FanPost

DBacks vs Dodgers, July 29th Simulation + Contest

July Rules:
There will be eight questions. Five of them will have even money odds, the other three will have higher paying odds. You may answer any amount of the questions as you'd like and wager any amount as long as your wagers don't go over your remaining bankroll. Every person starts out with 100 points to wager with. A wrong guess loses points and a correct guess wins points (odds will always be whole number). You still pick the game score from the table of scores. Each game score has odds associated with it.  You will be given a free 5 unit bet on the game score.  If you pick the correct game score you win 5 times the odds for that score.  Try to make game score guesses unique, but there is no penalty for accidentally doing so.  For questions where a starting position player is the answer, I will allow guesses of "starting SS" instead of "Dee Gordon". But if you guess a players name, then that is your final guess.  I will keep a Google Docs spreadsheet keeping track of everyone's bankroll.  As people play for the first time, I will add them to the spreadsheet.  A minimum of 250 units must be risked over the month to be eligible for the title.

Steps:
1. Pick Game Score (ie - #27 LAN 6-2)
2. Wager on any of the 8 questions (don't wager more than current bankroll).

Example
A. O/U Total Runs Scored: 7.5 (1:1)
B. O/U Chad Billingsley Strikeouts: 5.5 (1:1)
C: O/U Andre Ethier Total Bases: 1.5 (1:1)
D: O/U Dee Gordon Stolen Bases: 0.5 (1:1)
E: O/U Number of Dodgers bullpen pitchers used: 3.5 (1:1)
F: Player to score Dodgers first run: (2:1)
G: Dodgers Runs Scored > 6.5: (3:1)
H: Matt Kemp RBIs > 3.5 (5:1)

Possible Entry #25 LAN 6-2
4AO
6CU
5EU
8F Gordon
3G
2H

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Friday at 12:15 AM)

Vis Pitcher Home Pitcher Vegas Favorite Vegas Win% Vegas O/U Sim Fave Win% Sim O/U
Josh Collmentor Ted Lilly DBacks 52.27% 7.1 51.20% 7.64

 

