FanPost

Dodgers vs Pirates, May 10th Simulation + Contest

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Pirates using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.   Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Tuesday at 12:01 AM)

Vis Pitcher Home Pitcher Vegas Favorite Vegas Win% Vegas O/U Sim Fave Win% Sim O/U
Ted Lilly Kevin Correia PIT 51.92% 7.2 56.26% 8.08

 

1 PIT 3-2   51 LAN 5-0   101 LAN 9-0
2 PIT 4-3   52 PIT 6-0   102 PIT 9-7
3 PIT 2-1   53 LAN 7-1   103 PIT 11-1
4 PIT 5-4   54 PIT 8-2   104 PIT 10-0
5 LAN 3-2   55 LAN 8-3   105 PIT 11-3
6 LAN 4-3   56 PIT 8-7   106 LAN 11-2
7 PIT 4-2   57 PIT 8-3   107 LAN 10-6
8 PIT 3-1   58 LAN 8-2   108 LAN 11-4
9 LAN 2-1   59 LAN 8-4   109 LAN 10-7
10 LAN 4-2   60 PIT 8-1   110 PIT 10-6
11 PIT 6-5   61 PIT 7-0   111 PIT 11-4
12 PIT 4-1   62 PIT 8-4   112 PIT 10-7
13 LAN 5-4   63 PIT 8-5   113 LAN 11-5
14 LAN 3-1   64 LAN 6-0   114 PIT 11-5
15 PIT 5-3   65 LAN 8-5   115 PIT 12-2
16 PIT 5-2   66 LAN 8-6   116 PIT 12-3
17 PIT 1-0   67 LAN 8-1   117 LAN 11-6
18 LAN 5-3   68 PIT 9-3   118 PIT 10-9
19 LAN 4-1   69 LAN 8-7   119 LAN 12-3
20 PIT 2-0   70 PIT 9-2   120 PIT 10-8
21 LAN 5-2   71 LAN 9-3   121 PIT 12-1
22 PIT 5-1   72 LAN 9-4   122 LAN 10-8
23 PIT 6-3   73 LAN 9-2   123 LAN 11-1
24 PIT 3-0   74 PIT 9-1   124 PIT 11-6
25 PIT 6-4   75 PIT 8-6   125 LAN 12-2
26 LAN 6-4   76 LAN 9-5   126 PIT 11-0
27 PIT 6-2   77 PIT 8-0   127 LAN 12-1
28 LAN 6-3   78 PIT 9-4   128 LAN 10-0
29 LAN 6-5   79 LAN 7-0   129 LAN 12-4
30 PIT 7-6   80 LAN 9-1   130 PIT 12-4
31 LAN 2-0   81 PIT 10-2   131 LAN 10-9
32 PIT 4-0   82 PIT 9-8   132 LAN 13-2
33 LAN 5-1   83 PIT 9-5   133 LAN 12-5
34 LAN 1-0   84 PIT 10-3   134 LAN 11-0
35 LAN 6-2   85 LAN 10-3   135 PIT 12-5
36 PIT 6-1   86 PIT 9-6   136 LAN 11-8
37 LAN 3-0   87 LAN 10-4   137 PIT 13-2
38 LAN 6-1   88 LAN 10-2   138 PIT 13-1
39 PIT 5-0   89 LAN 8-0   139 PIT 13-3
40 LAN 7-3   90 PIT 10-4   140 PIT 11-10
41 PIT 7-2   91 LAN 9-6   141 LAN 11-7
42 LAN 7-2   92 PIT 9-0   142 PIT 12-6
43 PIT 7-4   93 PIT 10-1   143 PIT 11-7
44 LAN 4-0   94 PIT 11-2   144 LAN 12-6
45 LAN 7-4   95 LAN 9-7   145 LAN 13-3
46 PIT 7-3   96 LAN 10-1   146 LAN 11-9
47 PIT 7-1   97 LAN 10-5   147 PIT 12-0
48 LAN 7-5   98 PIT 10-5   148 PIT 14-3
49 PIT 7-5   99 LAN 11-3   149 PIT 13-4
50 LAN 7-6   100 LAN 9-8   150 LAN 13-1

 

Contest Rules:  Guess "over" or "under" on the five questions below.  You must also give confidence points to each guess.  The guess you have the most confidence in you give 5 points, then 4 points ... down to 1 point for the guess you have the least amount of confidence in.  So you must have a guess of 5,4,3,2,1.  If you get a guess correct you get the number of confidence points you wagered on that guess.  A perfect score would be 5+4+3+2+1=15 points.  The person with the most points for the day wins the number of confidence points they guessed correctly.  If there is a tie then the following tie-breaker will be used (1. Guessing the correct team to win, 2. Closest to the score ranking in the table, 3. Person who submits their pick first).  Over/Under points will not be shared.  Points will be kept track of on a monthly basis then reset (with possibly a different contest type) at the end of the month.  You can also win bonus points for correctly guessing the final score from the list of scores in the large table above.  The nightly winner will be the person(s) with the most over/under points.  If you guess the score correctly you get a bonus of whatever number the final score is in the table.  Nobody has to guess the final score correctly to win points.  If any player listed in an over/under question does not play then that question gets thrown out of the contest.


April Winner: keithc13 108 points

May Leaderboard:

1. LA Taco 24
2t. WGiles24 15
2t. nolander 15
4. Xeifrank 14
5. G.Scott 9
6. keithc13 8

 

Over/Under Questions:

A. Pirates runs minus Dodgers runs: 0.5
B. Ted Lilly HRs allowed: 0.5
C. K.Correia strikeouts: 4.5
D. James Loney LOB minus Andre Ethier total bases: 0.5
E. Andrew McCutchen plus Jose Tabata hits: 2.5

(Notes: Loney/Ethier must start for D to be valid.  McCutchen/Tabata must start for E to be valid)

Sample Answer: 2AU 3BO, 5CO, 4DU, 1EU, #21 LAN 5-3


Contest Results/Picks Via Google Docs.

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