FanPost

April 3rd, Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Giants and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Sunday at 12:15 AM)

Vis Pitcher Home Pitcher Vegas Favorite Vegas Win% Vegas O/U Sim Fave Win% Sim O/U
Barry Zito Hiroki Kuroda LAN 57.45% 7.4 57.50% 7.01

1 LAN 3-2 51 LAN 7-5 101 LAN 11-1
2 LAN 2-1 52 SF 7-1 102 SF 11-2
3 LAN 4-3 53 SF 7-5 103 SF 10-5
4 SF 3-2 54 LAN 8-1 104 SF 11-3
5 SF 2-1 55 LAN 8-2 105 LAN 9-7
6 LAN 3-1 56 SF 6-0 106 SF 11-1
7 LAN 4-2 57 SF 7-6 107 SF 9-8
8 LAN 1-0 58 LAN 8-3 108 LAN 11-0
9 SF 4-3 59 SF 8-3 109 LAN 10-6
10 LAN 5-4 60 SF 8-2 110 LAN 11-4
11 SF 3-1 61 SF 8-1 111 SF 11-5
12 LAN 4-1 62 LAN 8-4 112 SF 11-4
13 SF 4-2 63 LAN 9-2 113 LAN 12-1
14 LAN 2-0 64 LAN 8-0 114 SF 10-6
15 LAN 3-0 65 SF 8-4 115 LAN 12-2
16 LAN 5-2 66 SF 7-0 116 SF 10-0
17 LAN 5-3 67 LAN 8-5 117 SF 10-7
18 SF 1-0 68 LAN 9-1 118 LAN 12-3
19 LAN 5-1 69 LAN 9-3 119 LAN 10-7
20 SF 2-0 70 SF 8-5 120 LAN 11-5
21 SF 5-4 71 LAN 8-7 121 SF 11-6
22 SF 5-3 72 SF 8-0 122 SF 12-2
23 SF 4-1 73 SF 8-6 123 SF 10-8
24 LAN 4-0 74 SF 9-2 124 LAN 10-8
25 SF 5-2 75 SF 9-3 125 SF 12-3
26 LAN 6-5 76 LAN 10-2 126 LAN 12-0
27 LAN 6-2 77 LAN 9-4 127 SF 11-0
28 SF 3-0 78 SF 9-4 128 LAN 12-4
29 LAN 6-3 79 LAN 8-6 129 SF 12-1
30 LAN 6-1 80 LAN 9-0 130 LAN 10-9
31 SF 5-1 81 SF 8-7 131 LAN 13-2
32 LAN 5-0 82 LAN 10-1 132 SF 13-2
33 LAN 6-4 83 SF 9-6 133 SF 12-4
34 SF 6-3 84 SF 9-5 134 LAN 11-6
35 SF 6-2 85 SF 9-1 135 LAN 12-5
36 SF 6-4 86 LAN 9-5 136 LAN 13-3
37 SF 6-5 87 LAN 10-3 137 LAN 13-1
38 SF 4-0 88 SF 10-2 138 SF 10-9
39 LAN 7-2 89 LAN 10-0 139 SF 11-7
40 LAN 6-0 90 SF 10-3 140 LAN 11-7
41 LAN 7-1 91 LAN 9-6 141 SF 12-0
42 LAN 7-3 92 SF 10-4 142 LAN 13-4
43 SF 6-1 93 SF 9-7 143 SF 13-4
44 LAN 7-6 94 SF 10-1 144 LAN 14-3
45 LAN 7-4 95 LAN 10-4 145 SF 13-3
46 SF 7-4 96 LAN 9-8 146 SF 11-8
47 SF 5-0 97 SF 9-0 147 SF 14-1
48 SF 7-3 98 LAN 11-2 148 LAN 12-6
49 SF 7-2 99 LAN 10-5 149 LAN 13-0
50 LAN 7-0 100 LAN 11-3 150 SF 12-5

Contest Rules: Guess "over" or "under" on the five questions below. You must also give confidence points to each guess. The guess you have the most confidence in you give 5 points, then 4 points ... down to 1 point for the guess you have the least amount of confidence in. So you must have a guess of 5,4,3,2,1. If you get a guess correct you get the number of confidence points you wagered on that guess. A perfect score would be 5+4+3+2+1=15 points. The person with the most points for the day wins the number of confidence points they guessed correctly. If there is a tie then the points are split evenly (rounded up) between all the winners. Points will be kept track of on a monthly basis then reset (with possibly a different contest type) at the end of the month. You can also win bonus points for correctly guessing the final score from the list of scores in the large table above. The nightly winner will be the person(s) with the most over/under points. If you guess the score correctly you get a bonus of whatever number the final score is in the table. Nobody has to guess the final score correctly to win points. The starting pitchers listed in my table must be the actual starters otherwise only the game score portion of the contest is valid.

Leaderboard:

1. keithc13 14
2t. BFDC 12
2t. matthewmafa 12
3. StolenMonkey86 3

Over/Under Questions:

A. Total runs scored both teams: 7.5
B. Hiroki Kuroda strikeouts minus walks: 4.5
C. Barry Zito HRs allowed: 0.5
D. HongZhi Kuo number of pitches: 6.5
E. Dodgers number of singles: 5.5

Sample Answer: 2AU 3BO, 5CO, 4DU, 1EU, #21 LAN 5-3

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.