FanPost

April 5th, Dodgers vs Rockies - Simulation + Contest

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Rockies using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.   Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Monday at 11:25 PM)

Vis Pitcher Home Pitcher Vegas Favorite Vegas Win% Vegas O/U Sim Fave Win% Sim O/U
Clayton Kershaw Jhoulys Chacin COL 50.00% 8.0 51.71% 8.65

 

1 COL 4-3   51 LAN 8-2   101 LAN 11-2
2 COL 3-2   52 LAN 7-1   102 COL 11-3
3 COL 5-4   53 COL 3-0   103 LAN 10-7
4 COL 2-1   54 LAN 1-0   104 COL 11-2
5 COL 6-5   55 COL 8-5   105 COL 11-4
6 LAN 4-3   56 COL 8-3   106 LAN 9-0
7 LAN 3-2   57 LAN 5-0   107 COL 10-1
8 LAN 5-4   58 COL 9-8   108 COL 10-7
9 LAN 4-2   59 COL 4-0   109 COL 10-8
10 COL 4-2   60 COL 8-4   110 COL 11-5
11 LAN 5-3   61 COL 8-2   111 LAN 11-4
12 COL 7-6   62 LAN 8-7   112 LAN 11-5
13 COL 5-3   63 LAN 9-3   113 LAN 10-8
14 LAN 2-1   64 LAN 8-1   114 COL 9-0
15 LAN 3-1   65 COL 7-1   115 COL 8-0
16 LAN 6-5   66 COL 8-6   116 COL 12-3
17 LAN 5-2   67 LAN 6-0   117 LAN 10-9
18 LAN 6-4   68 LAN 9-4   118 LAN 11-6
19 COL 6-4   69 LAN 9-2   119 COL 11-1
20 COL 3-1   70 COL 9-3   120 COL 11-6
21 LAN 6-3   71 LAN 9-5   121 COL 12-4
22 COL 5-2   72 COL 8-1   122 LAN 12-4
23 LAN 4-1   73 COL 9-4   123 LAN 12-3
24 COL 6-3   74 LAN 9-6   124 LAN 11-1
25 LAN 6-2   75 LAN 9-7   125 LAN 11-7
26 COL 4-1   76 COL 9-6   126 COL 11-7
27 LAN 5-1   77 COL 5-0   127 LAN 12-2
28 LAN 7-4   78 COL 9-2   128 COL 11-10
29 LAN 7-3   79 LAN 9-1   129 LAN 12-5
30 LAN 7-6   80 LAN 7-0   130 LAN 11-8
31 COL 8-7   81 COL 6-0   131 COL 12-2
32 LAN 7-5   82 COL 9-5   132 COL 12-5
33 COL 6-2   83 LAN 9-8   133 LAN 10-0
34 COL 7-5   84 LAN 10-3   134 COL 13-4
35 LAN 7-2   85 COL 9-7   135 LAN 12-6
36 COL 7-4   86 LAN 10-2   136 COL 13-5
37 COL 1-0   87 LAN 10-4   137 COL 13-3
38 LAN 6-1   88 COL 10-4   138 COL 12-6
39 COL 5-1   89 LAN 10-5   139 COL 10-0
40 COL 7-3   90 COL 10-3   140 LAN 12-1
41 COL 7-2   91 COL 9-1   141 COL 12-1
42 COL 6-1   92 COL 10-9   142 COL 11-9
43 LAN 3-0   93 COL 10-2   143 LAN 11-9
44 LAN 8-4   94 LAN 8-0   144 COL 13-2
45 LAN 8-3   95 LAN 10-6   145 LAN 13-4
46 LAN 4-0   96 COL 7-0   146 LAN 11-0
47 LAN 8-5   97 COL 10-5   147 LAN 13-1
48 LAN 2-0   98 COL 10-6   148 LAN 11-10
49 LAN 8-6   99 LAN 11-3   149 LAN 12-7
50 COL 2-0   100 LAN 10-1   150 COL 12-7

 

Contest Rules:  Guess "over" or "under" on the five questions below.  You must also give confidence points to each guess.  The guess you have the most confidence in you give 5 points, then 4 points ... down to 1 point for the guess you have the least amount of confidence in.  So you must have a guess of 5,4,3,2,1.  If you get a guess correct you get the number of confidence points you wagered on that guess.  A perfect score would be 5+4+3+2+1=15 points.  The person with the most points for the day wins the number of confidence points they guessed correctly.  If there is a tie then the points are split evenly (rounded up) between all the winners.  Points will be kept track of on a monthly basis then reset (with possibly a different contest type) at the end of the month.  You can also win bonus points for correctly guessing the final score from the list of scores in the large table above.  The nightly winner will be the person(s) with the most over/under points.  If you guess the score correctly you get a bonus of whatever number the final score is in the table.  Nobody has to guess the final score correctly to win points.  The starting pitchers listed in my table must be the actual starters otherwise only the game score portion of the contest is valid.

Leaderboard:

1. keithc13 14
2. Hollywood Joe 13
3t. BFDC 12
3t. matthewmafa 12
5. StolenMonkey86 3

 

Over/Under Questions:

A. Dodgers runs minus Rockies runs: 0.5
B. Kershaw strikeouts minus Chacin strikeouts: 1.5
C. Total HRs in game combined both teams: 1.5
D. Huston Street total pitches: 6.5
E. Dodgers starting CF/RF/1B number of times struck out: 2.5

Sample Answer: 2AU 3BO, 5CO, 4DU, 1EU, #21 LAN 5-3

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join True Blue LA

You must be a member of True Blue LA to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at True Blue LA. You should read them.

Join True Blue LA

You must be a member of True Blue LA to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at True Blue LA. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker