SD 13-3
38 LAN 4-0   88 LAN 9-6   138 LAN 12-2
39 SD 7-6   89 LAN 10-2   139 LAN 12-4
40 LAN 6-1   90 LAN 10-3   140 SD 13-5
41 SD 7-2   91 SD 9-6   141 LAN 12-6
42 SD 6-0   92 SD 10-4   142 LAN 13-2
43 SD 7-4   93 SD 11-3   143 SD 13-4
44 SD 7-3   94 LAN 10-1   144 SD 13-0
45 LAN 7-2   95 SD 9-7   145 LAN 12-5
46 LAN 7-4   96 LAN 10-4   146 LAN 13-3
47 LAN 7-3   97 LAN 9-7   147 LAN 13-4
48 LAN 5-0   98 SD 10-0   148 LAN 13-1
49 SD 7-1   99 SD 11-2   149 SD 14-1
50 LAN 7-5   100 LAN 9-0   150 SD 14-3

 

Contest Rules:  Guess "over" or "under" on the five questions below.  You must also give confidence points to each guess.  The guess you have the most confidence in you give 5 points, then 4 points ... down to 1 point for the guess you have the least amount of confidence in.  So you must have a guess of 5,4,3,2,1.  If you get a guess correct you get the number of confidence points you wagered on that guess.  A perfect score would be 5+4+3+2+1=15 points.  The person with the most points for the day wins the number of confidence points they guessed correctly.  If there is a tie then the points are split evenly (rounded up) between all the winners.  Points will be kept track of on a monthly basis then reset (with possibly a different contest type) at the end of the month.  You can also win bonus points for correctly guessing the final score from the list of scores in the large table above.  The nightly winner will be the person(s) with the most over/under points.  If you guess the score correctly you get a bonus of whatever number the final score is in the table.  Nobody has to guess the final score correctly to win points.  The starting pitchers listed in my table must be the actual starters otherwise only the game score portion of the contest is valid.

Leaderboard:

1. BFDC 27
2. Hollywood Joe 26
3. Xeifrank 22
4. Riffraffselbow 15
5. keithc13 14
6. matthewmafa 12
7. StolenMonkey86 3

 

Over/Under Questions:

A. Dodgers total runs scored: 3.5
B. John Ely strikeouts minus walks: 1.5
C. Aaron Harang total pitches: 96.5
D. Dodgers starting first baseman RBIs: 0.5
E. Dodgers number of relief pitchers used: 3.5

Sample Answer: 2AU 3BO, 5CO, 4DU, 1EU, #21 LAN 5-3

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