FanPost

Rockies vs Dodgers, May 30th Simulation + Contest

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Rockies and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.   Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Monday at 9:30 AM)

Vis Pitcher Home Pitcher Vegas Favorite Vegas Win% Vegas O/U Sim Fave Win% Sim O/U
Jason Hammel Chad Billingsley Dodgers 52.38% 7.0 53.11% 6.48

 

1 LAN 2-1   51 LAN 7-0   101 LAN 9-6
2 LAN 3-2   52 COL 8-2   102 COL 11-1
3 COL 2-1   53 LAN 7-4   103 LAN 9-7
4 LAN 1-0   54 COL 7-0   104 LAN 11-1
5 COL 3-2   55 COL 7-5   105 LAN 10-4
6 LAN 4-3   56 LAN 7-5   106 COL 10-6
7 LAN 3-1   57 COL 8-1   107 COL 11-0
8 COL 3-1   58 COL 8-3   108 COL 12-2
9 LAN 2-0   59 COL 7-6   109 COL 11-5
10 COL 4-3   60 LAN 8-1   110 COL 9-8
11 LAN 4-2   61 LAN 8-2   111 LAN 11-2
12 COL 1-0   62 COL 8-4   112 COL 12-3
13 COL 4-2   63 LAN 8-3   113 LAN 11-3
14 LAN 3-0   64 LAN 8-0   114 LAN 11-0
15 LAN 5-4   65 COL 8-5   115 LAN 12-1
16 LAN 4-1   66 COL 9-1   116 COL 12-4
17 COL 2-0   67 COL 8-0   117 COL 10-7
18 COL 4-1   68 COL 9-3   118 LAN 10-5
19 LAN 4-0   69 COL 9-2   119 LAN 10-6
20 COL 3-0   70 LAN 8-7   120 LAN 11-4
21 COL 5-3   71 LAN 8-4   121 COL 10-8
22 LAN 5-2   72 COL 8-6   122 LAN 12-2
23 COL 5-4   73 LAN 9-1   123 LAN 11-5
24 COL 5-2   74 LAN 9-2   124 COL 11-6
25 LAN 5-3   75 LAN 8-5   125 LAN 10-9
26 LAN 5-1   76 COL 9-4   126 COL 12-1
27 COL 5-1   77 COL 8-7   127 COL 12-5
28 COL 4-0   78 LAN 9-3   128 COL 12-0
29 LAN 5-0   79 COL 9-0   129 COL 13-1
30 LAN 6-5   80 COL 10-2   130 LAN 10-8
31 COL 6-2   81 LAN 9-0   131 LAN 10-7
32 LAN 6-2   82 COL 9-5   132 LAN 12-0
33 COL 6-3   83 LAN 8-6   133 LAN 12-4
34 COL 6-1   84 COL 10-3   134 COL 11-7
35 LAN 6-1   85 LAN 9-4   135 COL 13-2
36 LAN 6-3   86 COL 10-1   136 COL 13-3
37 COL 6-4   87 COL 10-4   137 COL 13-4
38 COL 5-0   88 LAN 10-2   138 COL 13-0
39 COL 6-5   89 LAN 9-5   139 LAN 12-3
40 LAN 6-0   90 LAN 10-1   140 LAN 13-2
41 LAN 6-4   91 COL 10-0   141 COL 12-7
42 COL 6-0   92 COL 9-6   142 LAN 13-1
43 LAN 7-2   93 LAN 9-8   143 COL 11-8
44 COL 7-2   94 COL 11-2   144 COL 14-2
45 COL 7-3   95 LAN 10-3   145 COL 10-9
46 LAN 7-1   96 COL 10-5   146 LAN 11-10
47 COL 7-1   97 COL 9-7   147 LAN 11-6
48 COL 7-4   98 COL 11-3   148 LAN 12-5
49 LAN 7-3   99 LAN 10-0   149 COL 13-5
50 LAN 7-6   100 COL 11-4   150 LAN 13-0

 

Contest Rules:  Guess "over" or "under" on the five questions below.  You must also give confidence points to each guess.  The guess you have the most confidence in you give 5 points, then 4 points ... down to 1 point for the guess you have the least amount of confidence in.  So you must have a guess of 5,4,3,2,1.  If you get a guess correct you get the number of confidence points you wagered on that guess.  A perfect score would be 5+4+3+2+1=15 points.  The person with the most points for the day wins the number of confidence points they guessed correctly.  If there is a tie then the following tie-breaker will be used (1. Guessing the correct team to win, 2. Closest to the score ranking in the table, 3. Person who submits their pick first).  Over/Under points will not be shared.  Points will be kept track of on a monthly basis then reset (with possibly a different contest type) at the end of the month.  You can also win bonus points for correctly guessing the final score from the list of scores in the large table above.  The nightly winner will be the person(s) with the most over/under points.  If you guess the score correctly you get a bonus of whatever number the final score is in the table.  Nobody has to guess the final score correctly to win points.  If any player listed in an over/under question does not play then that question gets thrown out of the contest.


April Winner: keithc13 108 points

May Leaderboard:

1. Xeifrank 78
2. LA Taco 38
3t. MammothDodger 37
3t. nolander 37
5t. BFDC 26
5t. WGiles24 26
7. keithc13 23
8. David Young 13
9. Joey Joe 12
10. G.Scott 9

 

Over/Under Questions

A. Total Runs Scored: 6.5
B. Chad Billingsley strikeouts: 6.5
C. Carlos Gonzalez minus Andre Ethier total bases: 0.5
D. Total hits both teams combined: 13.5
E. Dodgers runs minus Rockies runs: 0.5

 

Sample Answer: 2AU 3BO, 5CO, 4DU, 1EU, #21 LAN 5-3

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join True Blue LA

You must be a member of True Blue LA to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at True Blue LA. You should read them.

Join True Blue LA

You must be a member of True Blue LA to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at True Blue LA. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker