FanPost

Marlins vs Dodgers, May 29th Simulation + Contest

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Marlins and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.   Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Sunday at 8:30 AM)

Vis Pitcher Home Pitcher Vegas Favorite Vegas Win% Vegas O/U Sim Fave Win% Sim O/U
Ricky Nolasco Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 55.85% 6.5 59.26% 6.30

 

1 LAN 2-1   51 LAN 8-1   101 LAN 11-3
2 LAN 3-2   52 FLA 6-0   102 FLA 11-2
3 LAN 1-0   53 FLA 7-4   103 FLA 10-0
4 FLA 2-1   54 LAN 8-2   104 FLA 10-5
5 LAN 4-3   55 LAN 8-0   105 LAN 11-4
6 LAN 3-1   56 LAN 7-5   106 FLA 11-3
7 FLA 3-2   57 FLA 7-5   107 FLA 11-1
8 LAN 2-0   58 LAN 8-3   108 LAN 12-1
9 LAN 4-2   59 FLA 7-6   109 LAN 9-7
10 LAN 3-0   60 FLA 8-3   110 LAN 10-5
11 LAN 4-1   61 FLA 7-0   111 FLA 10-6
12 FLA 1-0   62 FLA 8-2   112 FLA 9-8
13 FLA 3-1   63 FLA 8-1   113 LAN 12-2
14 FLA 4-3   64 LAN 9-2   114 FLA 10-7
15 FLA 4-2   65 LAN 9-1   115 LAN 10-6
16 LAN 5-4   66 LAN 8-4   116 FLA 11-4
17 LAN 4-0   67 FLA 8-4   117 LAN 12-3
18 FLA 2-0   68 LAN 9-0   118 FLA 11-5
19 LAN 5-2   69 FLA 9-3   119 LAN 10-7
20 LAN 5-1   70 LAN 8-5   120 LAN 13-0
21 FLA 4-1   71 LAN 8-7   121 LAN 11-5
22 LAN 5-3   72 LAN 9-3   122 LAN 12-0
23 LAN 5-0   73 LAN 10-1   123 FLA 12-2
24 FLA 5-4   74 FLA 9-2   124 FLA 12-1
25 FLA 5-3   75 FLA 9-1   125 LAN 13-1
26 FLA 3-0   76 LAN 10-0   126 FLA 11-6
27 FLA 5-2   77 FLA 8-5   127 FLA 11-0
28 LAN 6-1   78 FLA 8-0   128 LAN 12-4
29 LAN 6-2   79 FLA 8-6   129 FLA 10-8
30 FLA 5-1   80 LAN 10-2   130 FLA 12-3
31 LAN 6-5   81 LAN 8-6   131 LAN 10-9
32 FLA 4-0   82 FLA 9-4   132 FLA 12-4
33 LAN 6-3   83 LAN 9-4   133 LAN 13-2
34 LAN 6-0   84 FLA 8-7   134 LAN 13-3
35 FLA 6-2   85 FLA 9-0   135 LAN 10-8
36 LAN 6-4   86 LAN 11-1   136 FLA 13-4
37 FLA 6-3   87 LAN 10-3   137 FLA 12-0
38 FLA 6-4   88 FLA 9-5   138 LAN 12-5
39 FLA 6-1   89 FLA 10-2   139 FLA 11-7
40 LAN 7-1   90 LAN 9-5   140 FLA 10-9
41 LAN 7-2   91 LAN 11-2   141 FLA 13-3
42 FLA 6-5   92 FLA 10-3   142 LAN 13-4
43 FLA 5-0   93 FLA 9-6   143 FLA 13-0
44 LAN 7-0   94 LAN 10-4   144 FLA 11-8
45 LAN 7-3   95 FLA 10-4   145 LAN 11-6
46 FLA 7-2   96 LAN 9-8   146 LAN 14-0
47 FLA 7-1   97 LAN 11-0   147 FLA 12-6
48 LAN 7-4   98 FLA 9-7   148 LAN 14-2
49 FLA 7-3   99 FLA 10-1   149 LAN 11-8
50 LAN 7-6   100 LAN 9-6   150 LAN 14-1

 

Contest Rules:  Guess "over" or "under" on the five questions below.  You must also give confidence points to each guess.  The guess you have the most confidence in you give 5 points, then 4 points ... down to 1 point for the guess you have the least amount of confidence in.  So you must have a guess of 5,4,3,2,1.  If you get a guess correct you get the number of confidence points you wagered on that guess.  A perfect score would be 5+4+3+2+1=15 points.  The person with the most points for the day wins the number of confidence points they guessed correctly.  If there is a tie then the following tie-breaker will be used (1. Guessing the correct team to win, 2. Closest to the score ranking in the table, 3. Person who submits their pick first).  Over/Under points will not be shared.  Points will be kept track of on a monthly basis then reset (with possibly a different contest type) at the end of the month.  You can also win bonus points for correctly guessing the final score from the list of scores in the large table above.  The nightly winner will be the person(s) with the most over/under points.  If you guess the score correctly you get a bonus of whatever number the final score is in the table.  Nobody has to guess the final score correctly to win points.  If any player listed in an over/under question does not play then that question gets thrown out of the contest.


April Winner: keithc13 108 points

May Leaderboard:

1. Xeifrank 78
2. LA Taco 38
3. nolander 37
4t. BFDC 26
4t. MammothDodger 26
4t. WGiles24 26
7. keithc13 23
8. David Young 13
9. Joey Joe 12
10. G.Scott 9

 

Over/Under Questions

A. Total Runs Scored: 6.5
B. Clayton Kershaw strikeouts: 7.5
C. Ricky Nolasco strikeouts: 5.5
D. Andre Ethier total bases: 1.5
E. Total number of hits in game combined: 14.5

 

Sample Answer: 2AU 3BO, 5CO, 4DU, 1EU, #21 LAN 5-3


Contest Questions/Results Via Google Docs.
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