Dodgers vs Rockies, August 19th Simulation + Contest
by Xeifrank on Aug 19, 2011 12:17 AM PDT
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PrintRules:
There will be eight questions. Five of them will have even money odds, the other three will have higher paying odds. You may answer any amount of the questions as you'd like and wager any amount as long as your wagers don't go over your remaining bankroll. Every person starts out with 100 points to wager with. A wrong guess loses points and a correct guess wins points (odds will always be whole number). You still pick the game score from the table of scores. Each game score has odds associated with it. You will be given a free 5 unit bet on the game score. If you pick the correct game score you win 5 times the odds for that score. Try to make game score guesses unique, but there is no penalty for accidentally doing so. For questions where a starting position player is the answer, I will allow guesses of "starting SS" instead of "Dee Gordon". But if you guess a players name, then that is your final guess. I will keep a Google Docs spreadsheet keeping track of everyone's bankroll. As people play for the first time, I will add them to the spreadsheet. A minimum of 250 units must be risked over the month to be eligible for the title.
Steps:
1. Pick Game Score (ie - #27 LAN 6-2)
2. Wager on any of the 8 questions (don't wager more than current bankroll).
Example
A. O/U Total Runs Scored: 7.5 (1:1)
B. O/U Chad Billingsley Strikeouts: 5.5 (1:1)
C: O/U Andre Ethier Total Bases: 1.5 (1:1)
D: O/U Dee Gordon Stolen Bases: 0.5 (1:1)
E: O/U Number of Dodgers bullpen pitchers used: 3.5 (1:1)
F: Player to score Dodgers first run: (2:1)
G: Dodgers Runs Scored > 6.5: (3:1)
H: Matt Kemp RBIs > 3.5 (5:1)
Possible Entry #25 LAN 6-2
4AO
6CU
5EU
8F Gordon
3G
2H
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Friday at 12:04 AM)
| Vis Pitcher | Home Pitcher | Vegas Favorite | Vegas Win% | Vegas O/U | Sim Fave Win% | Sim O/U |
| Hiroki Kuroda | Jason Hammel | Rockies | 50.86% | 9.3 | 59.71% | 9.79 |
| 1 COL 4-3 6:1 | 51 COL 9-8 38:1 | 101 LAN 10-2 90:1 | ||
| 2 COL 5-4 7:1 | 52 LAN 8-4 39:1 | 102 COL 10-7 92:1 | ||
| 3 COL 3-2 7:1 | 53 LAN 8-3 39:1 | 103 LAN 7-0 105:1 | ||
| 4 COL 6-5 10:1 | 54 LAN 8-5 40:1 | 104 COL 11-1 107:1 | ||
| 5 COL 2-1 12:1 | 55 COL 9-3 40:1 | 105 COL 9-0 107:1 | ||
| 6 LAN 4-3 12:1 | 56 LAN 6-1 40:1 | 106 COL 12-3 109:1 | ||
| 7 LAN 3-2 13:1 | 57 LAN 8-7 42:1 | 107 LAN 10-6 111:1 | ||
| 8 COL 4-2 13:1 | 58 COL 5-0 42:1 | 108 LAN 10-7 111:1 | ||
| 9 LAN 5-4 13:1 | 59 LAN 8-6 42:1 | 109 COL 10-8 116:1 | ||
| 10 COL 5-3 13:1 | 60 COL 9-5 43:1 | 110 COL 12-2 119:1 | ||
