Phillies vs Dodgers, August 10th Simulation + Contest
by Xeifrank on Aug 10, 2011 12:28 AM PDT
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PrintRules:
There will be eight questions. Five of them will have even money odds, the other three will have higher paying odds. You may answer any amount of the questions as you'd like and wager any amount as long as your wagers don't go over your remaining bankroll. Every person starts out with 100 points to wager with. A wrong guess loses points and a correct guess wins points (odds will always be whole number). You still pick the game score from the table of scores. Each game score has odds associated with it. You will be given a free 5 unit bet on the game score. If you pick the correct game score you win 5 times the odds for that score. Try to make game score guesses unique, but there is no penalty for accidentally doing so. For questions where a starting position player is the answer, I will allow guesses of "starting SS" instead of "Dee Gordon". But if you guess a players name, then that is your final guess. I will keep a Google Docs spreadsheet keeping track of everyone's bankroll. As people play for the first time, I will add them to the spreadsheet. A minimum of 250 units must be risked over the month to be eligible for the title.
Steps:
1. Pick Game Score (ie - #27 LAN 6-2)
2. Wager on any of the 8 questions (don't wager more than current bankroll).
Example
A. O/U Total Runs Scored: 7.5 (1:1)
B. O/U Chad Billingsley Strikeouts: 5.5 (1:1)
C: O/U Andre Ethier Total Bases: 1.5 (1:1)
D: O/U Dee Gordon Stolen Bases: 0.5 (1:1)
E: O/U Number of Dodgers bullpen pitchers used: 3.5 (1:1)
F: Player to score Dodgers first run: (2:1)
G: Dodgers Runs Scored > 6.5: (3:1)
H: Matt Kemp RBIs > 3.5 (5:1)
Possible Entry #25 LAN 6-2
4AO
6CU
5EU
8F Gordon
3G
2H
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Wednesday at 12:11 AM)
| Vis Pitcher | Home Pitcher | Vegas Favorite | Vegas Win% | Vegas O/U | Sim Fave Win% | Sim O/U |
| Vance Worley | Chad Billingsley | Phillies | 54.85% | 7.0 | 51.74% | 7.05 |
| 1 LAN 2-1 5:1 | 51 PHI 8-2 42:1 | 101 LAN 9-7 201:1 | ||
| 2 LAN 3-2 5:1 | 52 PHI 7-5 42:1 | 102 PHI 9-7 204:1 | ||
| 3 LAN 4-3 7:1 | 53 LAN 6-0 44:1 | 103 PHI 11-0 211:1 | ||
| 4 PHI 2-1 7:1 | 54 LAN 7-1 45:1 | 104 PHI 12-1 231:1 | ||
| 5 PHI 3-2 7:1 | 55 LAN 7-4 48:1 | 105 LAN 10-5 244:1 | ||
| 6 LAN 1-0 8:1 | 56 PHI 8-3 50:1 | 106 LAN 11-1 247:1 | ||
| 7 PHI 3-1 9:1 | 57 PHI 7-6 50:1 | 107 PHI 10-6 249:1 | ||
| 8 PHI 4-3 9:1 | 58 LAN 7-5 54:1 | 108 LAN 11-2 252:1 | ||
| 9 LAN 3-1 10:1 | 59 PHI 8-4 55:1 | 109 PHI 11-4 254:1 | ||
| 10 PHI 4-2 10:1 | 60 LAN 8-2 59:1 | 110 PHI 12-2 257:1 | ||
| 11 LAN 5-4 11:1 | 61 PHI 9-2 59:1 | 111 PHI 12-3 262:1 | ||
| 12 PHI 1-0 11:1 | 62 PHI 9-1 62:1 | 112 PHI 9-8 265:1 | ||
| 13 PHI 4-1 11:1 | 63 PHI 8-0 63:1 | 113 PHI 10-7 271:1 | ||
