FanPost

Dodgers vs White Sox, May 22nd Simulation + Contest

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the White Sox using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.   Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Sunday at 12:15 AM)

Vis Pitcher Home Pitcher Vegas Favorite Vegas Win% Vegas O/U Sim Fave Win% Sim O/U
Hiroki Kuroda Edwin Jackson CHA 56.80% 8.1 54.38% 8.06

 

1 CHA 3-2   51 LAN 5-0   101 CHA 11-3
2 CHA 4-3   52 CHA 7-1   102 CHA 11-2
3 CHA 2-1   53 LAN 7-1   103 LAN 9-8
4 CHA 5-4   54 LAN 8-3   104 CHA 10-0
5 LAN 3-2   55 CHA 8-2   105 CHA 11-4
6 LAN 4-3   56 CHA 8-7   106 LAN 10-6
7 LAN 2-1   57 LAN 8-2   107 CHA 11-1
8 CHA 4-2   58 LAN 8-4   108 LAN 11-1
9 CHA 3-1   59 CHA 8-3   109 CHA 10-6
10 LAN 3-1   60 CHA 7-0   110 LAN 11-4
11 LAN 4-2   61 LAN 6-0   111 CHA 10-7
12 CHA 1-0   62 CHA 8-1   112 LAN 11-3
13 CHA 4-1   63 LAN 8-5   113 CHA 11-5
14 CHA 6-5   64 CHA 8-4   114 LAN 10-0
15 CHA 5-3   65 CHA 8-5   115 LAN 11-5
16 LAN 5-4   66 LAN 8-1   116 CHA 10-9
17 LAN 5-3   67 LAN 8-6   117 LAN 10-7
18 CHA 5-2   68 LAN 7-0   118 CHA 11-0
19 LAN 5-2   69 CHA 8-6   119 LAN 11-6
20 CHA 2-0   70 LAN 9-2   120 CHA 12-4
21 LAN 4-1   71 CHA 9-2   121 CHA 12-1
22 CHA 5-1   72 CHA 9-3   122 CHA 12-2
23 CHA 3-0   73 LAN 8-7   123 LAN 10-8
24 CHA 6-3   74 CHA 9-1   124 CHA 10-8
25 LAN 5-1   75 LAN 9-3   125 CHA 12-3
26 LAN 1-0   76 LAN 9-4   126 CHA 11-6
27 CHA 6-4   77 LAN 9-5   127 LAN 12-2
28 LAN 6-4   78 CHA 9-4   128 LAN 12-3
29 LAN 6-2   79 CHA 8-0   129 LAN 12-4
30 LAN 2-0   80 LAN 9-1   130 LAN 10-9
31 CHA 4-0   81 CHA 9-5   131 CHA 13-2
32 LAN 6-5   82 LAN 8-0   132 LAN 12-1
33 LAN 6-3   83 LAN 10-4   133 LAN 11-0
34 CHA 6-2   84 CHA 9-8   134 CHA 12-5
35 CHA 7-6   85 LAN 10-3   135 CHA 11-7
36 CHA 6-1   86 LAN 9-6   136 LAN 13-3
37 LAN 3-0   87 CHA 10-3   137 LAN 11-7
38 CHA 5-0   88 CHA 10-2   138 LAN 12-5
39 LAN 6-1   89 CHA 9-6   139 CHA 12-0
40 LAN 4-0   90 CHA 10-4   140 LAN 12-6
41 LAN 7-4   91 LAN 10-2   141 CHA 11-9
42 LAN 7-3   92 CHA 10-1   142 CHA 12-6
43 CHA 7-3   93 CHA 9-0   143 LAN 11-8
44 CHA 7-2   94 LAN 9-0   144 CHA 13-1
45 LAN 7-2   95 LAN 9-7   145 LAN 13-2
46 LAN 7-5   96 CHA 10-5   146 LAN 13-4
47 CHA 6-0   97 CHA 9-7   147 CHA 11-10
48 CHA 7-5   98 LAN 10-5   148 CHA 13-4
49 CHA 7-4   99 LAN 11-2   149 CHA 13-3
50 LAN 7-6   100 LAN 10-1   150 LAN 13-1

 

Contest Rules:  Guess "over" or "under" on the five questions below.  You must also give confidence points to each guess.  The guess you have the most confidence in you give 5 points, then 4 points ... down to 1 point for the guess you have the least amount of confidence in.  So you must have a guess of 5,4,3,2,1.  If you get a guess correct you get the number of confidence points you wagered on that guess.  A perfect score would be 5+4+3+2+1=15 points.  The person with the most points for the day wins the number of confidence points they guessed correctly.  If there is a tie then the following tie-breaker will be used (1. Guessing the correct team to win, 2. Closest to the score ranking in the table, 3. Person who submits their pick first).  Over/Under points will not be shared.  Points will be kept track of on a monthly basis then reset (with possibly a different contest type) at the end of the month.  You can also win bonus points for correctly guessing the final score from the list of scores in the large table above.  The nightly winner will be the person(s) with the most over/under points.  If you guess the score correctly you get a bonus of whatever number the final score is in the table.  Nobody has to guess the final score correctly to win points.  If any player listed in an over/under question does not play then that question gets thrown out of the contest.


April Winner: keithc13 108 points

May Leaderboard:

1. Xeifrank 55
2. nolander 30
3t. BFDC 26
3t. MammothDodger 26
3t. WGiles24 26
6. LA Taco 24
7. David Young 13
8. G.Scott 9
9. keithc13 8

 

Over/Under Questions:

A. Total Runs Scored: 7.5
B. Hiroki Kuroda strikeouts: 4.5
C. White Sox bullpen pitchers used: 3.5
D. Andre Ethier number of singles: 0.5
E. Total HRs in game both teams combined: 2.5

Sample Answer: 2AU 3BO, 5CO, 4DU, 1EU, #21 LAN 5-3


Contest Results/Picks. Via Google Docs.

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