| 11 COL 7-6 14:1 | 61 COL 9-4 45:1 | 111 LAN 10-8 120:1 | ||
| 12 COL 5-2 15:1 | 62 LAN 8-2 45:1 | 112 COL 11-6 121:1 | ||
| 13 LAN 5-3 16:1 | 63 COL 9-2 45:1 | 113 COL 12-4 127:1 | ||
| 14 LAN 4-2 16:1 | 64 COL 8-1 46:1 | 114 LAN 11-3 130:1 | ||
| 15 COL 6-3 17:1 | 65 LAN 3-0 47:1 | 115 LAN 8-0 131:1 | ||
| 16 COL 6-4 17:1 | 66 COL 6-0 49:1 | 116 COL 11-10 134:1 | ||
| 17 COL 3-1 17:1 | 67 COL 9-6 52:1 | 117 COL 12-5 134:1 | ||
| 18 COL 4-1 18:1 | 68 LAN 2-0 52:1 | 118 LAN 10-9 141:1 | ||
| 19 LAN 6-5 19:1 | 69 LAN 7-1 53:1 | 119 LAN 11-5 141:1 | ||
| 20 LAN 2-1 19:1 | 70 COL 9-1 53:1 | 120 COL 12-1 142:1 | ||
| 21 LAN 6-4 20:1 | 71 LAN 4-0 53:1 | 121 LAN 11-2 143:1 | ||
| 22 COL 6-2 20:1 | 72 COL 10-3 53:1 | 122 LAN 11-4 144:1 | ||
| 23 LAN 5-2 20:1 | 73 COL 10-4 54:1 | 123 LAN 10-1 146:1 | ||
| 24 LAN 6-3 20:1 | 74 LAN 1-0 55:1 | 124 COL 10-0 148:1 | ||
| 25 COL 7-3 23:1 | 75 COL 10-2 57:1 | 125 COL 13-3 157:1 | ||
| 26 COL 7-4 23:1 | 76 LAN 9-5 58:1 | 126 LAN 11-6 157:1 | ||
| 27 LAN 3-1 23:1 | 77 LAN 5-0 59:1 | 127 COL 12-6 160:1 | ||
| 28 COL 7-5 23:1 | 78 LAN 9-3 60:1 | 128 COL 11-7 163:1 | ||
| 29 COL 5-1 24:1 | 79 COL 9-7 62:1 | 129 COL 13-4 167:1 | ||
| 30 COL 8-7 24:1 | 80 COL 10-5 62:1 | 130 COL 11-0 175:1 | ||
| 31 COL 7-2 24:1 | 81 COL 7-0 63:1 | 131 LAN 11-7 178:1 | ||
| 32 LAN 4-1 25:1 | 82 LAN 9-4 63:1 | 132 LAN 12-4 183:1 | ||
| 33 LAN 7-6 26:1 | 83 LAN 9-2 64:1 | 133 COL 13-5 189:1 | ||
| 34 LAN 7-4 26:1 | 84 LAN 9-6 69:1 | 134 LAN 9-0 190:1 | ||
| 35 LAN 6-2 26:1 | 85 COL 11-3 70:1 | 135 COL 11-8 192:1 | ||
| 36 COL 6-1 27:1 | 86 LAN 6-0 70:1 | 136 LAN 11-8 193:1 | ||
| 37 LAN 7-5 27:1 | 87 LAN 8-1 70:1 | 137 COL 12-7 193:1 | ||
| 38 COL 8-3 29:1 | 88 LAN 9-7 71:1 | 138 COL 13-2 195:1 | ||
| 39 LAN 5-1 30:1 | 89 LAN 9-8 73:1 | 139 LAN 12-5 195:1 | ||
| 40 LAN 7-3 30:1 | 90 COL 10-9 75:1 | 140 LAN 12-3 203:1 | ||
| 41 COL 8-4 31:1 | 91 COL 10-1 77:1 | 141 LAN 11-1 204:1 | ||
| 42 COL 8-2 31:1 | 92 COL 8-0 79:1 | 142 COL 13-1 208:1 | ||
| 43 COL 1-0 32:1 | 93 COL 10-6 79:1 | 143 COL 11-9 220:1 | ||
| 44 COL 3-0 32:1 | 94 COL 11-4 81:1 | 144 LAN 12-2 227:1 | ||
| 45 COL 7-1 32:1 | 95 LAN 10-4 83:1 | 145 COL 13-6 242:1 | ||
| 46 COL 8-5 33:1 | 96 LAN 10-5 84:1 | 146 LAN 12-6 244:1 | ||
| 47 LAN 7-2 34:1 | 97 COL 11-2 85:1 | 147 LAN 11-9 247:1 | ||
| 48 COL 2-0 35:1 | 98 COL 11-5 87:1 | 148 LAN 10-0 247:1 | ||
| 49 COL 4-0 36:1 | 99 LAN 9-1 89:1 | 149 COL 14-2 254:1 | ||
| 50 COL 8-6 38:1 | 100 LAN 10-3 90:1 | 150 LAN 11-10 260:1 |
Actual Contest Questions
A. O/U Total Runs Scored: 8.5 (1:1)
B. O/U Hiroki Kuroda Strikeouts: 5.5 (1:1)
C. O/U Hiroki Kuroda pitch count: 96.5 (1:1)
D. O/U Matt Kemp plus Andre Ethier hits: 2.5 (1:1)
