The Dodgers Past Predicts The Future

The best predictor of the future is the past.  If one applies this axiom to the current Dodgers, the immediate future looks grim:

Rafael Furcal - Great player but getting older at 33, numbers are dropping, steals are down, often injured. His stats show a bell curve with numbers increasing to a high from 2003 to 2006, then they drop down.  The future?  More injuries with brief periods of brilliance. 

Casey Blake - Can we wait for Casey to save the Dodgers?  Soon to be 38, he has been amazingly consistent over the years, but he is definitely on the down side of his career.  Strike outs are up.  Injuries are up.  We might squeeze a few more good games out of him, but if he were a building I would be putting up a new one right now.   The future?  No break out seasons are in there.  

Jay Gibbons - 34 years old.  Hit some when he was juiced.  Now he's not.  There is no up side here.

Juan Castro - 40 in June, Juan could never hit much and he is not going to start now.  His future looks just like yesterday.  You will see more grounders to third.  This is an indictment of the general manager.

Jamey Carroll - 37 and still getting on base.  That is what he has always done and the Dodgers are fortunate that he can still do it, but it cannot continue for long.  He is on his fifth team for a reason.

Juan Uribe - At 32, he is not getting any younger or thinner.  Wild swings, can't run, poor OBP, great fielder.  His best year was last year, but unless he cuts his swings, he will be out of baseball soon.  His past indicates that he will get on base less and less in the future.  His diet indicates that he will find it harder and harder to stay in the major leagues.

Rod Barajas - 35 and working for his sixth ML team.  His history indicates swinging for the fences, lots of fly balls, not much at getting on base.  This is not likely to change in the future without a brain transplant.

Jon Broxton - Jon still has an upside, but he may need to learn how to pitch if he can't throw 100 mpg anymore.  

Andre Ethier - Lots of potential, but his age indicates that this is as good as it gets.  His future may be at first base or left field.

Matt Kemp - Kemp's strike out totals seem to be dropping, but they still project out to too many.  Yet, there is potential for more here.

James Loney - Please, Tommy Lasorda, give this guy a nickname.  We all waited for his potential to kick in, but now it is apparent that it is not there and never was.  He seems to be a nice guy and as Leo Durocher used to say, nice guys finish last.  His batting stance is a crouch that robs him of his power and takes away his ability to hit inside pitches.  His swing has no weight behind it.  He is already lean, but definitely not mean.  His past indicates that James will not likely wise up.

Dioner Navarro - His past says he quits.  When he doesn't quit, he still can't hit much.

Russ Mitchell - Are they kidding us?

Lance Cormier - Ouch.

Tony Gwynn Jr. - His past shows good field, no hit.  His future is best described by the team that just gave up on him.

Frank McCourt - Look out for the train, McCourt.   This is your team and it is not a pretty sight.  A business becomes a reflection of its management.  Toot toot.  

Ned Colletti - Ned's past shows he favors older, mediocre players on the down side of their careers over young players on the way up.  Castro, Barajas, Gibbons, Miles, Carroll, Blake, Manny, Garland, Lilly,  I rest my case.  He just brought back Troncoso and his 20 ERA.  With Sands, Kemp, and Ethier, the outfield has a future.  The infield will soon be collecting Social Security.  Ned shows that he is a poor judge of baseball talent.  Any fantasy player would NEVER put together this lineup.  He needs to be on the tracks with Frank.

Don Mattingly - I feel sorry for Mattingly.  He was hired by McCourt and Colletti.  This makes him part of the problem, not the solution.  Truthfully, a manager cannot do a lot strategy-wise to save a team from disaster, but he can convince a player now and then to change his ways.  Uribe and Barajas could cut their swings.  Loney could look at some tape of his days back in the minors.  Broxton could be convinced to cut the donuts out of his diet.  As a manager with 40 years of experience, I know that Don can put a few feet to the fire.  When their toes get warm, they often get religion.  Baseball players who don't play can suddenly have an epiphany.  This means that  you cannot be their friend.  Popular managers lose control.  Wildly unpopular managers do too.  There is a place in between and Mattingly needs to find it fast.  

I hope I am wrong, but the past says trouble lies ahead.  Sure with the starting pitching and some improvement in the bullpen, the Dodgers could contend if Furcal and Blake return.  But if not, ready or not, the Dodgers need to give their youngsters some seasoning.  Rubby, Dee, and Trayvon need to be here this year.  Lose Navarro and give us back Ellis who at least gets on base.  How about a few fireballing kid pitchers for the bullpen?  Guerra looks good.  There's more where he came from.