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Dodgers vs Brewers, August 16th Simulation + Contest

Rules:
There will be eight questions. Five of them will have even money odds, the other three will have higher paying odds. You may answer any amount of the questions as you'd like and wager any amount as long as your wagers don't go over your remaining bankroll. Every person starts out with 100 points to wager with. A wrong guess loses points and a correct guess wins points (odds will always be whole number). You still pick the game score from the table of scores. Each game score has odds associated with it.  You will be given a free 5 unit bet on the game score.  If you pick the correct game score you win 5 times the odds for that score.  Try to make game score guesses unique, but there is no penalty for accidentally doing so.  For questions where a starting position player is the answer, I will allow guesses of "starting SS" instead of "Dee Gordon". But if you guess a players name, then that is your final guess.  I will keep a Google Docs spreadsheet keeping track of everyone's bankroll.  As people play for the first time, I will add them to the spreadsheet.  A minimum of 250 units must be risked over the month to be eligible for the title.

Steps:
1. Pick Game Score (ie - #27 LAN 6-2)
2. Wager on any of the 8 questions (don't wager more than current bankroll).

Example
A. O/U Total Runs Scored: 7.5 (1:1)
B. O/U Chad Billingsley Strikeouts: 5.5 (1:1)
C: O/U Andre Ethier Total Bases: 1.5 (1:1)
D: O/U Dee Gordon Stolen Bases: 0.5 (1:1)
E: O/U Number of Dodgers bullpen pitchers used: 3.5 (1:1)
F: Player to score Dodgers first run: (2:1)
G: Dodgers Runs Scored > 6.5: (3:1)
H: Matt Kemp RBIs > 3.5 (5:1)

Possible Entry #25 LAN 6-2
4AO
6CU
5EU
8F Gordon
3G
2H

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Monday at 11:15 PM)

Vis Pitcher Home Pitcher Vegas Favorite Vegas Win% Vegas O/U Sim Fave Win% Sim O/U
Chad Billingsley Yovanni Gallardo Brewers 62.62% 7.7 60.04% 8.30

 

1 MIL 3-2 6:1   51 MIL 8-3 37:1   101 LAN 9-8 126:1
2 MIL 4-3 6:1   52 LAN 7-6 37:1   102 LAN 10-2 129:1
3 MIL 2-1 7:1   53 LAN 7-5 37:1   103 LAN 10-5 142:1
4 MIL 5-4 8:1   54 MIL 8-4 41:1   104 MIL 10-9 149:1
5 LAN 3-2 10:1   55 MIL 8-7 41:1   105 MIL 10-6 156:1
6 MIL 4-2 10:1   56 MIL 8-1 42:1   106 MIL 12-2 156:1
7 MIL 3-1 11:1   57 LAN 7-1 42:1   107 MIL 12-4 161:1
8 LAN 4-3 11:1   58 MIL 8-5 43:1   108 MIL 12-1 162:1
9 LAN 2-1 11:1   59 MIL 9-2 44:1   109 MIL 11-5 165:1
10 MIL 4-1 12:1   60 LAN 5-0 44:1   110 MIL 11-0 165:1
11 MIL 6-5 13:1   61 MIL 7-0 45:1   111 MIL 10-7 165:1
12 MIL 5-2 13:1   62 MIL 9-3 47:1   112 LAN 10-1 165:1
13 LAN 4-2 13:1   63 LAN 8-2 48:1   113 LAN 10-6 166:1
14 MIL 5-3 14:1   64 MIL 9-1 52:1   114 MIL 12-3 182:1
15 MIL 1-0 14:1   65 LAN 8-3 53:1   115 LAN 11-3 182:1
16 LAN 5-4 14:1   66 MIL 8-0 55:1   116 LAN 9-0 183:1
17 LAN 3-1 14:1   67 LAN 8-4 55:1   117 MIL 11-6 201:1
18 MIL 5-1 16:1   68 LAN 8-5 55:1   118 LAN 11-4 206:1
19 LAN 5-3 17:1   69 MIL 9-4 56:1   119 LAN 10-7 217:1
20 MIL 6-3 17:1   70 LAN 6-0 58:1   120 LAN 10-8 219:1
21 MIL 2-0 18:1   71 MIL 8-6 62:1   121 LAN 11-2 222:1
22 MIL 6-2 18:1   72 LAN 8-6 63:1   122 MIL 10-8 227:1
23 MIL 3-0 19:1   73 LAN 8-1 65:1   123 LAN 11-5 235:1
24 LAN 5-2 19:1   74 MIL 10-3 68:1   124 MIL 12-5 237:1
25 MIL 6-4 19:1   75 MIL 10-2 69:1   125 MIL 13-1 242:1
26 LAN 4-1 20:1   76 MIL 9-8 73:1   126 LAN 10-0 252:1
27 MIL 7-6 21:1   77 MIL 9-5 74:1   127 MIL 11-7 265:1
28 LAN 6-5 21:1   78 LAN 8-7 74:1   128 MIL 12-0 268:1
29 MIL 4-0 22:1   79 LAN 9-2 78:1   129 LAN 11-1 271:1
30 MIL 6-1 22:1   80 MIL 10-1 79:1   130 LAN 12-4 274:1
31 LAN 6-4 22:1   81 MIL 9-6 81:1   131 MIL 13-3 280:1
32 LAN 6-3 23:1   82 LAN 7-0 82:1   132 MIL 13-2 293:1
33 MIL 7-2 24:1   83 LAN 9-3 83:1   133 MIL 12-6 297:1
34 LAN 1-0 25:1   84 MIL 9-0 83:1   134 LAN 11-6 304:1
35 LAN 2-0 25:1   85 MIL 10-4 86:1   135 MIL 14-1 304:1
36 LAN 5-1 25:1   86 LAN 9-4 87:1   136 LAN 10-9 333:1
37 MIL 7-3 25:1   87 LAN 9-6 95:1   137 MIL 11-10 346:1
38 MIL 7-4 27:1   88 MIL 11-3 97:1   138 LAN 11-7 346:1
39 LAN 6-2 27:1   89 LAN 9-5 98:1   139 LAN 12-3 346:1
40 MIL 5-0 27:1   90 MIL 11-2 100:1   140 MIL 13-4 346:1
41 LAN 3-0 28:1   91 MIL 10-5 102:1   141 MIL 14-2 356:1
42 MIL 7-1 30:1   92 LAN 8-0 108:1   142 MIL 13-5 367:1
43 LAN 7-4 31:1   93 MIL 10-0 108:1   143 LAN 12-2 367:1
44 MIL 8-2 32:1   94 MIL 9-7 112:1   144 MIL 11-8 378:1
45 MIL 7-5 33:1   95 LAN 9-7 116:1   145 MIL 14-3 384:1
46 LAN 6-1 34:1   96 LAN 9-1 116:1   146 MIL 14-4 390:1
47 LAN 4-0 34:1   97 LAN 10-4 117:1   147 LAN 11-0 390:1
48 LAN 7-2 35:1   98 MIL 11-1 118:1   148 LAN 12-5 409:1
49 MIL 6-0 36:1   99 LAN 10-3 123:1   149 LAN 12-1 416:1
50 LAN 7-3 37:1   100 MIL 11-4 124:1   150 MIL 12-7 438:1

 

 

Actual Contest Questions

A. O/U Total Runs Scored: 7.5 (1:1)
B. O/U Chad Billingsley K-BB: 3.5 (1:1)
C. O/U Prince Fielder minus Matt Kemp total bases : 0.5 (1:1)
D. O/U Chad Billingsley Pitch Count: 97.5 (1:1)
E. O/U Chad Billingsley HRs Allowed: 0.5 (1:1)

F. (Prop bet) Matt Kemp steals a base: (2:1)
G. (Prop bet) 2, 4, 6, 8 or 10 total runs is scored in game: (3:1)
H. (Prop bet) Brewers win by one run: (5:1)


Sample Bet
#20 LAN 4-2
10AO
5CU
15DU
10H

Note: Prop bets are not over/unders. You either take the bet or you don't. In any question listing a player, that player must start for that question to be valid.  250 units must be risked to be eligible for contest title.  Players in questions B,C,D,E,F must all start for that question to be valid.  Odds in the score table are the "true odds" divided by four.


August Leaderboard Via Google Docs

Comment 19 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Comments

Display:

Leaderboard

1. Xeifrank (160)
1. WGiles24 (160)
3. HummaKavula (155)
4. underdog (150)
5. henry-dekoyuer (120)
6. fbihop (115)
7. 68elcamino427 (110)
8. jrock247 (90)
9. StolenMonkey86 (88)
10. David Young (60)
11. truemontenegro (50)
11. Notorious De La Rosa (50)
—————————— 25 unit max bet below here -——————————-
13. G.Scott (0, 0)
14. keithc13 (-10, -25)
15. Dodgermanramon (-25, 25)
16. MammothDodger (-30, -25)
17. Eric Stephen (-150, -25)
17. Phil Gurnee (-150, -25)

by Xeifrank on Aug 15, 2011 11:40 PM PDT reply actions  

4 MIL 5-4

10BU
10DO
5F
5H

magnae clunes mihi placent, nec possum de hac re mentiri.
quis enim, consortes mei, non fateatur

by Humma Kavula on Aug 16, 2011 6:37 AM PDT reply actions  

Whoops — I meant 10BO, please.

