FanPost

Tigers vs Dodgers, June 20th Simulation + Contest

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Tigers and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.   Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Sunday at 10:30 PM)

Vis Pitcher Home Pitcher Vegas Favorite Vegas Win% Vegas O/U Sim Fave Win% Sim O/U
Brad Penny Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 59.43% 7.0 63.42% 7.33

 

1 LAN 3-2   51 DET 7-4   101 DET 10-4
2 LAN 2-1   52 LAN 8-0   102 DET 10-5
3 LAN 4-3   53 DET 7-2   103 LAN 12-1
4 LAN 3-1   54 DET 7-5   104 LAN 9-7
5 LAN 4-2   55 LAN 7-5   105 DET 10-6
6 DET 3-2   56 DET 5-0   106 LAN 12-2
7 LAN 4-1   57 LAN 9-1   107 DET 11-3
8 DET 2-1   58 DET 7-6   108 DET 9-8
9 LAN 5-4   59 LAN 9-2   109 DET 10-1
10 LAN 1-0   60 DET 7-1   110 DET 11-2
11 LAN 2-0   61 LAN 8-4   111 LAN 12-0
12 DET 4-3   62 DET 8-3   112 LAN 11-5
13 LAN 3-0   63 LAN 9-3   113 LAN 12-3
14 LAN 5-2   64 LAN 8-7   114 DET 9-0
15 LAN 5-3   65 DET 8-4   115 LAN 10-6
16 LAN 4-0   66 LAN 8-5   116 DET 11-1
17 LAN 5-1   67 DET 8-2   117 DET 11-5
18 DET 3-1   68 LAN 9-0   118 DET 11-4
19 DET 4-2   69 DET 8-5   119 DET 10-7
20 DET 5-4   70 DET 6-0   120 LAN 13-2
21 LAN 6-5   71 LAN 9-4   121 LAN 13-1
22 LAN 5-0   72 DET 8-1   122 LAN 12-4
23 DET 1-0   73 LAN 10-1   123 DET 10-8
24 DET 5-3   74 LAN 10-2   124 LAN 10-9
25 LAN 6-2   75 DET 8-6   125 LAN 13-0
26 LAN 6-1   76 LAN 8-6   126 DET 12-2
27 LAN 6-3   77 DET 9-3   127 LAN 10-7
28 DET 4-1   78 DET 9-2   128 LAN 11-6
29 DET 5-2   79 LAN 10-3   129 DET 12-3
30 DET 2-0   80 LAN 10-0   130 DET 10-0
31 LAN 6-0   81 DET 8-7   131 DET 11-6
32 LAN 6-4   82 DET 7-0   132 LAN 13-3
33 LAN 7-1   83 DET 9-4   133 LAN 11-7
34 LAN 7-2   84 LAN 9-5   134 DET 12-5
35 DET 6-4   85 LAN 11-1   135 DET 12-4
36 DET 6-3   86 DET 9-5   136 DET 10-9
37 DET 6-5   87 LAN 11-2   137 LAN 14-2
38 DET 3-0   88 LAN 10-4   138 LAN 12-5
39 DET 5-1   89 DET 9-1   139 LAN 14-1
40 LAN 7-3   90 DET 9-6   140 LAN 10-8
41 DET 6-2   91 LAN 11-3   141 LAN 13-4
42 LAN 7-6   92 DET 9-7   142 DET 11-7
43 LAN 7-0   93 LAN 10-5   143 DET 12-1
44 LAN 7-4   94 LAN 9-6   144 LAN 14-0
45 DET 4-0   95 LAN 9-8   145 DET 11-0
46 LAN 8-1   96 LAN 11-0   146 DET 11-8
47 LAN 8-2   97 DET 10-3   147 LAN 14-3
48 DET 7-3   98 DET 10-2   148 LAN 12-6
49 LAN 8-3   99 DET 8-0   149 LAN 13-5
50 DET 6-1   100 LAN 11-4   150 DET 13-4

 

Contest Rules:  Guess "over" or "under" on the five questions below.  You must also give confidence points to each guess.  The guess you have the most confidence in you give 5 points, then 4 points ... down to 1 point for the guess you have the least amount of confidence in.  So you must have a guess of 5,4,3,2,1.  If you get a guess correct you get the number of confidence points you wagered on that guess.  A perfect score would be 5+4+3+2+1=15 points.  The person with the most points for the day wins the number of confidence points they guessed correctly.  If there is a tie then the following tie-breaker will be used (1. Guessing the correct team to win, 2. Closest to the score ranking in the table, 3. Person who submits their pick first).  Over/Under points will not be shared.  Points will be kept track of on a monthly basis then reset (with possibly a different contest type) at the end of the month.  You can also win bonus points for correctly guessing the final score from the list of scores in the large table above.  The nightly winner will be the person(s) with the most over/under points.  If you guess the score correctly you get a bonus of whatever number the final score is in the table.  Nobody has to guess the final score correctly to win points.  If any player listed in an over/under question does not play then that question gets thrown out of the contest.


April Winner: keithc13 108 points

May Winner: WGiles24 87 points

June Leaderboard:

1. BFDC 41
2. Xeifrank 38
3. WGiles24 36
4. Dodgermanramon 26
5. David Young 14
6t. keithc13 11
6t. MammothDodger 11
8. LA Taco 10

 

Over/Under Questions

A. Total runs scored: 6.5
B. Clayton Kershaw Strikeouts: 7.5
C. Brad Penny Strikeouts: 3.5
D. Penny walks plus hits, minus Kershaw walks plus hits: 2.5
E. Miguel Cabrera total bases minus Andre Ethier total bases: 0.5

 

Sample Answer: 2AU 3BO, 5CO, 4DU, 1EU, #21 LAN 5-3



Results/Picks

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