FanPost

April 2nd, Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Giants and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.   Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Saturday at 12:01 AM)

Vis Pitcher Home Pitcher Vegas Favorite Vegas Win% Vegas O/U Sim Fave Win% Sim O/U
Matteus Cain Ted Lilly SF 50.50% 6.8 51.13% 7.11

 

1 LAN 3-2   51 LAN 7-3   101 LAN 10-4
2 LAN 2-1   52 SF 8-1   102 SF 11-4
3 LAN 4-3   53 SF 8-3   103 LAN 11-3
4 SF 3-2   54 LAN 7-1   104 SF 9-8
5 SF 2-1   55 SF 7-6   105 SF 10-6
6 SF 4-3   56 LAN 7-5   106 LAN 9-7
7 SF 3-1   57 SF 7-0   107 LAN 11-2
8 SF 4-2   58 LAN 6-0   108 SF 11-5
9 LAN 3-1   59 LAN 8-2   109 SF 12-3
10 LAN 5-4   60 SF 8-4   110 LAN 10-0
11 LAN 4-2   61 LAN 8-3   111 SF 11-0
12 LAN 1-0   62 SF 8-5   112 LAN 11-1
13 SF 4-1   63 SF 9-2   113 SF 12-2
14 SF 5-3   64 SF 9-1   114 LAN 10-5
15 SF 5-4   65 SF 8-0   115 LAN 10-9
16 LAN 4-1   66 LAN 8-4   116 SF 10-7
17 SF 5-2   67 LAN 8-1   117 LAN 12-1
18 SF 2-0   68 LAN 7-0   118 SF 12-1
19 LAN 2-0   69 LAN 8-7   119 LAN 10-6
20 SF 1-0   70 SF 9-3   120 LAN 10-7
21 LAN 5-3   71 SF 8-6   121 SF 12-4
22 SF 3-0   72 SF 9-4   122 LAN 11-5
23 LAN 5-2   73 LAN 8-5   123 LAN 12-2
24 SF 5-1   74 LAN 9-3   124 SF 11-6
25 LAN 3-0   75 LAN 9-2   125 LAN 11-4
26 LAN 6-5   76 LAN 8-6   126 LAN 12-3
27 SF 4-0   77 LAN 9-1   127 SF 13-3
28 SF 6-3   78 SF 8-7   128 SF 12-0
29 LAN 5-1   79 SF 9-0   129 SF 10-8
30 SF 6-2   80 SF 10-2   130 SF 13-2
31 SF 6-4   81 SF 10-3   131 SF 10-9
32 SF 6-1   82 LAN 9-4   132 SF 12-5
33 LAN 6-3   83 SF 9-5   133 LAN 12-4
34 LAN 6-2   84 SF 10-4   134 LAN 11-0
35 SF 6-5   85 LAN 8-0   135 LAN 10-8
36 SF 5-0   86 SF 10-1   136 LAN 11-6
37 LAN 4-0   87 SF 9-6   137 LAN 12-6
38 LAN 6-4   88 LAN 9-5   138 LAN 12-5
39 SF 7-2   89 LAN 9-6   139 SF 11-7
40 SF 7-3   90 LAN 9-8   140 SF 13-4
41 LAN 6-1   91 SF 11-2   141 SF 13-1
42 SF 7-1   92 SF 11-3   142 SF 13-0
43 LAN 5-0   93 LAN 10-2   143 SF 13-5
44 LAN 7-6   94 SF 10-5   144 LAN 13-3
45 SF 6-0   95 SF 10-0   145 LAN 11-8
46 SF 7-4   96 LAN 10-1   146 LAN 13-2
47 SF 7-5   97 LAN 10-3   147 SF 12-7
48 LAN 7-2   98 SF 9-7   148 LAN 12-0
49 SF 8-2   99 SF 11-1   149 SF 12-6
50 LAN 7-4   100 LAN 9-0   150 SF 14-4

 

Contest Rules:  Guess "over" or "under" on the five questions below.  You must also give confidence points to each guess.  The guess you have the most confidence in you give 5 points, then 4 points ... down to 1 point for the guess you have the least amount of confidence in.  So you must have a guess of 5,4,3,2,1.  If you get a guess correct you get the number of confidence points you wagered on that guess.  A perfect score would be 5+4+3+2+1=15 points.  The person with the most points for the day wins the number of confidence points they guessed correctly.  If there is a tie then the points are split evenly (rounded up) between all the winners.  Points will be kept track of on a monthly basis then reset (with possibly a different contest type) at the end of the month.  You can also win bonus points for correctly guessing the final score from the list of scores in the large table above.  The nightly winner will be the person(s) with the most over/under points.  If you guess the score correctly you get a bonus of whatever number the final score is in the table.  Nobody has to guess the final score correctly to win points.  The starting pitchers listed in my table must be the actual starters otherwise only the game score portion of the contest is valid.

Leaderboard:

1. keithc13   14
2. BFDC   12
3. StolenMonkey86   3

 

Over/Under Questions:

A. Total runs scored both teams: 6.5
B. Ted Lilly hits allowed: 6.5
C. Matt Cain strikeouts minus walks: 3.5
D. Dodgers starting outfield total bases: 4.5
E. Dodgers runs scored minus Giants runs scored: 0.5

Sample Answer: 2AU 3BO, 5CO, 4DU, 1EU, #21 LAN 5-3

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