magnae clunes mihi placent, nec possum de hac re mentiri.
quis enim, consortes mei, non fateatur

by Humma Kavula on Aug 16, 2011 6:38 AM PDT up reply actions  

#1

25AU

"Statistics are used much like a drunk uses a lamp post: for support, not illumination." - Vin Scully

by G.Scott on Aug 16, 2011 7:28 AM PDT reply actions  

Eric and I should try to lose every single bet this month
  1. MIL 8 – 4
    25G

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Aug 16, 2011 8:53 AM PDT reply actions  

Eric actually won one when he and I made the same bet. :)

by Xeifrank on Aug 16, 2011 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions  

#4 MIL 5-4

10 AO
10 BO
20 EO
10 F
10 G

by fbihop on Aug 16, 2011 10:18 AM PDT reply actions  

39 lad 6 mil 2

10ao
10do
20g

any day is a good day to be a Dodgers, Eagles, Penguins, Clippers, Texas A&M fan! except when they lose
I was born the year Brett Favre started playing.... amazing
If you're a troll, bandwagoner, or NNAMDI iZ SO GREATZ-er fuck off or i will go apeshit on you

by henry-dekoeyer-eagle-fan on Aug 16, 2011 3:13 PM PDT via mobile reply actions  

#3 MIL 2-1 UUOUU Yes-No-Yes

Most people got mauled by the over/under questions. Two of the prop bets hit, but unfortunately most people bet on the one that didn’t hit. The Matt Kemp stolen base did help out some people on the 2:1 bet. Here is the updated leaderboard.

1. Xeifrank (205, 45)
2. HummaKavula (170, 15)
3. underdog (150, 0)
4. 68elcamino427 (120, 10)
5. WGiles24 (110, -50)
6. jrock247 (90, 0)
7. fbihop (85, -30)
8. henry-dekoyuer (80, -40)
9. StolenMonkey86 (73, -15)
10. David Young (60, 0)
11. Notorious De La Rosa (50, 0)
12. G.Scott (25, 25)
13. MammothDodger (20, 50)
14. truemontenegro (10, -40)
15. keithc13 (-35, -25)
16. Dodgermanramon (-50, -25)
17. Eric Stephen (-175, -25)
17. Phil Gurnee (-175, -25)

by Xeifrank on Aug 16, 2011 10:13 PM PDT reply actions  

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Pos No Player 2012 Salary
C 17 Ellis $490,000
1B 7 Loney $6,375,000
2B 37 Herrera $375,082
3B 6 Hairston $2,250,000
SS 9 Gordon $485,000
LF 23 Abreu $401,311
CF 10 Gwynn $850,000
RF 16 Ethier $10,950,000

OF/1B 33 Van Slyke $388,197
2B/3B 3 Kennedy $800,000
OF/1B 30 Sands $375,175
IF 13 DeJesus $448,992
C 18 Treanor $850,000

SP 22 Kershaw $6,000,000
SP 58 Billingsley $9,000,000
SP 29 Lilly $12,000,000
SP 44
Harang $3,000,000
SP 35 Capuano $3,000,000

CL 74
Jansen $491,000
RHP 52 Lindblom $483,000
RHP 51 Belisario $414,426
RHP 54 Guerra $488,000
RHP 28
Wright $900,000
LHP 57 Elbert $488,500
RHP 60 Coffey $1,000,000

DL 27 Kemp $10,000,000
DL 21 Rivera $4,000,000
DL 12 Sellers $481,000
DL 5 Uribe $8,000,000
DL 55 Guerrier $4,750,000
DL 14 Ellis $2,500,000
60DL 36 Hawksworth $495,000
60DL 41 De La Rosa $485,000

AA 50 Eovaldi $7,885
AAA 56 Antonini $7,869



Manny $8,087,432 deferred


Andruw $3,375,000 deferred


Pierre $3,050,000 deferred
Furcal $3,000,000 deferred
Kuroda $2,000,000 deferred
Garland $1,500,000 option buyout
Blake $1,250,000 option buyout
DFA 66 MacDougal $650,000

Totals
$115,942,869

For more detailed information, click here.

Current 40-man roster count: 42
(incl. De La Rosa & Hawksworth)

Yahoo_full_count

Manager

Eric___ned___reporters_2011_trade_deadline_small Eric Stephen

Editors

100_1427_small Phil Gurnee

Dgy_small David Young

Hanauma_bay_small Chad Moriyama

2501_small Michael White

Raptors_small Brandon Lennox

Img_0103_small CraigMinami