FanPost

April 27th, Dodgers vs Marlins Simulation Contest

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Marlins using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.   Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Wednesday at 12:03 AM)

Vis Pitcher Home Pitcher Vegas Favorite Vegas Win% Vegas O/U Sim Fave Win% Sim O/U
Chad Billingsley Anibal Sanchez FLA 53.92% 7.6 57.76% 7.26

 

1 FLA 3-2   51 FLA 7-0   101 FLA 9-7
2 FLA 2-1   52 LAN 7-4   102 FLA 11-1
3 FLA 4-3   53 FLA 8-1   103 LAN 9-7
4 LAN 2-1   54 FLA 8-2   104 LAN 9-8
5 LAN 3-2   55 FLA 7-5   105 LAN 11-2
6 FLA 1-0   56 LAN 7-5   106 FLA 12-1
7 FLA 5-4   57 LAN 7-6   107 LAN 10-6
8 FLA 3-1   58 FLA 8-3   108 FLA 11-0
9 FLA 4-2   59 FLA 8-0   109 FLA 11-4
10 LAN 4-3   60 LAN 8-2   110 LAN 11-3
11 LAN 3-1   61 FLA 8-7   111 FLA 12-3
12 FLA 2-0   62 LAN 8-3   112 FLA 11-5
13 LAN 4-2   63 LAN 8-1   113 LAN 11-1
14 FLA 4-1   64 FLA 8-4   114 LAN 10-0
15 FLA 3-0   65 LAN 7-0   115 LAN 11-4
16 LAN 1-0   66 FLA 9-1   116 FLA 10-6
17 FLA 5-2   67 FLA 9-2   117 FLA 10-9
18 FLA 5-3   68 FLA 8-5   118 FLA 12-2
19 LAN 4-1   69 LAN 8-4   119 FLA 12-4
20 LAN 2-0   70 FLA 9-3   120 FLA 10-7
21 FLA 6-5   71 LAN 8-5   121 FLA 12-0
22 LAN 5-3   72 FLA 9-0   122 LAN 10-7
23 LAN 5-4   73 LAN 9-3   123 LAN 11-5
24 FLA 5-1   74 LAN 9-2   124 LAN 12-1
25 FLA 4-0   75 LAN 8-6   125 FLA 13-2
26 LAN 5-2   76 FLA 10-1   126 FLA 12-5
27 LAN 3-0   77 FLA 8-6   127 LAN 11-0
28 LAN 5-1   78 FLA 9-4   128 LAN 12-4
29 FLA 6-2   79 LAN 9-1   129 LAN 12-3
30 FLA 6-3   80 LAN 8-7   130 LAN 11-6
31 FLA 6-1   81 LAN 8-0   131 FLA 10-8
32 FLA 5-0   82 FLA 10-2   132 LAN 10-8
33 LAN 4-0   83 LAN 9-4   133 FLA 11-6
34 FLA 6-4   84 FLA 10-3   134 LAN 12-2
35 LAN 6-3   85 LAN 9-5   135 FLA 13-1
36 LAN 6-2   86 FLA 10-0   136 FLA 13-3
37 LAN 6-4   87 FLA 9-8   137 FLA 13-4
38 LAN 6-5   88 FLA 9-5   138 LAN 12-5
39 FLA 6-0   89 LAN 10-2   139 FLA 11-7
40 FLA 7-2   90 FLA 11-2   140 FLA 13-0
41 FLA 7-6   91 FLA 10-4   141 LAN 10-9
42 LAN 6-1   92 LAN 9-0   142 LAN 11-8
43 FLA 7-1   93 LAN 10-3   143 LAN 11-7
44 LAN 5-0   94 LAN 10-1   144 LAN 12-6
45 FLA 7-3   95 FLA 9-6   145 LAN 13-3
46 LAN 7-3   96 FLA 11-3   146 FLA 14-1
47 LAN 7-2   97 LAN 9-6   147 FLA 11-8
48 FLA 7-4   98 LAN 10-4   148 LAN 13-4
49 LAN 7-1   99 FLA 10-5   149 LAN 12-7
50 LAN 6-0   100 LAN 10-5   150 FLA 14-2

 

Contest Rules:  Guess "over" or "under" on the five questions below.  You must also give confidence points to each guess.  The guess you have the most confidence in you give 5 points, then 4 points ... down to 1 point for the guess you have the least amount of confidence in.  So you must have a guess of 5,4,3,2,1.  If you get a guess correct you get the number of confidence points you wagered on that guess.  A perfect score would be 5+4+3+2+1=15 points.  The person with the most points for the day wins the number of confidence points they guessed correctly.  If there is a tie then the following tie-breaker will be used (1. Guessing the correct team to win, 2. Closest to the score ranking in the table, 3. Person who submits their pick first).  Over/Under points will not be shared.  Points will be kept track of on a monthly basis then reset (with possibly a different contest type) at the end of the month.  You can also win bonus points for correctly guessing the final score from the list of scores in the large table above.  The nightly winner will be the person(s) with the most over/under points.  If you guess the score correctly you get a bonus of whatever number the final score is in the table.  Nobody has to guess the final score correctly to win points.  If any player listed in an over/under question does not play then that question gets thrown out of the contest and fined $100.

Leaderboard:

1. keithc13   95
2. Riffraffselbow 52
3. BFDC 51
4. Xeifrank 47
5. Michael White 34
6. MammothDodger 29
7. Hollywood Joe 26
8. David Young 20
9. LA Taco 15
10. matthewmafa 12
11. kinbote 11
12t. StolenMonkey86 3
12t. nolander 3

 

Over/Under Questions:

A. Total runs in game: 7.5
B. Chad Billingsley total pitches: 100.5
C. Andre Ethier total bases: 1.5
D. Anibal Sanchez strikeouts minus walks: 4.5
E. Marlins runs minus Dodgers runs: 0.5

Sample Answer: 2AU 3BO, 5CO, 4DU, 1EU, #21 LAN 5-3


Contest Results/Picks Via Google Docs

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