1 LAN 3-2 5:1   51 LAN 5-0 38:1   101 LAN 9-7 173:1
2 LAN 4-3 6:1   52 LAN 7-5 39:1   102 LAN 9-0 178:1
3 LAN 2-1 6:1   53 LAN 7-3 40:1   103 ARI 10-6 183:1
4 ARI 3-2 7:1   54 ARI 7-0 42:1   104 LAN 11-2 187:1
5 LAN 5-4 8:1   55 ARI 7-6 43:1   105 LAN 11-3 192:1
6 ARI 4-3 9:1   56 ARI 8-1 43:1   106 ARI 11-1 193:1
7 ARI 2-1 9:1   57 ARI 8-4 44:1   107 LAN 10-5 196:1
8 ARI 4-2 10:1   58 LAN 7-1 48:1   108 ARI 11-4 219:1
9 ARI 3-1 10:1   59 LAN 8-7 51:1   109 ARI 10-7 227:1
10 LAN 3-1 11:1   60 LAN 6-0 52:1   110 LAN 11-1 237:1
11 LAN 4-2 11:1   61 LAN 8-2 55:1   111 ARI 11-5 254:1
12 ARI 4-1 12:1   62 ARI 9-3 58:1   112 LAN 11-4 260:1
13 ARI 5-2 12:1   63 ARI 8-5 59:1   113 LAN 10-6 265:1
14 ARI 5-3 13:1   64 ARI 9-2 59:1   114 LAN 10-0 277:1
15 LAN 1-0 13:1   65 LAN 8-4 61:1   115 ARI 12-2 280:1
16 ARI 5-4 13:1   66 LAN 8-3 63:1   116 ARI 11-0 287:1
17 LAN 6-5 14:1   67 ARI 8-6 66:1   117 LAN 10-9 290:1
18 LAN 4-1 15:1   68 LAN 8-1 66:1   118 LAN 10-7 290:1
19 LAN 5-3 15:1   69 LAN 8-5 67:1   119 ARI 11-6 316:1
20 LAN 5-2 15:1   70 ARI 9-1 67:1   120 LAN 12-1 320:1
21 ARI 5-1 16:1   71 ARI 8-0 69:1   121 LAN 12-3 324:1
22 ARI 3-0 17:1   72 ARI 9-4 73:1   122 LAN 11-5 333:1
23 ARI 2-0 17:1   73 ARI 8-7 79:1   123 ARI 12-3 337:1
24 ARI 6-3 17:1   74 LAN 9-3 83:1   124 LAN 12-2 342:1
25 ARI 6-2 18:1   75 LAN 7-0 85:1   125 ARI 12-1 378:1
26 LAN 2-0 18:1   76 LAN 8-6 86:1   126 ARI 11-7 384:1
27 ARI 1-0 19:1   77 LAN 9-2 86:1   127 ARI 10-8 384:1
28 ARI 4-0 19:1   78 LAN 9-4 95:1   128 ARI 12-5 384:1
29 ARI 6-4 20:1   79 ARI 9-5 96:1   129 LAN 12-4 402:1
30 LAN 5-1 21:1   80 LAN 9-1 100:1   130 ARI 10-9 423:1
31 ARI 6-1 21:1   81 ARI 9-6 104:1   131 ARI 12-0 423:1
32 LAN 3-0 22:1   82 LAN 8-0 106:1   132 ARI 12-6 423:1
33 LAN 6-4 22:1   83 ARI 10-1 106:1   133 LAN 12-5 454:1
34 LAN 6-3 22:1   84 ARI 9-0 106:1   134 ARI 13-2 454:1
35 ARI 6-5 23:1   85 ARI 10-2 107:1   135 ARI 12-4 471:1
36 LAN 6-2 24:1   86 ARI 10-3 107:1   136 LAN 10-8 471:1
37 ARI 5-0 24:1   87 LAN 9-8 122:1   137 LAN 11-6 480:1
38 ARI 7-2 25:1   88 ARI 10-4 124:1   138 ARI 11-8 543:1
39 LAN 7-6 26:1   89 LAN 9-5 128:1   139 ARI 13-1 555:1
40 ARI 7-3 26:1   90 LAN 10-3 134:1   140 LAN 11-7 567:1
41 ARI 7-4 27:1   91 LAN 10-4 138:1   141 LAN 11-0 581:1
42 LAN 4-0 28:1   92 ARI 11-3 140:1   142 LAN 11-10 581:1
43 ARI 6-0 31:1   93 ARI 10-5 141:1   143 ARI 13-3 581:1
44 LAN 6-1 31:1   94 LAN 9-6 155:1   144 LAN 13-2 640:1
45 ARI 7-1 32:1   95 ARI 9-7 155:1   145 LAN 13-1 657:1
46 ARI 7-5 35:1   96 LAN 10-2 160:1   146 ARI 11-9 657:1
47 LAN 7-2 35:1   97 ARI 11-2 165:1   147 ARI 13-4 735:1
48 ARI 8-2 36:1   98 LAN 10-1 166:1   148 LAN 13-3 757:1
49 ARI 8-3 37:1   99 ARI 10-0 170:1   149 ARI 13-5 781:1
50 LAN 7-4 37:1   100 ARI 9-8 170:1   150 LAN 12-0 806:1

 

 

Actual Contest Questions

A. O/U Total Runs Scored: 7.0 (1:1)
B. O/U Lilly minus Collmenter Strikeouts: 1.5 (1:1)
C. O/U Matt Kemp minus Justin Upton Total Bases: 0.5 (1:1)
D. O/U Dodgers total number of hits: 8.5 (1:1)
E. O/U Dodgers number of relief pitchers used: 3.5 (1:1)

F. (Prop bet) More than 8.5 combined runs are scored: (2:1)
G. (Prop bet) Ted Lilly allows two or more HRs: (3:1)
H. (Prop bet) The Dodgers score five or six runs: (5:1)


Sample Bet
#32 LAN 3-0
10AO
5CU
15DU
20F

Note: Prop bets are not over/unders. You either take the bet or you don't. In any question listing a player, that player must start for that question to be valid.  250 units must be risked to be eligible for contest title.  Players in questions B,C,G must all start for that question to be valid.  Odds in the score table are the "true odds" divided by four.

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