E. O/U Troy Tulowitzki plus Carlos Gonzalez RBIs: 1.5 (1:1)
F. (Prop bet) Dodgers starting catcher gets 2 or more total bases: (2:1)
G. (Prop bet) Dodgers score more than five runs: (3:1)
H. (Prop bet) Dodgers or Rockies score one total run: (5:1)
Sample Bet
#20 LAN 4-2
10AO
5CU
15DU
10H
Note: Prop bets are not over/unders. You either take the bet or you don't. In any question listing a player, that player must start for that question to be valid. 250 units must be risked to be eligible for contest title. Players in questions B,C,D,E must all start for that question to be valid. Odds in the score table are the "true odds" divided by four.
August Leaderboard Via Google Docs
17 comments
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Comments
Leaderboard
1. Xeifrank (266)
2. underdog (155)
3. 68elcamino427 (110)
4. jrock247 (90)
5. fbihop (85)
6. henry-dekoyuer (80)
7. StolenMonkey86 (67)
8. David Young (60)
9. HummaKavula (55)
10. Notorious De La Rosa (50)
—————————————— Max bet of 25 units below this line -———————————————-
11. G.Scott (0)
11. WGiles24 (0)
13. keithc13 (-10)
14. truemontenegro (-20)
15. MammothDodger (-30)
16. Dodgermanramon (-75)
17. Eric Stephen (-225)
17. Phil Gurnee (-225)
5 k’s for Kuroda. and my score keeps on rising. just with a minus sign.
by truemontenegro on Aug 19, 2011 8:16 PM PDT up reply actions
#1 COL 4-3
20AU
20BO
20EO
20F
magnae clunes mihi placent, nec possum de hac re mentiri.
quis enim, consortes mei, non fateatur
Humma, you can only bet 55. That is all that remains in your bankroll. If you don’t fix this, I will just lower the amount of each bet such that the total is below 55. That would be –
13AU, 13BO, 13EO, 13F
Nuts. Your solution is fine. BET IT ALL!
magnae clunes mihi placent, nec possum de hac re mentiri.
quis enim, consortes mei, non fateatur
by Humma Kavula on Aug 19, 2011 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions
6 LAN 4-3 12:1
5B. O Hiroki Kuroda Strikeouts: 5.5 (1:1)
2F. (Prop bet) Dodgers starting catcher gets 2 or more total bases: (2:1)
@davidyoungtbla - The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
#62 LAN 8-2 OUOPU Yes-Yes-No
1. Xeifrank (305, 39)
2. underdog (155, 0)
3. 68elcamino427 (110, 0)
4. jrock247 (90, 0)
5. fbihop (85, 0)
6. henry-dekoyuer (80, 0)
7. StolenMonkey86 (67, 0)
8. David Young (59, -1)
9. Notorious De La Rosa (50, 0)
10. MammothDodger (45, 75)
11. HummaKavula (42, -13)
12. G.Scott (0, 0)
13. keithc13 (-10, 0)
14. WGiles24 (-25, -25)
15. truemontenegro (-45, -25)
16. Dodgermanramon (-100, -25)
17. Eric Stephen (-150, 75)
17. Phil Gurnee (-150, 75)
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