Matt Kemp celebrates the first 20 games (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)
Ever since Matt Kemp showed up on May 28, 2006 he's been getting off to fast starts. Who can forget his memorable splash when he slugged seven home runs in his first 20 games? Or his blazing start to 2010 when we proclaimed him all world before the month of April was even done? Or his equally fast start to this season, his fastest start ever.
Which got me thinking, does he always do this? So I ran his numbers for the first 20 games of each season to see if I could find a pattern. The answer would appear to be Yes. Only in 2008 was he below normal, every other year he was significantly better then his career numbers by large margins.
Matt Kemp did not play his first game in 2006 until May 28th, in 2007 he played five games in April but then did not finish his 20 count until June. I arbitrarily used 20 games going in with no preset convictions other then knowing he had a fast start to his career in 2006 and his last two Aprils. I was a bit surprised he did the same thing in 2007 and 2009. I could have used 25 games, I could have used 30, I simply choose to use 20. This is not science, I was simply curious what his 20 game starts looked like.
Year PA Hr BA OB% Slug% OPS 2006 75 7 0.318 0.36 0.667 1.027 2007 56 1 0.431 0.464 0.529 0.993 2008 69 1 0.273 0.304 0.439 0.743 2009 83 3 0.306 0.386 0.556 0.942 2010 96 7 0.294 0.354 0.586 0.940 2011 84 4 0.411 0.488 0.644 1.132 Career 0.289 0.340 0.477 0.817
Is Matt Kemp strictly a spring flower who opens his petals in glorious promise only to wither under the hot Los Angeles sun? Only time will tell, it just seems that at this time every year, Dodger fans think they have the best centerfielder in baseball. Contract talk always centers around what a bargain he'd be if we had signed him the previous August to an extension.
We know Matt Kemp is good, the question remains can Matt Kemp be great for a whole summer. All hitters will have hot and cold streaks, just seemed curious to me that Matt's best streaks are at the start of the season. No one is expecting an OPS over 1.000 or probably over .900 but this team needs him to stave off the summer time blues and perform all year or the season will fold up with him.
That is a lot of pressure to put on the twenty six year old, and it is probably not fair, but when your lineup has the likes of Loney, Miles, Carroll, Barajas, (Sands-Gibbons-Gwynn) it is what it is.
One final note: in games 21 - 32 in 2011, his OPS = .770, and you might have noticed we are not scoring many runs.
Which Matt Kemp shows up for the rest of 2011?
Has Matt Kemp matured to the point that 2011 will be his greatest season. (190 votes)
This is just another head fake and as great as his start to 2011 has been the fall will be just as dramatic (33 votes)
Matt Kemp will level out and end up close to his career norm (138 votes)
361 total votes