FanPost

Rockies vs Dodgers, May 31st Simulation + Contest

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Rockies and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.   Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Tuesday at 12:45 AM)

Vis Pitcher Home Pitcher Vegas Favorite Vegas Win% Vegas O/U Sim Fave Win% Sim O/U
Clay Mortensen Ted Lilly Dodgers 53.16% 7.4 50.90% 8.89

 

1 LAN 4-3   51 COL 8-4   101 COL 11-2
2 LAN 3-2   52 COL 1-0   102 LAN 10-5
3 LAN 5-4   53 COL 8-2   103 LAN 10-1
4 COL 4-3   54 COL 8-5   104 COL 10-7
5 COL 3-2   55 LAN 8-3   105 COL 11-5
6 LAN 2-1   56 LAN 5-0   106 LAN 10-9
7 LAN 6-5   57 LAN 8-4   107 COL 10-8
8 COL 5-4   58 LAN 7-1   108 COL 11-1
9 LAN 4-2   59 COL 8-6   109 LAN 11-4
10 COL 4-2   60 COL 5-0   110 LAN 9-0
11 COL 5-3   61 LAN 8-2   111 COL 12-3
12 LAN 5-3   62 COL 8-7   112 COL 11-6
13 LAN 3-1   63 LAN 8-5   113 LAN 11-3
14 COL 2-1   64 LAN 6-0   114 LAN 10-6
15 LAN 5-2   65 COL 9-2   115 LAN 10-7
16 COL 3-1   66 COL 8-1   116 LAN 11-2
17 COL 5-2   67 COL 9-3   117 COL 12-5
18 COL 6-5   68 COL 9-4   118 LAN 11-5
19 LAN 4-1   69 LAN 8-6   119 COL 12-4
20 COL 6-4   70 COL 9-5   120 LAN 10-8
21 LAN 6-4   71 COL 6-0   121 COL 11-7
22 COL 6-3   72 LAN 8-1   122 COL 10-9
23 LAN 6-3   73 LAN 9-8   123 COL 10-0
24 LAN 7-6   74 LAN 9-3   124 LAN 11-1
25 COL 4-1   75 LAN 9-4   125 LAN 10-0
26 COL 6-2   76 COL 7-0   126 COL 12-2
27 LAN 6-2   77 COL 9-6   127 COL 12-6
28 LAN 5-1   78 LAN 9-2   128 COL 12-1
29 COL 5-1   79 COL 9-1   129 COL 11-0
30 COL 7-4   80 COL 10-3   130 LAN 12-2
31 COL 7-3   81 COL 10-4   131 LAN 12-3
32 COL 7-2   82 LAN 7-0   132 COL 13-3
33 COL 7-5   83 LAN 9-6   133 LAN 11-6
34 LAN 7-5   84 COL 9-7   134 LAN 12-4
35 LAN 7-3   85 COL 10-2   135 COL 11-8
36 COL 7-6   86 LAN 9-5   136 LAN 12-5
37 LAN 7-4   87 COL 10-5   137 COL 13-4
38 COL 6-1   88 LAN 9-1   138 COL 13-2
39 LAN 3-0   89 COL 9-8   139 COL 13-5
40 LAN 1-0   90 LAN 9-7   140 LAN 11-7
41 LAN 2-0   91 LAN 10-2   141 COL 11-9
42 LAN 6-1   92 COL 8-0   142 LAN 11-9
43 COL 3-0   93 COL 11-4   143 COL 12-7
44 LAN 7-2   94 LAN 10-3   144 LAN 13-3
45 LAN 4-0   95 COL 10-1   145 LAN 12-1
46 COL 2-0   96 LAN 8-0   146 LAN 11-10
47 LAN 8-7   97 LAN 10-4   147 LAN 11-8
48 COL 8-3   98 COL 10-6   148 COL 14-4
49 COL 7-1   99 COL 11-3   149 LAN 13-4
50 COL 4-0   100 COL 9-0   150 COL 11-10

 

Contest Rules:  Guess "over" or "under" on the five questions below.  You must also give confidence points to each guess.  The guess you have the most confidence in you give 5 points, then 4 points ... down to 1 point for the guess you have the least amount of confidence in.  So you must have a guess of 5,4,3,2,1.  If you get a guess correct you get the number of confidence points you wagered on that guess.  A perfect score would be 5+4+3+2+1=15 points.  The person with the most points for the day wins the number of confidence points they guessed correctly.  If there is a tie then the following tie-breaker will be used (1. Guessing the correct team to win, 2. Closest to the score ranking in the table, 3. Person who submits their pick first).  Over/Under points will not be shared.  Points will be kept track of on a monthly basis then reset (with possibly a different contest type) at the end of the month.  You can also win bonus points for correctly guessing the final score from the list of scores in the large table above.  The nightly winner will be the person(s) with the most over/under points.  If you guess the score correctly you get a bonus of whatever number the final score is in the table.  Nobody has to guess the final score correctly to win points.  If any player listed in an over/under question does not play then that question gets thrown out of the contest.


April Winner: keithc13 108 points

May Leaderboard:

1. Xeifrank 78
2. MammothDodger 52
3. LA Taco 38
4. nolander 37
5t. BFDC 26
5t. WGiles24 26
7. keithc13 23
8. David Young 13
9. Joey Joe 12
10. G.Scott 9

 

Over/Under Questions

A. Total Runs Scored: 7.5
B. Ted Lilly HRs allowed: 0.5
C. Clay Mortensen strikeouts: 3.5
D. Andre Ethier hits minus times struck out: 0.5
E. Rockies number of relief pitchers used: 3.5

 

Sample Answer: 2AU 3BO, 5CO, 4DU, 1EU, #21 LAN 5-3


Contest Results/Picks Via Google Docs.

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