Cubs vs Dodgers, May 4th Simulation + Contest

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Cubs and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.   Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Wednesday at 12:15 AM)

Contest Rules:  Guess "over" or "under" on the five questions below.  You must also give confidence points to each guess.  The guess you have the most confidence in you give 5 points, then 4 points ... down to 1 point for the guess you have the least amount of confidence in.  So you must have a guess of 5,4,3,2,1.  If you get a guess correct you get the number of confidence points you wagered on that guess.  A perfect score would be 5+4+3+2+1=15 points.  The person with the most points for the day wins the number of confidence points they guessed correctly.  If there is a tie then the following tie-breaker will be used (1. Guessing the correct team to win, 2. Closest to the score ranking in the table, 3. Person who submits their pick first).  Over/Under points will not be shared.  Points will be kept track of on a monthly basis then reset (with possibly a different contest type) at the end of the month.  You can also win bonus points for correctly guessing the final score from the list of scores in the large table above.  The nightly winner will be the person(s) with the most over/under points.  If you guess the score correctly you get a bonus of whatever number the final score is in the table.  Nobody has to guess the final score correctly to win points.  If any player listed in an over/under question does not play then that question gets thrown out of the contest.

April Winner: keithc13 108 points

May Leaderboard:

1t. WGiles24 15
1t. nolander 15
3. Xeifrank 14

Over/Under Questions:

A. Dodgers runs minus Cubs runs: 0.5
B. T.Lilly strikeouts minus C.Zambrano strikeouts: 0.5
C. Andre Ethier hitting streak: 29.5
D. Dodgers extra base hits: 2.5
E. Dodgers bullpen total pitches: 44.5

Sample Answer: 2AU 3BO, 5CO, 4DU, 1EU, #21 LAN 5-3

Contest Picks/Results Via Google Docs