FanPost

Dodgers vs Astros, May 25th Simulation + Contest

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Astros using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.   Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Wednesday at 12:15 AM)

Vis Pitcher Home Pitcher Vegas Favorite Vegas Win% Vegas O/U Sim Fave Win% Sim O/U
Ted Lilly Aneury Rodriguez Dodgers 53.81% 7.9 52.42% 8.26

 

1 HOU 3-2   51 HOU 7-2   101 LAN 11-1
2 HOU 4-3   52 LAN 8-4   102 HOU 10-4
3 LAN 3-2   53 HOU 7-5   103 HOU 9-7
4 HOU 5-4   54 HOU 5-0   104 LAN 10-7
5 HOU 2-1   55 LAN 8-1   105 LAN 10-0
6 LAN 4-3   56 HOU 7-1   106 LAN 12-2
7 LAN 4-2   57 LAN 6-0   107 HOU 10-1
8 LAN 5-4   58 HOU 8-7   108 HOU 10-5
9 LAN 2-1   59 LAN 8-5   109 HOU 10-9
10 LAN 5-3   60 LAN 9-3   110 LAN 12-3
11 HOU 4-2   61 LAN 9-2   111 HOU 10-6
12 LAN 3-1   62 LAN 8-6   112 LAN 11-6
13 HOU 6-5   63 HOU 8-3   113 LAN 12-4
14 HOU 3-1   64 LAN 7-0   114 HOU 9-0
15 LAN 5-2   65 LAN 9-4   115 LAN 10-8
16 HOU 5-3   66 HOU 6-0   116 HOU 11-4
17 LAN 4-1   67 HOU 8-5   117 HOU 10-7
18 HOU 4-1   68 HOU 8-2   118 LAN 12-1
19 HOU 5-2   69 HOU 8-4   119 HOU 11-3
20 LAN 6-3   70 LAN 9-5   120 LAN 12-5
21 LAN 6-4   71 LAN 9-1   121 HOU 11-2
22 LAN 6-5   72 LAN 8-7   122 HOU 10-8
23 LAN 6-2   73 HOU 8-6   123 HOU 11-1
24 LAN 5-1   74 LAN 10-2   124 LAN 10-9
25 HOU 1-0   75 HOU 8-1   125 LAN 12-6
26 HOU 6-3   76 LAN 9-6   126 LAN 11-0
27 HOU 6-4   77 LAN 10-3   127 LAN 13-2
28 HOU 2-0   78 LAN 8-0   128 LAN 11-7
29 HOU 5-1   79 LAN 10-4   129 LAN 13-3
30 LAN 2-0   80 HOU 9-4   130 LAN 13-4
31 LAN 7-3   81 HOU 9-3   131 HOU 11-5
32 HOU 7-6   82 HOU 9-2   132 HOU 11-6
33 LAN 6-1   83 HOU 7-0   133 HOU 10-0
34 HOU 6-2   84 LAN 10-1   134 LAN 12-7
35 LAN 7-2   85 LAN 9-7   135 HOU 12-3
36 LAN 7-4   86 LAN 10-5   136 LAN 13-5
37 LAN 3-0   87 HOU 9-8   137 LAN 13-1
38 LAN 1-0   88 HOU 9-6   138 HOU 12-4
39 HOU 3-0   89 HOU 9-5   139 HOU 12-5
40 LAN 4-0   90 HOU 9-1   140 LAN 12-0
41 LAN 7-5   91 LAN 9-0   141 LAN 11-9
42 LAN 7-1   92 HOU 10-3   142 LAN 13-6
43 HOU 4-0   93 LAN 11-3   143 LAN 14-2
44 LAN 7-6   94 HOU 8-0   144 LAN 14-5
45 HOU 6-1   95 LAN 10-6   145 HOU 13-2
46 LAN 5-0   96 LAN 9-8   146 HOU 12-2
47 LAN 8-3   97 LAN 11-2   147 HOU 11-10
48 HOU 7-4   98 LAN 11-4   148 HOU 13-4
49 HOU 7-3   99 LAN 11-5   149 LAN 13-0
50 LAN 8-2   100 HOU 10-2   150 HOU 11-0

 

Contest Rules:  Guess "over" or "under" on the five questions below.  You must also give confidence points to each guess.  The guess you have the most confidence in you give 5 points, then 4 points ... down to 1 point for the guess you have the least amount of confidence in.  So you must have a guess of 5,4,3,2,1.  If you get a guess correct you get the number of confidence points you wagered on that guess.  A perfect score would be 5+4+3+2+1=15 points.  The person with the most points for the day wins the number of confidence points they guessed correctly.  If there is a tie then the following tie-breaker will be used (1. Guessing the correct team to win, 2. Closest to the score ranking in the table, 3. Person who submits their pick first).  Over/Under points will not be shared.  Points will be kept track of on a monthly basis then reset (with possibly a different contest type) at the end of the month.  You can also win bonus points for correctly guessing the final score from the list of scores in the large table above.  The nightly winner will be the person(s) with the most over/under points.  If you guess the score correctly you get a bonus of whatever number the final score is in the table.  Nobody has to guess the final score correctly to win points.  If any player listed in an over/under question does not play then that question gets thrown out of the contest.


April Winner: keithc13 108 points

May Leaderboard:

1. Xeifrank 78
2. LA Taco 38
3. nolander 30
4t. BFDC 26
4t. MammothDodger 26
4t. WGiles24 26
7. David Young 13
8. G.Scott 9
9. keithc13 8

 

Over/Under Kershuestions:

A. Total Runs Scored: 7.5
B. Ted Lilly HRs Allowed: 0.5
C. Ted Lilly minus Aneury Rodriguez strikeouts: 1.5
D. Dioner Navarro RBIs: 0.5
E. Dodgers starting outfielders total bases: 4.5

 

Sample Answer: 2AU 3BO, 5CO, 4DU, 1EU, #21 LAN 5-3


Contest Results/Picks Via Google Docs.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join True Blue LA

You must be a member of True Blue LA to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at True Blue LA. You should read them.

Join True Blue LA

You must be a member of True Blue LA to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at True Blue LA. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker