Dodgers vs Giants, July 20th Simulation + Contest
by Xeifrank on Jul 20, 2011 12:32 AM PDT
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PrintJuly Rules:
There will be eight questions. Five of them will have even money odds, the other three will have higher paying odds. You may answer any amount of the questions as you'd like and wager any amount as long as your wagers don't go over your remaining bankroll. Every person starts out with 100 points to wager with. A wrong guess loses points and a correct guess wins points (odds will always be whole number). You still pick the game score from the table of scores. If you pick the correct winning team in your game score guess, you get 5 points (no points lost for wrong guess) and if you get the correct score you win the number of points of the ranking of the score in the table. For questions where a starting position player is the answer, I will allow guesses of "starting SS" instead of "Dee Gordon". But if you guess a players name, then that is your final guess. I will keep a Google Docs spreadsheet keeping track of everyone's bankroll. As people play for the first time, I will add them to the spreadsheet. A minimum of 250 units must be risked over the month to be eligible for the title.
Steps:
1. Pick Game Score (ie - #27 LAN 6-2)
2. Wager on any of the 8 questions (don't wager more than current bankroll).
Example
A. O/U Total Runs Scored: 7.5 (1:1)
B. O/U Chad Billingsley Strikeouts: 5.5 (1:1)
C: O/U Andre Ethier Total Bases: 1.5 (1:1)
D: O/U Dee Gordon Stolen Bases: 0.5 (1:1)
E: O/U Number of Dodgers bullpen pitchers used: 3.5 (1:1)
F: Player to score Dodgers first run: (2:1)
G: Dodgers Runs Scored > 6.5: (3:1)
H: Matt Kemp RBIs > 3.5 (5:1)
Possible Entry #25 LAN 6-2
4AO
6CU
5EU
8F Gordon
3G
2H
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Wednesday at 12:01 AM)
| Vis Pitcher | Home Pitcher | Vegas Favorite | Vegas Win% | Vegas O/U | Sim Fave Win% | Sim O/U |
| Clayton Kershaw | Tim Lincecum | Giants | 55.85% | 5.7 | 54.59% | 6.14 |
| 1 SF 2-1 | 51 LAN 7-0 | 101 SF 10-5 | ||
| 2 SF 3-2 | 52 LAN 7-4 | 102 LAN 10-5 | ||
| 3 SF 1-0 | 53 LAN 8-2 | 103 LAN 11-2 | ||
| 4 LAN 2-1 | 54 LAN 8-1 | 104 LAN 9-7 | ||
| 5 SF 4-3 | 55 SF 8-1 | 105 LAN 11-4 | ||
| 6 LAN 3-2 | 56 SF 7-4 | 106 SF 9-6 | ||
| 7 LAN 1-0 | 57 LAN 7-5 | 107 LAN 11-3 | ||
| 8 SF 3-1 | 58 LAN 8-3 | 108 SF 11-4 | ||
| 9 LAN 3-1 | 59 SF 8-0 | 109 LAN 11-0 | ||
| 10 SF 2-0 | 60 SF 8-2 | 110 SF 11-3 | ||
| 11 LAN 2-0 | 61 SF 8-3 | 111 LAN 10-6 | ||
| 12 LAN 4-2 | 62 LAN 7-6 | 112 SF 12-1 | ||
| 13 LAN 4-3 | 63 SF 7-5 | 113 LAN 12-1 | ||
| 14 SF 4-2 | 64 LAN 8-0 | 114 SF 9-7 | ||
| 15 SF 3-0 | 65 LAN 8-4 | 115 LAN 11-5 | ||
| 16 SF 4-1 | 66 SF 9-2 | 116 LAN 9-8 | ||
| 17 SF 5-4 | 67 LAN 9-2 | 117 LAN 12-3 | ||
| 18 LAN 4-1 | 68 SF 8-4 | 118 LAN 12-2 | ||
| 19 LAN 3-0 | 69 SF 9-0 | 119 LAN 10-7 | ||
| 20 SF 4-0 | 70 LAN 9-1 | 120 SF 12-0 | ||
| 21 SF 5-2 | 71 SF 9-1 | 121 SF 10-7 | ||
| 22 LAN 5-2 | 72 SF 9-3 | 122 SF 11-5 | ||
| 23 SF 5-1 | 73 LAN 8-5 | 123 SF 12-4 | ||
| 24 LAN 5-3 | 74 SF 8-7 | 124 SF 12-3 | ||
| 25 LAN 5-1 | 75 LAN 9-3 | 125 SF 12-2 | ||
| 26 LAN 4-0 | 76 LAN 8-6 | 126 LAN 12-0 | ||
| 27 SF 5-3 | 77 LAN 9-0 | 127 LAN 12-4 | ||
| 28 LAN 5-4 | 78 SF 9-4 | 128 SF 10-6 | ||
| 29 SF 6-5 | 79 SF 8-5 | 129 LAN 13-2 | ||
| 30 SF 5-0 | 80 LAN 10-2 | 130 LAN 11-6 | ||
| 31 LAN 5-0 | 81 SF 10-1 | 131 SF 13-2 | ||
| 32 LAN 6-2 | 82 LAN 10-1 | 132 SF 10-9 | ||
| 33 SF 6-1 | 83 SF 8-6 | 133 LAN 12-5 | ||
| 34 LAN 6-1 | 84 SF 10-2 | 134 LAN 10-8 | ||
| 35 SF 6-2 | 85 LAN 9-4 | 135 SF 13-1 | ||
| 36 LAN 6-3 | 86 SF 10-0 | 136 SF 14-2 | ||
| 37 SF 6-3 | 87 LAN 9-6 | 137 SF 13-3 | ||
| 38 LAN 6-4 | 88 SF 9-5 | 138 SF 13-0 | ||
| 39 SF 6-0 | 89 LAN 8-7 | 139 LAN 13-3 | ||
| 40 LAN 6-5 | 90 SF 10-3 | 140 SF 11-6 | ||
| 41 LAN 6-0 | 91 LAN 10-3 | 141 LAN 10-9 | ||
| 42 SF 6-4 | 92 SF 11-1 | 142 SF 12-5 | ||
| 43 SF 7-1 | 93 LAN 9-5 | 143 LAN 13-4 | ||
| 44 LAN 7-2 | 94 LAN 10-4 | 144 LAN 11-9 | ||
| 45 SF 7-2 | 95 LAN 10-0 | 145 SF 11-7 | ||
| 46 LAN 7-1 | 96 SF 11-2 | 146 SF 11-10 | ||
| 47 SF 7-3 | 97 SF 11-0 | 147 SF 14-3 | ||
| 48 SF 7-6 | 98 SF 9-8 | 148 SF 14-1 | ||
| 49 LAN 7-3 | 99 SF 10-4 | 149 LAN 11-8 | ||
| 50 SF 7-0 | 100 LAN 11-1 | 150 SF 14-4 |
Actual Contest Questions
A. O/U Total Runs Scored: 5.5 (1:1)
B. O/U Kershaw plus Lincecum Strikeouts: 15.5 (1:1)
C. O/U Kershaw walks plus hits minus Lincecum walks plus hits: 0.5 (1:1)
D. O/U Gwynn plus Loney plus Kershaw (batting) RBIs 0.5 (1:1)
E. O/U Matt Kemp strikeouts: 1.5 (1:1)
F. (Prop bet) Dodgers score a run in the first three innings: (2:1)
G. (Prop bet) Clayton Kershaw gets a hit: (3:1)
H. (Prop bet) Tim Lincecum pitches CG Shutout: (5:1)
Sample Bet
#31 LAN 5-0
10AO
5CU
15DU
5H
Note: Prop bets are not over/unders. You either take the bet or you don't. In any question listing a player, that player must start for that question to be valid. 250 units must be risked to be eligible for contest title. Players in questions B,C,D,E,G,H must all start for that question to be valid.
