FanPost

April 14th, Cardinals vs Dodgers Simulation + Contest

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Cardinals and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.   Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Thursday at 12:01 AM)

Vis Pitcher Home Pitcher Vegas Favorite Vegas Win% Vegas O/U Sim Fave Win% Sim O/U
Jaime Garcia Huroki Kuroda LAN 55.16% 6.5 45.35% 6.91

 

1 LAN 3-2   51 STL 8-3   101 LAN 9-6
2 LAN 2-1   52 STL 7-5   102 STL 10-6
3 STL 2-1   53 LAN 7-3   103 STL 12-2
4 STL 3-2   54 STL 8-0   104 LAN 9-0
5 LAN 4-3   55 LAN 6-0   105 LAN 10-4
6 STL 3-1   56 LAN 7-4   106 STL 12-0
7 LAN 1-0   57 LAN 7-5   107 LAN 10-1
8 STL 4-3   58 STL 7-6   108 LAN 9-7
9 STL 4-2   59 LAN 7-1   109 STL 12-3
10 LAN 3-1   60 STL 8-4   110 STL 12-4
11 STL 1-0   61 STL 9-2   111 STL 11-5
12 STL 2-0   62 STL 9-1   112 STL 9-8
13 LAN 5-4   63 STL 9-3   113 STL 10-7
14 STL 4-1   64 STL 8-5   114 LAN 11-3
15 LAN 4-2   65 LAN 8-2   115 LAN 11-2
16 STL 3-0   66 STL 9-0   116 LAN 10-5
17 LAN 2-0   67 STL 9-4   117 LAN 10-0
18 STL 5-3   68 LAN 8-7   118 STL 10-8
19 LAN 4-1   69 LAN 8-3   119 STL 13-2
20 STL 5-4   70 LAN 7-0   120 LAN 11-4
21 STL 5-2   71 STL 10-2   121 LAN 10-6
22 STL 5-1   72 STL 8-6   122 LAN 10-9
23 STL 4-0   73 LAN 8-1   123 STL 11-6
24 LAN 5-3   74 LAN 8-4   124 LAN 11-1
25 LAN 3-0   75 STL 10-1   125 STL 13-1
26 LAN 5-2   76 STL 10-0   126 STL 13-3
27 STL 5-0   77 LAN 8-6   127 STL 12-5
28 STL 6-2   78 LAN 8-5   128 LAN 10-8
29 STL 6-1   79 STL 8-7   129 LAN 12-2
30 LAN 6-5   80 LAN 9-2   130 STL 10-9
31 STL 6-3   81 STL 10-3   131 LAN 10-7
32 STL 6-4   82 STL 9-5   132 STL 11-7
33 LAN 4-0   83 STL 10-4   133 STL 13-5
34 LAN 5-1   84 LAN 9-3   134 LAN 12-1
35 STL 6-0   85 LAN 9-1   135 STL 13-0
36 STL 7-2   86 STL 11-2   136 LAN 11-0
37 LAN 6-3   87 STL 9-6   137 STL 13-4
38 STL 6-5   88 LAN 8-0   138 LAN 11-6
39 STL 7-1   89 STL 11-1   139 LAN 12-3
40 LAN 6-4   90 LAN 9-4   140 LAN 11-5
41 STL 7-3   91 STL 11-0   141 LAN 12-6
42 LAN 6-2   92 STL 9-7   142 LAN 12-0
43 LAN 6-1   93 STL 11-3   143 STL 14-2
44 LAN 5-0   94 STL 10-5   144 STL 15-1
45 STL 7-4   95 STL 11-4   145 STL 11-8
46 STL 8-1   96 LAN 9-5   146 STL 14-1
47 STL 8-2   97 LAN 9-8   147 STL 14-3
48 STL 7-0   98 LAN 10-3   148 STL 14-4
49 LAN 7-6   99 LAN 10-2   149 LAN 13-2
50 LAN 7-2   100 STL 12-1   150 STL 12-6

 

Contest Rules:  Guess "over" or "under" on the five questions below.  You must also give confidence points to each guess.  The guess you have the most confidence in you give 5 points, then 4 points ... down to 1 point for the guess you have the least amount of confidence in.  So you must have a guess of 5,4,3,2,1.  If you get a guess correct you get the number of confidence points you wagered on that guess.  A perfect score would be 5+4+3+2+1=15 points.  The person with the most points for the day wins the number of confidence points they guessed correctly.  If there is a tie then the following tie-breaker will be used (1. Guessing the correct team to win, 2. Closest to the score ranking in the table, 3. Person who submits their pick first).  Over/Under points will not be shared.  Points will be kept track of on a monthly basis then reset (with possibly a different contest type) at the end of the month.  You can also win bonus points for correctly guessing the final score from the list of scores in the large table above.  The nightly winner will be the person(s) with the most over/under points.  If you guess the score correctly you get a bonus of whatever number the final score is in the table.  Nobody has to guess the final score correctly to win points.  The starting pitchers listed in my table must be the actual starters otherwise only the game score portion of the contest is valid.

Leaderboard:

1. keithc13 62
2. BFDC 38
3. Riffraffselbow 27
4. Hollywood Joe 26
5. Xeifrank 25
6. matthewmafa 12
7. Michael White 8
8t. StolenMonkey86 3
8t. nolander 3

 

Over/Under Questions:

A. Total runs scored in game: 6.5
B. Jaime Garcia strikeouts minus Hiroki Kuroda strikeouts: 0.5
C. Johnathan Broxton pitch count: 6.5
D. Pujols + Holliday + Berkman total bases: 5.5
E. Dodgers starting outfielders total RBIs: 1.5

Sample Answer: 2AU 3BO, 5CO, 4DU, 1EU, #21 LAN 5-3



Link to today's spreadsheet (via Google Docs)
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