FanPost

April 21st, Braves vs Dodgers Simulation + Contest

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Braves and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.   Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Thursday at 12:01 AM)

Vis Pitcher Home Pitcher Vegas Favorite Vegas Win% Vegas O/U Sim Fave Win% Sim O/U
Jair Jurrjens Clayton Kershaw LAN 56.33% 6.7 58.87% 7.07

 

1 LAN 3-2   51 ATL 7-2   101 LAN 11-0
2 LAN 2-1   52 LAN 8-2   102 ATL 10-5
3 LAN 4-3   53 ATL 7-5   103 LAN 9-7
4 ATL 3-2   54 LAN 8-3   104 LAN 10-5
5 ATL 2-1   55 ATL 7-6   105 LAN 12-2
6 LAN 3-1   56 LAN 7-5   106 LAN 11-4
7 LAN 1-0   57 LAN 8-0   107 ATL 11-2
8 ATL 4-3   58 ATL 7-1   108 LAN 12-1
9 LAN 4-2   59 ATL 8-3   109 ATL 9-8
10 LAN 4-1   60 ATL 6-0   110 ATL 11-4
11 LAN 2-0   61 LAN 8-4   111 ATL 11-5
12 LAN 5-4   62 ATL 8-2   112 ATL 11-1
13 ATL 3-1   63 LAN 9-2   113 ATL 11-3
14 ATL 4-2   64 LAN 9-1   114 ATL 10-6
15 LAN 3-0   65 LAN 9-3   115 ATL 10-0
16 ATL 1-0   66 ATL 8-4   116 LAN 12-3
17 LAN 5-2   67 ATL 8-1   117 LAN 12-0
18 LAN 5-1   68 ATL 8-5   118 LAN 12-4
19 LAN 4-0   69 LAN 8-7   119 LAN 10-6
20 LAN 5-3   70 LAN 8-5   120 LAN 11-5
21 ATL 5-4   71 LAN 9-0   121 ATL 10-7
22 ATL 4-1   72 ATL 7-0   122 ATL 12-2
23 ATL 2-0   73 ATL 8-6   123 ATL 12-3
24 ATL 5-3   74 ATL 9-3   124 LAN 10-9
25 ATL 5-2   75 ATL 9-2   125 ATL 12-4
26 LAN 5-0   76 LAN 10-1   126 LAN 13-1
27 LAN 6-5   77 LAN 9-4   127 LAN 10-7
28 LAN 6-1   78 LAN 10-2   128 LAN 13-2
29 LAN 6-2   79 LAN 8-6   129 ATL 12-1
30 ATL 3-0   80 ATL 8-7   130 ATL 11-6
31 LAN 6-3   81 LAN 10-0   131 ATL 11-0
32 LAN 6-0   82 ATL 9-4   132 ATL 10-8
33 ATL 5-1   83 LAN 9-5   133 LAN 13-0
34 ATL 6-3   84 ATL 8-0   134 LAN 13-3
35 LAN 6-4   85 LAN 10-3   135 LAN 11-6
36 ATL 6-4   86 ATL 9-1   136 LAN 13-5
37 ATL 6-2   87 ATL 9-5   137 ATL 11-7
38 LAN 7-1   88 ATL 10-3   138 LAN 13-4
39 ATL 6-5   89 LAN 11-2   139 LAN 12-5
40 LAN 7-2   90 ATL 10-2   140 ATL 13-3
41 ATL 4-0   91 ATL 9-6   141 ATL 12-5
42 LAN 7-3   92 ATL 10-1   142 ATL 11-8
43 ATL 6-1   93 LAN 11-1   143 LAN 14-2
44 LAN 7-0   94 LAN 10-4   144 LAN 11-7
45 LAN 7-6   95 ATL 10-4   145 LAN 10-8
46 ATL 5-0   96 LAN 9-8   146 LAN 12-6
47 ATL 7-4   97 LAN 11-3   147 ATL 13-1
48 ATL 7-3   98 LAN 9-6   148 ATL 13-2
49 LAN 7-4   99 ATL 9-7   149 ATL 12-6
50 LAN 8-1   100 ATL 9-0   150 ATL 10-9

 

Contest Rules:  Guess "over" or "under" on the five questions below.  You must also give confidence points to each guess.  The guess you have the most confidence in you give 5 points, then 4 points ... down to 1 point for the guess you have the least amount of confidence in.  So you must have a guess of 5,4,3,2,1.  If you get a guess correct you get the number of confidence points you wagered on that guess.  A perfect score would be 5+4+3+2+1=15 points.  The person with the most points for the day wins the number of confidence points they guessed correctly.  If there is a tie then the following tie-breaker will be used (1. Guessing the correct team to win, 2. Closest to the score ranking in the table, 3. Person who submits their pick first).  Over/Under points will not be shared.  Points will be kept track of on a monthly basis then reset (with possibly a different contest type) at the end of the month.  You can also win bonus points for correctly guessing the final score from the list of scores in the large table above.  The nightly winner will be the person(s) with the most over/under points.  If you guess the score correctly you get a bonus of whatever number the final score is in the table.  Nobody has to guess the final score correctly to win points.  If any player listed in an over/under question does not play then that question gets thrown out of the contest and fined $100.

Leaderboard:

1. keithc13   95
2. BFDC 51
3. Riffraffselbow 41
4. MammothDodger 29
5. Hollywood Joe 26
6. Xeifrank 25
7. matthewmafa 12
8. kinbote 11
9. Michael White 8
10t. StolenMonkey86 3
10t. nolander 3

 

Over/Under Questions:

A. Total runs in game: 6.5
B. Clayton Kershaw strikeouts: 7.5
C. Clayton Kershaw total pitches: 102,5
D. Clayton Kershaw game ERA: 2.787
E. Dodgers runs minus Braves runs: 1.5

Sample Answer: 2AU 3BO, 5CO, 4DU, 1EU, #21 LAN 5-3


Spreadsheet link via Google Docs to contest picks and results.

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