FanPost

April 26th, Dodgers vs Marlins Simulation + Contest

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Marlins using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.   Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Monday at 10:41 PM)

Vis Pitcher Home Pitcher Vegas Favorite Vegas Win% Vegas O/U Sim Fave Win% Sim O/U
Clayton Kershaw Chris Volstad LAN 57.08% 7.5 51.13% 8.35

 

1 FLA 3-2   51 LAN 8-3   101 LAN 11-4
2 FLA 4-3   52 FLA 4-0   102 LAN 10-6
3 FLA 2-1   53 FLA 8-7   103 FLA 10-5
4 FLA 5-4   54 LAN 8-2   104 LAN 10-7
5 LAN 3-2   55 LAN 8-4   105 FLA 10-1
6 LAN 4-3   56 FLA 7-1   106 LAN 11-5
7 LAN 4-2   57 FLA 5-0   107 FLA 11-4
8 LAN 2-1   58 LAN 8-1   108 FLA 10-9
9 LAN 3-1   59 LAN 7-0   109 FLA 11-3
10 FLA 6-5   60 FLA 8-2   110 FLA 11-2
11 LAN 5-4   61 FLA 8-3   111 FLA 10-6
12 FLA 4-2   62 FLA 8-4   112 FLA 9-0
13 FLA 3-1   63 LAN 8-5   113 LAN 11-1
14 LAN 5-3   64 LAN 9-2   114 LAN 12-4
15 LAN 4-1   65 LAN 8-6   115 FLA 11-5
16 LAN 5-2   66 FLA 8-5   116 LAN 12-2
17 FLA 5-3   67 LAN 9-3   117 LAN 12-3
18 FLA 1-0   68 LAN 9-4   118 LAN 11-0
19 FLA 4-1   69 LAN 8-7   119 LAN 11-6
20 FLA 5-2   70 LAN 9-1   120 FLA 11-1
21 LAN 5-1   71 FLA 6-0   121 FLA 10-7
22 LAN 6-3   72 LAN 8-0   122 FLA 10-8
23 LAN 3-0   73 FLA 8-6   123 LAN 12-1
24 LAN 6-5   74 FLA 9-3   124 LAN 10-8
25 LAN 6-4   75 FLA 8-1   125 FLA 11-6
26 LAN 6-2   76 FLA 9-2   126 LAN 11-7
27 LAN 2-0   77 LAN 9-5   127 FLA 10-0
28 FLA 6-4   78 FLA 9-8   128 LAN 13-2
29 FLA 7-6   79 LAN 9-6   129 FLA 12-5
30 FLA 6-3   80 FLA 7-0   130 LAN 10-9
31 LAN 1-0   81 LAN 10-3   131 LAN 12-5
32 FLA 5-1   82 FLA 9-5   132 FLA 12-4
33 LAN 4-0   83 LAN 10-2   133 FLA 12-2
34 FLA 2-0   84 LAN 9-0   134 LAN 13-3
35 LAN 6-1   85 FLA 9-4   135 FLA 12-3
36 FLA 6-2   86 LAN 10-1   136 FLA 11-10
37 LAN 5-0   87 LAN 10-4   137 LAN 11-8
38 LAN 7-2   88 FLA 9-1   138 LAN 12-0
39 FLA 3-0   89 FLA 9-6   139 FLA 12-1
40 LAN 7-3   90 LAN 9-7   140 FLA 11-7
41 LAN 7-4   91 FLA 10-2   141 FLA 12-6
42 LAN 7-1   92 LAN 10-5   142 FLA 11-0
43 LAN 7-5   93 FLA 8-0   143 LAN 13-1
44 FLA 6-1   94 LAN 11-3   144 LAN 13-4
45 FLA 7-4   95 FLA 10-3   145 LAN 12-6
46 FLA 7-5   96 FLA 9-7   146 LAN 12-7
47 FLA 7-3   97 FLA 10-4   147 FLA 13-4
48 LAN 7-6   98 LAN 9-8   148 FLA 13-2
49 FLA 7-2   99 LAN 11-2   149 LAN 11-9
50 LAN 6-0   100 LAN 10-0   150 FLA 11-8

 

Contest Rules:  Guess "over" or "under" on the five questions below.  You must also give confidence points to each guess.  The guess you have the most confidence in you give 5 points, then 4 points ... down to 1 point for the guess you have the least amount of confidence in.  So you must have a guess of 5,4,3,2,1.  If you get a guess correct you get the number of confidence points you wagered on that guess.  A perfect score would be 5+4+3+2+1=15 points.  The person with the most points for the day wins the number of confidence points they guessed correctly.  If there is a tie then the following tie-breaker will be used (1. Guessing the correct team to win, 2. Closest to the score ranking in the table, 3. Person who submits their pick first).  Over/Under points will not be shared.  Points will be kept track of on a monthly basis then reset (with possibly a different contest type) at the end of the month.  You can also win bonus points for correctly guessing the final score from the list of scores in the large table above.  The nightly winner will be the person(s) with the most over/under points.  If you guess the score correctly you get a bonus of whatever number the final score is in the table.  Nobody has to guess the final score correctly to win points.  If any player listed in an over/under question does not play then that question gets thrown out of the contest and fined $100.

Leaderboard:

1. keithc13   95
2. Riffraffselbow 52
3. BFDC 51
4. Xeifrank 47
5. MammothDodger 29
6. Hollywood Joe 26
7. Michael White 23
8. David Young 20
9. LA Taco 15
10. matthewmafa 12
11. kinbote 11
12t. StolenMonkey86 3
12t. nolander 3

 

Over/Under Questions:

A. Total runs in game: 7.5
B. Clayton Kershaw strikeouts: 6.5
C. Andre Ethier hits plus walks: 1.5
D. Kershaw pitch count minus Volstad pitch count: 6.5
E. Dodgers runs minus Marlins runs: 1.5

Sample Answer: 2AU 3BO, 5CO, 4DU, 1EU, #21 LAN 5-3


Contest Results/Picks Via Google Docs

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