| 14 LAN 4-2 11:1 | 64 PHI 9-3 65:1 | 114 PHI 11-5 274:1 | ||
| 15 LAN 2-0 12:1 | 65 LAN 8-1 66:1 | 115 LAN 10-0 277:1 | ||
| 16 PHI 2-0 12:1 | 66 PHI 8-5 67:1 | 116 PHI 12-4 308:1 | ||
| 17 PHI 5-2 13:1 | 67 LAN 8-3 68:1 | 117 LAN 11-3 324:1 | ||
| 18 LAN 4-1 13:1 | 68 LAN 7-0 68:1 | 118 LAN 11-4 337:1 | ||
| 19 PHI 3-0 14:1 | 69 LAN 8-7 75:1 | 119 PHI 13-1 342:1 | ||
| 20 PHI 5-3 14:1 | 70 PHI 9-4 83:1 | 120 LAN 10-6 346:1 | ||
| 21 PHI 5-4 15:1 | 71 PHI 10-2 86:1 | 121 LAN 10-9 362:1 | ||
| 22 LAN 3-0 15:1 | 72 LAN 8-4 86:1 | 122 LAN 12-2 378:1 | ||
| 23 PHI 5-1 16:1 | 73 LAN 8-5 86:1 | 123 LAN 11-0 384:1 | ||
| 24 LAN 5-2 16:1 | 74 PHI 9-0 87:1 | 124 PHI 13-3 390:1 | ||
| 25 LAN 5-3 17:1 | 75 LAN 8-0 88:1 | 125 PHI 13-2 409:1 | ||
| 26 PHI 4-0 18:1 | 76 PHI 10-1 90:1 | 126 PHI 11-7 438:1 | ||
| 27 PHI 6-2 19:1 | 77 PHI 8-6 93:1 | 127 PHI 11-6 446:1 | ||
| 28 LAN 6-5 19:1 | 78 LAN 9-3 97:1 | 128 PHI 12-0 454:1 | ||
| 29 LAN 5-1 20:1 | 79 LAN 9-2 99:1 | 129 PHI 10-8 454:1 | ||
| 30 PHI 6-3 21:1 | 80 LAN 8-6 101:1 | 130 LAN 11-5 462:1 | ||
| 31 LAN 4-0 21:1 | 81 PHI 9-5 102:1 | 131 LAN 12-1 489:1 | ||
| 32 PHI 6-1 22:1 | 82 PHI 10-3 105:1 | 132 LAN 10-7 489:1 | ||
| 33 PHI 5-0 23:1 | 83 LAN 9-1 107:1 | 133 PHI 13-4 489:1 | ||
| 34 PHI 6-4 23:1 | 84 PHI 8-7 116:1 | 134 LAN 10-8 520:1 | ||
| 35 LAN 6-3 25:1 | 85 LAN 9-4 127:1 | 135 PHI 12-5 520:1 | ||
| 36 LAN 6-2 26:1 | 86 LAN 9-0 133:1 | 136 PHI 12-6 543:1 | ||
| 37 PHI 6-5 27:1 | 87 PHI 10-4 134:1 | 137 PHI 13-5 543:1 | ||
| 38 LAN 6-4 28:1 | 88 PHI 10-0 140:1 | 138 PHI 10-9 594:1 | ||
| 39 PHI 7-2 28:1 | 89 PHI 9-6 144:1 | 139 LAN 11-6 609:1 | ||
| 40 PHI 7-3 29:1 | 90 LAN 9-5 152:1 | 140 LAN 12-5 624:1 | ||
| 41 LAN 6-1 30:1 | 91 LAN 10-2 154:1 | 141 LAN 12-3 624:1 | ||
| 42 LAN 5-0 30:1 | 92 LAN 10-1 155:1 | 142 PHI 13-0 640:1 | ||
| 43 PHI 6-0 31:1 | 93 LAN 10-3 157:1 | 143 PHI 11-8 714:1 | ||
| 44 PHI 7-1 31:1 | 94 PHI 11-1 162:1 | 144 PHI 14-1 714:1 | ||
| 45 PHI 7-4 35:1 | 95 PHI 11-2 164:1 | 145 LAN 12-4 757:1 | ||
| 46 LAN 7-6 37:1 | 96 LAN 9-8 168:1 | 146 PHI 14-2 757:1 | ||
| 47 PHI 8-1 39:1 | 97 PHI 11-3 170:1 | 147 PHI 14-3 757:1 | ||
| 48 PHI 7-0 41:1 | 98 LAN 10-4 178:1 | 148 PHI 12-7 806:1 | ||
| 49 LAN 7-3 41:1 | 99 LAN 9-6 179:1 | 149 LAN 12-0 806:1 | ||
| 50 LAN 7-2 41:1 | 100 PHI 10-5 180:1 | 150 PHI 14-4 806:1 |
Actual Contest Questions
A. O/U Total Runs Scored: 6.5 (1:1)
B. O/U Vance Worley Strikeouts: 5.5 (1:1)
C. O/U Chad Billingsley K - BB : 2.5 (1:1)
D. O/U Dodgers extra base hits: 2.5 (1:1)
E. O/U Phillies runs minus Dodgers runs: 0.5 (1:1)
F. (Prop bet) Dodgers score a run in the first three innings: (2:1)
G. (Prop bet) Chad Billingsley gets a hit: (3:1)
H. (Prop bet) Chad Billingsley strikes out 8 or more: (5:1)
Sample Bet
#20 LAN 4-2
10AO
5CU
15DU
15G
