FanPost

Dodgers vs Astros, May 24th Simulation + Contest

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Astros using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Monday at 11:15 PM)

Vis Pitcher Home Pitcher Vegas Favorite Vegas Win% Vegas O/U Sim Fave Win% Sim O/U
Chad Billingsley J.A. Happ Dodgers 54.44% 7.2 54.69% 7.23

1 HOU 3-2 51 HOU 5-0 101 LAN 12-2
2 HOU 2-1 52 HOU 7-2 102 HOU 9-6
3 HOU 4-3 53 HOU 7-3 103 HOU 9-0
4 LAN 3-2 54 HOU 7-4 104 LAN 10-6
5 LAN 2-1 55 LAN 8-4 105 HOU 10-4
6 LAN 3-1 56 LAN 7-6 106 LAN 12-1
7 LAN 4-3 57 LAN 9-2 107 LAN 11-5
8 LAN 4-2 58 HOU 7-5 108 LAN 11-4
9 HOU 1-0 59 HOU 7-1 109 HOU 11-3
10 HOU 5-4 60 HOU 6-0 110 HOU 9-7
11 HOU 3-1 61 LAN 8-0 111 HOU 10-5
12 LAN 4-1 62 LAN 8-5 112 HOU 11-2
13 LAN 2-0 63 LAN 9-3 113 LAN 12-3
14 HOU 4-2 64 LAN 9-1 114 LAN 10-7
15 LAN 1-0 65 HOU 8-7 115 HOU 11-1
16 LAN 5-2 66 LAN 9-4 116 LAN 12-4
17 LAN 5-3 67 HOU 8-3 117 LAN 10-8
18 LAN 3-0 68 HOU 8-2 118 HOU 10-0
19 LAN 5-4 69 LAN 8-6 119 HOU 11-4
20 HOU 2-0 70 HOU 8-4 120 HOU 10-9
21 LAN 5-1 71 HOU 8-1 121 HOU 10-6
22 HOU 4-1 72 LAN 9-0 122 LAN 11-6
23 LAN 4-0 73 HOU 7-0 123 LAN 12-0
24 HOU 6-5 74 LAN 10-1 124 LAN 13-1
25 HOU 5-3 75 HOU 8-5 125 LAN 12-5
26 HOU 5-2 76 LAN 10-2 126 HOU 12-3
27 LAN 6-3 77 LAN 9-5 127 HOU 10-7
28 LAN 6-2 78 LAN 8-7 128 LAN 13-2
29 LAN 6-1 79 LAN 10-3 129 HOU 11-5
30 LAN 5-0 80 HOU 8-6 130 LAN 11-7
31 LAN 6-4 81 HOU 9-3 131 LAN 13-3
32 HOU 3-0 82 HOU 9-2 132 LAN 10-9
33 LAN 6-5 83 HOU 9-1 133 HOU 12-2
34 HOU 5-1 84 LAN 10-4 134 LAN 13-0
35 LAN 6-0 85 LAN 10-0 135 LAN 12-6
36 LAN 7-2 86 LAN 11-2 136 LAN 13-4
37 HOU 6-3 87 HOU 9-4 137 LAN 14-2
38 LAN 7-1 88 HOU 8-0 138 LAN 11-8
39 HOU 6-4 89 LAN 9-6 139 HOU 12-4
40 LAN 7-3 90 HOU 9-8 140 HOU 12-5
41 HOU 4-0 91 LAN 11-1 141 HOU 13-3
42 HOU 6-2 92 HOU 10-2 142 HOU 11-0
43 LAN 7-4 93 LAN 9-7 143 LAN 13-5
44 HOU 7-6 94 LAN 10-5 144 HOU 11-10
45 HOU 6-1 95 HOU 9-5 145 HOU 11-8
46 LAN 7-0 96 LAN 11-3 146 HOU 10-8
47 LAN 8-1 97 LAN 11-0 147 LAN 11-9
48 LAN 7-5 98 HOU 10-1 148 LAN 14-3
49 LAN 8-2 99 HOU 10-3 149 LAN 14-0
50 LAN 8-3 100 LAN 9-8 150 HOU 11-6

Contest Rules: Guess "over" or "under" on the five questions below. You must also give confidence points to each guess. The guess you have the most confidence in you give 5 points, then 4 points ... down to 1 point for the guess you have the least amount of confidence in. So you must have a guess of 5,4,3,2,1. If you get a guess correct you get the number of confidence points you wagered on that guess. A perfect score would be 5+4+3+2+1=15 points. The person with the most points for the day wins the number of confidence points they guessed correctly. If there is a tie then the following tie-breaker will be used (1. Guessing the correct team to win, 2. Closest to the score ranking in the table, 3. Person who submits their pick first). Over/Under points will not be shared. Points will be kept track of on a monthly basis then reset (with possibly a different contest type) at the end of the month. You can also win bonus points for correctly guessing the final score from the list of scores in the large table above. The nightly winner will be the person(s) with the most over/under points. If you guess the score correctly you get a bonus of whatever number the final score is in the table. Nobody has to guess the final score correctly to win points. If any player listed in an over/under question does not play then that question gets thrown out of the contest.


April Winner: keithc13 108 points

May Leaderboard:

1. Xeifrank 64
2. LA Taco 38
3. nolander 30
4t. BFDC 26
4t. MammothDodger 26
4t. WGiles24 26
7. David Young 13
8. G.Scott 9
9. keithc13 8

Over/Under Kershuestions:

A. Total Runs Scored: 6.5
B. Jerry Sands at bats: 3.5
C. Jerry Sands hits: 0.5
D. Jerry Sands walks: 0.5
E. Matt Kemp minus Jerry Sands total bases: 0.5


Note: If Jerry Sands does not start, he is replaced with Dodgers starting LFer in this contest.

Sample Answer: 2AU 3BO, 5CO, 4DU, 1EU, #21 LAN 5-3


Contest Results/Picks Via Google Docs

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.