FanPost

Dodgers vs Phillies, June 7th Simulation + De la Contest

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Phillies using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.   Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Tuesday at 12:01 AM)

Vis Pitcher Home Pitcher Vegas Favorite Vegas Win% Vegas O/U Sim Fave Win% Sim O/U
Rubby De la Rosa Roy Oswalt Phillies 62.89% 8.0 67.47% 8.62

 

1 PHI 3-2   51 PHI 8-4   101 PHI 11-5
2 PHI 4-3   52 PHI 9-1   102 PHI 10-9
3 PHI 2-1   53 LAN 7-6   103 PHI 12-3
4 PHI 5-4   54 LAN 7-4   104 PHI 10-7
5 PHI 4-2   55 PHI 8-0   105 LAN 10-5
6 PHI 3-1   56 PHI 9-3   106 PHI 12-4
7 PHI 5-2   57 PHI 8-5   107 LAN 10-3
8 PHI 4-1   58 LAN 3-0   108 LAN 7-0
9 LAN 3-2   59 LAN 7-3   109 PHI 12-0
10 PHI 6-5   60 PHI 9-4   110 LAN 9-1
11 LAN 4-3   61 LAN 6-1   111 LAN 10-4
12 PHI 5-3   62 LAN 7-2   112 PHI 13-2
13 PHI 5-1   63 PHI 8-6   113 PHI 12-5
14 PHI 6-3   64 LAN 4-0   114 PHI 11-6
15 LAN 2-1   65 PHI 10-1   115 LAN 8-0
16 PHI 6-2   66 PHI 10-2   116 LAN 10-7
17 PHI 1-0   67 PHI 10-3   117 PHI 10-8
18 PHI 3-0   68 LAN 8-5   118 LAN 10-6
19 PHI 6-1   69 LAN 8-6   119 LAN 10-2
20 LAN 4-2   70 PHI 9-0   120 LAN 11-4
21 LAN 5-4   71 PHI 9-5   121 LAN 11-3
22 PHI 4-0   72 LAN 8-4   122 PHI 13-1
23 PHI 2-0   73 LAN 7-1   123 PHI 13-3
24 PHI 6-4   74 PHI 10-4   124 LAN 10-1
25 LAN 3-1   75 LAN 8-2   125 PHI 13-4
26 PHI 7-6   76 LAN 8-3   126 PHI 13-0
27 LAN 5-3   77 PHI 9-8   127 LAN 10-9
28 PHI 7-2   78 LAN 8-7   128 LAN 10-8
29 PHI 5-0   79 PHI 11-2   129 LAN 11-2
30 PHI 7-1   80 PHI 9-6   130 PHI 12-6
31 PHI 7-3   81 LAN 5-0   131 LAN 11-6
32 LAN 5-2   82 PHI 11-3   132 PHI 14-2
33 PHI 7-4   83 PHI 10-0   133 LAN 11-5
34 LAN 6-5   84 PHI 11-1   134 PHI 13-5
35 PHI 6-0   85 LAN 9-4   135 PHI 11-7
36 LAN 6-4   86 LAN 9-5   136 PHI 14-1
37 LAN 4-1   87 LAN 8-1   137 LAN 12-4
38 PHI 8-2   88 LAN 6-0   138 LAN 11-7
39 LAN 6-3   89 PHI 10-5   139 PHI 14-3
40 PHI 8-3   90 LAN 9-3   140 PHI 14-5
41 PHI 8-1   91 PHI 11-4   141 PHI 14-4
42 PHI 7-0   92 PHI 9-7   142 LAN 12-5
43 PHI 7-5   93 LAN 9-6   143 LAN 9-0
44 LAN 6-2   94 LAN 9-2   144 PHI 11-8
45 LAN 1-0   95 LAN 9-7   145 LAN 12-6
46 PHI 9-2   96 PHI 12-2   146 LAN 11-1
47 PHI 8-7   97 PHI 12-1   147 PHI 11-10
48 LAN 7-5   98 PHI 10-6   148 PHI 12-7
49 LAN 2-0   99 PHI 11-0   149 PHI 15-3
50 LAN 5-1   100 LAN 9-8   150 PHI 13-6

 

Contest Rules:  Guess "over" or "under" on the five questions below.  You must also give confidence points to each guess.  The guess you have the most confidence in you give 5 points, then 4 points ... down to 1 point for the guess you have the least amount of confidence in.  So you must have a guess of 5,4,3,2,1.  If you get a guess correct you get the number of confidence points you wagered on that guess.  A perfect score would be 5+4+3+2+1=15 points.  The person with the most points for the day wins the number of confidence points they guessed correctly.  If there is a tie then the following tie-breaker will be used (1. Guessing the correct team to win, 2. Closest to the score ranking in the table, 3. Person who submits their pick first).  Over/Under points will not be shared.  Points will be kept track of on a monthly basis then reset (with possibly a different contest type) at the end of the month.  You can also win bonus points for correctly guessing the final score from the list of scores in the large table above.  The nightly winner will be the person(s) with the most over/under points.  If you guess the score correctly you get a bonus of whatever number the final score is in the table.  Nobody has to guess the final score correctly to win points.  If any player listed in an over/under question does not play then that question gets thrown out of the contest.


April Winner: keithc13 108 points

May Winner: WGiles24 87 points

June Leaderboard:

1. WGiles24  24
2. David Young 14
3t. keithc13 11
3t. BFDC 11

 

Over/Under Questions

A. Total runs scored: 7.5
B. Rubby De la Rosa Strikeouts: 3.5
C. Rubby De La Rosa Walks plus Hits: 6.5
D. Dee Gordon runs scored: 0.5
E. Roy Oswalt Strikeouts: 6.5

 

Sample Answer: 2AU 3BO, 5CO, 4DU, 1EU, #21 LAN 5-3


Contest Results/Picks Via Google Docs.

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