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Comments
Leaderboard
Leaderboard
1. Phil Gurnee (260)
2. WGiles24 (210)
3. keithc13 (198)
4. David Young (130)
5. Xeifrank (115)
6. BFDC (90)
7. nolander (55)
8. Dodgermanramon (34)
9. G.Scott (5) << can bet max of 25
10. MammothDodger (-46) << can bet max of 25
by Xeifrank on Jul 20, 2011 12:37 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Brilliant – Watching G Scott fall from the top to the bottom in two days is a cautionary tale
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
absolutely
You never really understand a person until you consider things from his point of view--until you climb into his skin and walk around in it.
yea
not like your going to send out to goons to break my knee caps over points owed, I hope not at least ;-)
What me worry?
by MammothDodger on Jul 20, 2011 9:26 AM PDT up reply actions
27 SF 5-3
25BO
"Statistics are used much like a drunk uses a lamp post: for support, not illumination." - Vin Scully
Loney didn't start
So question D is off the books. I really thought he’d start today. Guess I will have be more careful about ass-u-ming such.
I think keithc
is still baking on a Florida panhandle beach somewhere, turning most of his body red instead of just a certain part.
@davidyoungtbla - The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
#7 LAN 1-0 UOUXO No-No-No
Username (Overall Total, Daily Total)
1. Phil Gurnee (315, 55)
2. WGiles24 (235, 25)
3. Xeifrank (215, 100)
4. keithc13 (198, 0)
5. David Young (130, 0)
6. Dodgermanramon (73, 39)
7. BFDC (55, -35)
8. nolander (55, 0)
9. G.Scott (30, 25)
10. MammothDodger (-59, -13) << can still wage 25 units
dang
pick the right team to win, hit the game score and still lose points. Darn CK why can’t you get a hit off of Timmy. Or dang D2X why did you not let Clayton move the runner up with a solid basehit, instead of pinch hitting to buunt!?!
What me worry?
by MammothDodger on Jul 21, 2011 8:24 AM PDT up reply actions
Picking a high probability score doesn’t payoff too much in this contest. To get back in this you probably need to hit a score from lower in the table. A “Hail Mary” pass of sorts.
I guess in the future I could put “fair” odds on all of the game scores – and people could risk units on it.
For example
- SF 2-1, 7:1
- SF 3-2, 8:1
.
. - LAN 5-0, 16:1
I wasn't complaining (well maybe about Donnie's move)
But I do like the idea of “fair odds”. Maybe make it a set bet, if you make a pick in the game score section you risk 5 (10 seems kind of steep) units.
What me worry?
by MammothDodger on Jul 21, 2011 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions
is the fair odds listed in your comment the actual results from your sim?
so SF 2-1 came out aprox 14000 times? and if so what would of the fair odds on LAN 1-0 been? Just curious.
What me worry?
by MammothDodger on Jul 21, 2011 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions
That was a guess
I will look it up at home tonight. The odds change slowly as you move down the table. I’d like to keep all odds as an integer value to keep the accounting easy. But 7:5 odds for nailing the #7 LAN 1-0 is not even close to fair odds. I may change it to fair odds with the free 5 unit bet being in play for game scores. I think that is a step in the right direction, just not sure when I can implement it.
Just looked it up
Number one most likely score occurred (SF 2-1) 6004 (out of 100k) times. Putting the odds (if I did this correctly) at around 15.7 to 1. The odds for the LAN 1-0 score that MD nailed was (2894 times) or 32.5 to 1 odds. Can you guys live with those kind of payouts if someone nails the score? It doesn’t happen often that someone nails the score. I’d say 1 or 2 times per month. Thoughts?
Options
Example: Someone picks #7 LAN 1-0 at 33:1 odds
A. They win (33 × 5) + 5 = 170 units
B. They win (33 × 5) = 165 (forget about if you picked the correct team to win)
C. They win (33 x B), where B is the amount they wager on game score.
D. They win (33 x B) + 5
F. Other?
Which option should we go with.
The answer is always E. Oh, wait.
@davidyoungtbla - The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Jul 21, 2011 10:34 PM PDT up reply actions
I like the b option, the 5 for picking correctly seems superfluousness
Seems to me you could implement it as of 7-20-2011. ;-)
What me worry?
by MammothDodger on Jul 21, 2011 11:01 PM PDT up reply actions
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