FanPost

April 22nd, Dodgers vs Cubs Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Braves and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.   Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Thursday at 12:01 AM)

Vis Pitcher Home Pitcher Vegas Favorite Vegas Win% Vegas O/U Sim Fave Win% Sim O/U
Chad Billingsley Casey Coleman LAN 50.74% 7.8 50.91% 8.41

 

1 CHN 3-2   51 CHN 4-0   101 CHN 8-0
2 CHN 4-3   52 LAN 8-1   102 LAN 11-4
3 CHN 2-1   53 LAN 8-4   103 CHN 10-4
4 CHN 5-4   54 LAN 8-3   104 CHN 10-5
5 LAN 3-2   55 CHN 8-7   105 CHN 10-1
6 LAN 4-3   56 CHN 7-2   106 CHN 10-9
7 LAN 4-2   57 LAN 7-0   107 LAN 11-5
8 LAN 2-1   58 LAN 9-2   108 CHN 10-6
9 CHN 4-2   59 LAN 8-5   109 LAN 10-7
10 LAN 3-1   60 CHN 5-0   110 CHN 11-4
11 CHN 6-5   61 LAN 8-6   111 CHN 11-2
12 CHN 3-1   62 CHN 8-3   112 LAN 12-2
13 LAN 5-3   63 CHN 8-4   113 LAN 12-3
14 LAN 5-4   64 CHN 7-1   114 CHN 11-3
15 LAN 4-1   65 LAN 9-3   115 LAN 11-6
16 CHN 5-3   66 CHN 8-5   116 LAN 12-4
17 LAN 5-2   67 CHN 8-2   117 LAN 12-1
18 CHN 1-0   68 LAN 8-0   118 CHN 9-0
19 CHN 5-2   69 LAN 9-1   119 LAN 11-0
20 CHN 4-1   70 CHN 8-6   120 CHN 10-8
21 LAN 5-1   71 LAN 9-4   121 CHN 10-7
22 LAN 6-3   72 LAN 8-7   122 LAN 10-8
23 CHN 6-3   73 CHN 6-0   123 CHN 11-1
24 LAN 6-2   74 LAN 9-5   124 CHN 11-5
25 LAN 6-4   75 CHN 9-2   125 LAN 13-2
26 LAN 3-0   76 CHN 9-3   126 LAN 12-5
27 LAN 6-5   77 CHN 8-1   127 LAN 10-9
28 CHN 7-6   78 LAN 10-3   128 CHN 12-2
29 LAN 2-0   79 LAN 10-2   129 CHN 10-0
30 CHN 6-4   80 CHN 9-8   130 LAN 11-7
31 CHN 2-0   81 LAN 9-0   131 CHN 12-3
32 LAN 4-0   82 LAN 10-1   132 LAN 12-6
33 LAN 6-1   83 CHN 9-6   133 LAN 12-0
34 LAN 1-0   84 LAN 10-4   134 CHN 12-4
35 CHN 6-2   85 LAN 9-6   135 CHN 11-10
36 LAN 7-3   86 CHN 9-4   136 CHN 11-6
37 CHN 5-1   87 CHN 9-1   137 CHN 12-5
38 LAN 7-2   88 CHN 9-5   138 LAN 13-1
39 LAN 7-4   89 CHN 7-0   139 LAN 13-3
40 LAN 5-0   90 CHN 10-3   140 LAN 11-8
41 CHN 3-0   91 LAN 10-5   141 LAN 13-4
42 LAN 7-1   92 LAN 9-7   142 CHN 11-7
43 CHN 7-4   93 LAN 9-8   143 CHN 12-1
44 LAN 7-5   94 LAN 10-0   144 CHN 13-4
45 LAN 6-0   95 LAN 11-3   145 CHN 12-6
46 CHN 7-5   96 LAN 11-2   146 LAN 13-0
47 CHN 7-3   97 CHN 10-2   147 CHN 13-2
48 LAN 7-6   98 LAN 10-6   148 CHN 13-3
49 LAN 8-2   99 CHN 9-7   149 CHN 11-0
50 CHN 6-1   100 LAN 11-1   150 LAN 12-7

 

Contest Rules:  Guess "over" or "under" on the five questions below.  You must also give confidence points to each guess.  The guess you have the most confidence in you give 5 points, then 4 points ... down to 1 point for the guess you have the least amount of confidence in.  So you must have a guess of 5,4,3,2,1.  If you get a guess correct you get the number of confidence points you wagered on that guess.  A perfect score would be 5+4+3+2+1=15 points.  The person with the most points for the day wins the number of confidence points they guessed correctly.  If there is a tie then the following tie-breaker will be used (1. Guessing the correct team to win, 2. Closest to the score ranking in the table, 3. Person who submits their pick first).  Over/Under points will not be shared.  Points will be kept track of on a monthly basis then reset (with possibly a different contest type) at the end of the month.  You can also win bonus points for correctly guessing the final score from the list of scores in the large table above.  The nightly winner will be the person(s) with the most over/under points.  If you guess the score correctly you get a bonus of whatever number the final score is in the table.  Nobody has to guess the final score correctly to win points.  If any player listed in an over/under question does not play then that question gets thrown out of the contest and fined $100.

Leaderboard:

1. keithc13   95
2. BFDC 51
3. Riffraffselbow 41
4. MammothDodger 29
5. Hollywood Joe 26
6. Xeifrank 25
7. Michael White 23
8. David Young 20
9. matthewmafa 12
10. kinbote 11
11t. StolenMonkey86 3
11t. nolander 3

 

Over/Under Questions:

A. Total runs in game: 7.5
B. Chad Billingsley strikeouts: 6.5
C. Dodgers total hits in game: 8.5
D. Jerry Sands total bases: 1.5
E. Casey Coleman total pitches: 93.5

Sample Answer: 2AU 3BO, 5CO, 4DU, 1EU, #21 LAN 5-3


Spreadsheet link via Google Docs to contest picks and results.

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