FanPost

Padres vs Dodgers, April 30th Simulation + Contest

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Padres and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.   Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Saturday at 9:15 AM)

Vis Pitcher Home Pitcher Vegas Favorite Vegas Win% Vegas O/U Sim Fave Win% Sim O/U
Tim Stauffer Hiroki Kuroda LAN 56.90% 6.6 49.71% 6.78

 

1 LAN 2-1   51 LAN 6-0   101 SD 11-0
2 LAN 3-2   52 LAN 7-2   102 LAN 11-3
3 SD 2-1   53 SD 7-5   103 SD 9-7
4 SD 3-2   54 LAN 7-3   104 SD 12-1
5 LAN 4-3   55 LAN 7-4   105 LAN 10-5
6 SD 3-1   56 LAN 7-1   106 SD 11-4
7 LAN 1-0   57 SD 8-4   107 LAN 11-2
8 SD 4-2   58 SD 8-0   108 LAN 11-1
9 SD 4-3   59 LAN 7-5   109 SD 12-2
10 LAN 3-1   60 SD 7-6   110 SD 10-6
11 SD 1-0   61 SD 9-2   111 LAN 9-7
12 SD 2-0   62 SD 9-1   112 SD 12-0
13 SD 4-1   63 LAN 7-0   113 LAN 10-0
14 LAN 5-4   64 LAN 8-2   114 SD 9-8
15 LAN 4-2   65 SD 8-5   115 SD 10-7
16 SD 5-2   66 SD 9-3   116 SD 12-3
17 SD 3-0   67 LAN 8-1   117 LAN 11-4
18 LAN 2-0   68 LAN 8-3   118 LAN 12-2
19 LAN 4-1   69 SD 8-6   119 SD 11-5
20 SD 5-1   70 LAN 8-7   120 SD 13-3
21 SD 5-3   71 LAN 8-4   121 SD 10-8
22 SD 5-4   72 SD 9-4   122 SD 11-6
23 SD 4-0   73 SD 9-0   123 SD 12-4
24 LAN 3-0   74 SD 10-1   124 LAN 11-5
25 LAN 5-2   75 LAN 8-5   125 SD 13-2
26 LAN 5-3   76 LAN 8-0   126 LAN 10-6
27 SD 6-2   77 SD 10-2   127 LAN 12-3
28 SD 6-3   78 SD 10-3   128 LAN 10-9
29 SD 5-0   79 LAN 9-2   129 LAN 12-1
30 SD 6-1   80 LAN 9-1   130 LAN 11-0
31 LAN 5-1   81 SD 8-7   131 SD 13-0
32 SD 6-4   82 LAN 9-3   132 LAN 10-7
33 LAN 4-0   83 SD 9-5   133 SD 13-1
34 LAN 6-5   84 LAN 8-6   134 LAN 13-3
35 LAN 6-3   85 SD 10-0   135 LAN 12-4
36 SD 6-0   86 SD 10-4   136 SD 12-5
37 SD 7-2   87 SD 9-6   137 SD 11-7
38 SD 6-5   88 LAN 9-4   138 SD 14-1
39 LAN 6-4   89 SD 11-1   139 LAN 10-8
40 LAN 6-2   90 SD 11-2   140 SD 10-9
41 SD 7-1   91 LAN 10-2   141 LAN 12-5
42 SD 7-3   92 SD 11-3   142 SD 12-6
43 LAN 6-1   93 LAN 10-1   143 SD 13-4
44 LAN 5-0   94 SD 10-5   144 LAN 13-1
45 SD 7-4   95 LAN 9-5   145 LAN 12-0
46 SD 7-0   96 LAN 10-3   146 SD 11-8
47 SD 8-2   97 LAN 9-0   147 LAN 11-8
48 SD 8-1   98 LAN 9-8   148 SD 14-2
49 LAN 7-6   99 LAN 10-4   149 LAN 11-6
50 SD 8-3   100 LAN 9-6   150 SD 15-1

 

Contest Rules:  Guess "over" or "under" on the five questions below.  You must also give confidence points to each guess.  The guess you have the most confidence in you give 5 points, then 4 points ... down to 1 point for the guess you have the least amount of confidence in.  So you must have a guess of 5,4,3,2,1.  If you get a guess correct you get the number of confidence points you wagered on that guess.  A perfect score would be 5+4+3+2+1=15 points.  The person with the most points for the day wins the number of confidence points they guessed correctly.  If there is a tie then the following tie-breaker will be used (1. Guessing the correct team to win, 2. Closest to the score ranking in the table, 3. Person who submits their pick first).  Over/Under points will not be shared.  Points will be kept track of on a monthly basis then reset (with possibly a different contest type) at the end of the month.  You can also win bonus points for correctly guessing the final score from the list of scores in the large table above.  The nightly winner will be the person(s) with the most over/under points.  If you guess the score correctly you get a bonus of whatever number the final score is in the table.  Nobody has to guess the final score correctly to win points.  If any player listed in an over/under question does not play then that question gets thrown out of the contest and fined $100.

Leaderboard:

1. keithc13   108
2. Riffraffselbow 52
3. BFDC 51
4. Xeifrank 47
5. Michael White 34
6. MammothDodger 29
7. Hollywood Joe 26
8. David Young 20
9. nolander 17
10. LA Taco 15
11. matthewmafa 12
12. kinbote 11
13. StolenMonkey86 3

 

Over/Under Questions:

A. Total runs in game: 6.5
B. Hiroki Kuroda total pitches: 100.5
C. Andre Ethier hitting streak: 25.5
D. Tim Stauffer number of strikeouts: 4.5
E. Padres hits in first five innings: 3.5

Sample Answer: 2AU 3BO, 5CO, 4DU, 1EU, #21 LAN 5-3


Contest Results/Picks Via Google Docs.
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