FanPost

April 29th, Padres vs Dodgers Simulation + Contest

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Padres and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.   Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Thursday at 11:15 PM)

Vis Pitcher Home Pitcher Vegas Favorite Vegas Win% Vegas O/U Sim Fave Win% Sim O/U
Clayton Richard Ted Lilly LAN 54.34 6.6 46.00% 6.90

 

1 LAN 3-2   51 SD 8-3   101 SD 11-0
2 LAN 2-1   52 SD 7-5   102 LAN 9-6
3 SD 2-1   53 SD 8-1   103 LAN 10-4
4 SD 3-2   54 LAN 7-1   104 LAN 9-7
5 LAN 4-3   55 LAN 6-0   105 LAN 10-1
6 SD 3-1   56 LAN 7-4   106 SD 12-2
7 SD 4-3   57 LAN 7-5   107 SD 12-1
8 SD 4-2   58 SD 8-4   108 LAN 11-2
9 LAN 3-1   59 SD 7-6   109 SD 9-8
10 SD 4-1   60 SD 8-0   110 LAN 11-3
11 LAN 5-4   61 SD 9-2   111 SD 11-5
12 LAN 1-0   62 LAN 8-2   112 LAN 10-5
13 LAN 4-2   63 SD 8-5   113 LAN 10-0
14 SD 1-0   64 SD 9-1   114 LAN 10-6
15 SD 2-0   65 LAN 7-0   115 SD 10-7
16 SD 5-2   66 LAN 8-3   116 SD 12-4
17 SD 5-3   67 SD 9-3   117 SD 11-6
18 SD 3-0   68 LAN 8-1   118 SD 10-8
19 SD 5-4   69 LAN 8-7   119 LAN 11-4
20 LAN 4-1   70 LAN 8-4   120 SD 13-2
21 LAN 2-0   71 SD 8-6   121 LAN 11-1
22 SD 5-1   72 SD 9-0   122 SD 12-3
23 SD 4-0   73 SD 9-4   123 SD 12-0
24 LAN 5-3   74 LAN 8-5   124 SD 13-1
25 LAN 5-2   75 SD 10-1   125 LAN 10-7
26 LAN 3-0   76 SD 9-5   126 LAN 11-5
27 SD 6-2   77 LAN 9-2   127 LAN 12-1
28 LAN 6-5   78 SD 10-2   128 SD 12-5
29 SD 6-3   79 SD 8-7   129 LAN 11-0
30 LAN 5-1   80 LAN 8-0   130 LAN 12-2
31 SD 6-4   81 SD 10-3   131 LAN 12-3
32 SD 6-1   82 LAN 9-1   132 SD 11-7
33 SD 5-0   83 LAN 8-6   133 SD 13-3
34 LAN 4-0   84 LAN 9-3   134 SD 13-4
35 LAN 6-3   85 SD 10-0   135 LAN 10-8
36 SD 6-5   86 LAN 9-4   136 SD 13-0
37 LAN 6-2   87 SD 10-4   137 SD 14-1
38 SD 7-2   88 SD 9-6   138 LAN 10-9
39 LAN 6-4   89 SD 11-1   139 SD 13-6
40 SD 7-1   90 SD 11-2   140 SD 10-9
41 LAN 6-1   91 SD 10-5   141 LAN 12-0
42 SD 7-3   92 LAN 9-5   142 SD 12-6
43 LAN 5-0   93 LAN 10-2   143 LAN 13-2
44 SD 6-0   94 LAN 9-0   144 SD 14-3
45 SD 7-4   95 LAN 10-3   145 SD 14-2
46 LAN 7-6   96 SD 9-7   146 SD 14-0
47 SD 7-0   97 SD 11-3   147 LAN 11-7
48 SD 8-2   98 LAN 9-8   148 SD 11-8
49 LAN 7-2   99 SD 11-4   149 LAN 11-6
50 LAN 7-3   100 SD 10-6   150 LAN 12-4

 

Contest Rules:  Guess "over" or "under" on the five questions below.  You must also give confidence points to each guess.  The guess you have the most confidence in you give 5 points, then 4 points ... down to 1 point for the guess you have the least amount of confidence in.  So you must have a guess of 5,4,3,2,1.  If you get a guess correct you get the number of confidence points you wagered on that guess.  A perfect score would be 5+4+3+2+1=15 points.  The person with the most points for the day wins the number of confidence points they guessed correctly.  If there is a tie then the following tie-breaker will be used (1. Guessing the correct team to win, 2. Closest to the score ranking in the table, 3. Person who submits their pick first).  Over/Under points will not be shared.  Points will be kept track of on a monthly basis then reset (with possibly a different contest type) at the end of the month.  You can also win bonus points for correctly guessing the final score from the list of scores in the large table above.  The nightly winner will be the person(s) with the most over/under points.  If you guess the score correctly you get a bonus of whatever number the final score is in the table.  Nobody has to guess the final score correctly to win points.  If any player listed in an over/under question does not play then that question gets thrown out of the contest and fined $100.

Leaderboard:

1. keithc13   108
2. Riffraffselbow 52
3. BFDC 51
4. Xeifrank 47
5. Michael White 34
6. MammothDodger 29
7. Hollywood Joe 26
8. David Young 20
9. LA Taco 15
10. matthewmafa 12
11. kinbote 11
12t. StolenMonkey86 3
12t. nolander 3

 

Over/Under Questions:

A. Total runs in game: 6.5
B. Ted Lilly HRs allowed: 0.5
C. Andre Ethier hitting streak: 24.5
D. Clayton Richard number of strikeouts: 4.5
E. Jerry Sands number of RBIs: 0.5

Sample Answer: 2AU 3BO, 5CO, 4DU, 1EU, #21 LAN 5-3


Contest Results/Picks Via Google Docs

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