Note: Prop bets are not over/unders. You either take the bet or you don't. In any question listing a player, that player must start for that question to be valid. 250 units must be risked to be eligible for contest title. Players in questions B,C,G,H must all start for that question to be valid. Odds in the score table are the "true odds" divided by four.
August Leaderboard Via Google Docs
27 comments
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Comments
Leaderboard
1. underdog (120)
2. henry-dekoyuer (85)
3. MammothDodger (80)
4. StolenMonkey86 (78)
5. jrock247 (70)
5. David Young (70)
5. keithc13 (70)
5. 68elcamino427 (70)
9. Notorious De La Rosa (50)
10. Xeifrank (40)
10. WGiles24 (40)
12. G.Scott (25)
13. truemontenegro (0)
14. Dodgermanramon (-25)
15. Phil Gurnee (-75)
16. Eric Stephen (-150)
27 PHI 6-2
25AU
"Statistics are used much like a drunk uses a lamp post: for support, not illumination." - Vin Scully
#61 PHI 9 - 2
25G
If knowledge can create problems, it is not through ignorance that we can solve them.
8 PHI 4-3 9:1
15C O Chad Billingsley K – BB : 2.5 (1:1)
5F. (Prop bet) Dodgers score a run in the first three innings: (2:1)
5H. (Prop bet) Chad Billingsley strikes out 8 or more: (5:1)
@davidyoungtbla - The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
11 LAN 5-4
20EO
20F
20G
20H
magnae clunes mihi placent, nec possum de hac re mentiri.
quis enim, consortes mei, non fateatur
lan 5-3
10a0
15bu
10eo
10f
any day is a good day to be a Dodgers, Eagles, Penguins, Clippers, Texas A&M fan! except when they loose
I was born the year Brett Favre started playing.... amazing
If your a troll, bandwagoner, or NNAMDI iZ SO GREATZ-er fuck off or i will go apeshit on you
by henry-dekoeyer-eagle-fan on Aug 10, 2011 10:36 AM PDT reply actions
14 LAN 4-2
10 A U
20 D O (Dodger extra base hits)
10 F
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
did we decide that you could or could not pick the same scores as someone else?
"Statistics are used much like a drunk uses a lamp post: for support, not illumination." - Vin Scully
Ah, okay, next time...
Though I’ll happily share the wealth. Or in this case, the fail.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
#112 PHI 9-8 OOUOO Yes-No-No
Leaderboard
1. underdog (150, 30)
2. Xeifrank (120, 80)
2. HummaKavula (120, 20)
4. henry-dekoyuer (110, 25)
5. 68elcamino427 (90, 20)
6. WGiles24 (80, 40)
7. StolenMonkey86 (78, 0)
8. keithc13 (70, 0)
9. David Young (60, -10)
10. Notorious De La Rosa (50, 0)
10. MammothDodger (50, -30)
12. truemontenegro (25, 25)
12. jrock247 (25, -45)
14. Dodgermanramon (0, 25)
14. G.Scott (0, -25)
16. Eric Stephen (-100, 50)
16. Phil Gurnee (-100, -25)
Can I sell all my points to the Dodgers in exchange for Eugenio Velez's removal from roster?
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
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