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Is Matt Kemp Padding His Stats?

In basketball you have the guy who purposely misses the easy put back to pad his rebounding stats.  Baseball's version of this could be the player who steals easy bases when the game is out of reach (low leverage situations) while the defense has their guard down.  I looked at Matt Kemp's last 14 stolen bases to see how important any of these stolen bases were.  Not a perfect science for determining stat padding, but it atleast makes an interesting narrative.

In reverse order:
6/29 steals 3rd off of S.Baker, (WPA 0.007, Leverage 1.88)
*6/22 steals 2nd off of R.Porcello, (WPA 0.022, Leverage 1.67)
6/21 steals 3rd off of D.Purcey, (WPA 0.000, Leverage 0.08)
6/21 steals 2nd off of D.Purcey, (WPA 0.001, Leverage 0.04)
6/20 steals 3rd off of D.Schlereth, (WPA 0.012, Leverage 0.38)
6/19 steals 2nd off of B.Norris, (WPA 0.014, Leverage 1.01)
6/14 steals 2nd off of F.Cordero, (WPA 0.013, Leverage 2.43)
6/13 steals 2nd off of F.Cordero, (WPA 0.014, Leverage 3.35)
5/30 steals 2nd off of J.Hammel, (WPA 0.005, Leverage 0.38)
5/23 steals 2nd off of J.Fulchino, (WPA 0.006, Leverage 0.39)
5/11 steals 2nd off of J.Veras, (WPA 0.011, Leverage 0.67)
*5/7 steals 2nd off of R.Igarashi, (WPA 0.054, Leverage 2.52)
5/3 steal 2nd off of R.Dempster, (WPA 0.011, Leverage 0.76)
*5/2 steals 2nd off of J.Russell, (WPA 0.028, Leverage 1.78)

So we have three steals that I would consider important (*), with the May 7th steal obviously being the leader.  That stolen base gave the Dodgers an added 5.4% chance of winning that game.  Which is a little bit more than the difference between playing a game at home or at a neutral site as far as win probability goes.  Anything under
a win probability added of 0.01 is an unimportant stolen base in my opinion.  Kemp has five of those during his 14 consecutive stolen base streak.  In fact three out of his last four steals have been pretty meaningless.  The one that really stands out to me as not only a meaningless stolen base, but also as a stupid attempt is the one from
yesterday's game where he stole third base with 2 outs.  As the tying run on 2nd base with two outs and a leverage index of 1.88 (1.0 is average) Kemp stole third base, pretty much risking a chance to tie the game on a hit for the added 0.007 of win probability added.  Hey, as long as you don't get caught it doesn't matter - but you better make sure you don't get caught, otherwise you will have Larry Bowa Don Mattingly breathing down your neck and Jeff Kent Trent Oeltjen parking a trash can in front of your locker.

So is Kemp trying to pad his stats, cherry picking easy and low leverage situations?  Yeah, probably a little bit (esp of late).  But good luck trying to tame this wild stallion and in a season where our team sucks, rooting for Matt Kemp to reach the 40/40 milestone is one of the few things we have to follow excitedly.

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"Fast just got Faster"

by BFDC on Jun 30, 2011 12:06 PM PDT reply actions  

Great research

I’m all for Kemp padding his stats, with the reason you said in your last line.

This also reminded me when Ricky Davis dribbled the ball to the opposing team’s hoop to purposely miss so he can get his triple-double.

by Julio Nievas on Jun 30, 2011 12:09 PM PDT reply actions  

Oh man, that was bad. Also, against the rules.

A few of his Cavs teammates wanted to kill him.

by Eric Stephen on Jun 30, 2011 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

I am guess guessing here

but I bet the vast majority of SBs are in low WPA, low leverage situations.

@davidyoungtbla - The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Jun 30, 2011 12:50 PM PDT reply actions  

Would make for some good research. Find the stolen base percentage based on either the potential WPA or leverage index. Teams will obviously be defending better against the steal in a higher WPA situation.

by Xeifrank on Jun 30, 2011 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

I was told that Kemp stole third without a throw yesterday (maybe even standing up – I might be misremembering) – anyway, obviously there wasn’t much to gain from the steal, but if the Twins are handing him the base, is he not allowed to take it? Padding his stats implies some sort of malevolent motive, and considering he’s been effective at the steals, seems not worth worrying about.

by JonWeisman on Jun 30, 2011 2:16 PM PDT reply actions  

Not that I haven’t noticed that some of his steals seemed kind of beside the point …

by JonWeisman on Jun 30, 2011 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

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