Rockies vs Dodgers, August 26th Simulation + Contest
by Xeifrank on Aug 25, 2011 10:51 PM PDT
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PrintRules:
There will be eight questions. Five of them will have even money odds, the other three will have higher paying odds. You may answer any amount of the questions as you'd like and wager any amount as long as your wagers don't go over your remaining bankroll. Every person starts out with 100 points to wager with. A wrong guess loses points and a correct guess wins points (odds will always be whole number). You still pick the game score from the table of scores. Each game score has odds associated with it. You will be given a free 5 unit bet on the game score. If you pick the correct game score you win 5 times the odds for that score. Try to make game score guesses unique, but there is no penalty for accidentally doing so. For questions where a starting position player is the answer, I will allow guesses of "starting SS" instead of "Dee Gordon". But if you guess a players name, then that is your final guess. I will keep a Google Docs spreadsheet keeping track of everyone's bankroll. As people play for the first time, I will add them to the spreadsheet. A minimum of 250 units must be risked over the month to be eligible for the title.
Steps:
1. Pick Game Score (ie - #27 LAN 6-2)
2. Wager on any of the 8 questions (don't wager more than current bankroll).
Example
A. O/U Total Runs Scored: 7.5 (1:1)
B. O/U Chad Billingsley Strikeouts: 5.5 (1:1)
C: O/U Andre Ethier Total Bases: 1.5 (1:1)
D: O/U Dee Gordon Stolen Bases: 0.5 (1:1)
E: O/U Number of Dodgers bullpen pitchers used: 3.5 (1:1)
F: Player to score Dodgers first run: (2:1)
G: Dodgers Runs Scored > 6.5: (3:1)
H: Matt Kemp RBIs > 3.5 (5:1)
Possible Entry #25 LAN 6-2
4AO
6CU
5EU
8F Gordon
3G
2H
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Thursday at 10:25 PM)
| Vis Pitcher | Home Pitcher | Vegas Favorite | Vegas Win% | Vegas O/U | Sim Fave Win% | Sim O/U |
| Esmil Rogers | Ted Lilly | Dodgers | 56.04% | 7.5 | 43.55% | 7.97 |
| 1 LAN 3-2 6:1 | 51 COL 7-0 38:1 | 101 LAN 9-7 166:1 | ||
| 2 LAN 4-3 6:1 | 52 LAN 7-4 38:1 | 102 LAN 10-2 167:1 | ||
| 3 COL 3-2 8:1 | 53 LAN 4-0 38:1 | 103 COL 12-2 173:1 | ||
| 4 LAN 2-1 8:1 | 54 COL 8-5 38:1 | 104 LAN 10-3 177:1 | ||
| 5 COL 4-3 8:1 | 55 LAN 6-1 38:1 | 105 COL 12-1 184:1 | ||
| 6 LAN 5-4 9:1 | 56 LAN 7-3 42:1 | 106 COL 12-3 187:1 | ||
| 7 COL 2-1 9:1 | 57 LAN 7-2 43:1 | 107 LAN 10-4 189:1 | ||
| 8 COL 4-2 10:1 | 58 COL 9-3 43:1 | 108 COL 11-0 201:1 | ||
| 9 COL 3-1 10:1 | 59 COL 9-2 43:1 | 109 COL 11-5 208:1 | ||
| 10 COL 5-3 12:1 | 60 LAN 8-7 50:1 | 110 COL 11-6 213:1 | ||
| 11 COL 4-1 12:1 | 61 COL 8-0 51:1 | 111 COL 12-4 219:1 | ||
| 12 COL 5-2 12:1 | 62 COL 9-1 51:1 | 112 LAN 10-1 222:1 | ||
| 13 LAN 4-2 12:1 | 63 COL 8-6 51:1 | 113 LAN 10-5 227:1 | ||
| 14 COL 5-4 12:1 | 64 LAN 7-1 52:1 | 114 LAN 10-6 237:1 | ||
| 15 LAN 3-1 13:1 | 65 LAN 5-0 54:1 | 115 LAN 11-4 240:1 | ||
| 16 LAN 5-3 14:1 | 66 COL 9-4 57:1 | 116 LAN 10-9 244:1 | ||
| 17 LAN 6-5 15:1 | 67 LAN 8-3 60:1 | 117 COL 10-8 252:1 | ||
| 18 COL 5-1 15:1 | 68 LAN 8-2 65:1 | 118 LAN 11-3 260:1 | ||
| 19 COL 3-0 15:1 | 69 LAN 8-4 65:1 | 119 COL 13-2 277:1 | ||
| 20 COL 6-3 16:1 | 70 COL 9-5 67:1 | 120 LAN 9-0 280:1 | ||
| 21 LAN 5-2 17:1 | 71 COL 8-7 68:1 | 121 LAN 10-7 287:1 | ||
| 22 LAN 4-1 17:1 | 72 LAN 8-5 68:1 | 122 COL 12-0 290:1 | ||
| 23 COL 2-0 18:1 | 73 COL 10-3 69:1 | 123 LAN 11-5 293:1 | ||
| 24 COL 6-4 18:1 | 74 COL 10-2 69:1 | 124 COL 11-7 300:1 | ||
| 25 COL 6-2 18:1 | 75 LAN 6-0 70:1 | 125 COL 13-4 308:1 | ||
| 26 LAN 1-0 18:1 | 76 COL 10-1 74:1 | 126 LAN 11-2 312:1 | ||
| 27 COL 6-5 19:1 | 77 COL 9-0 75:1 | 127 COL 12-5 320:1 | ||
| 28 COL 6-1 20:1 | 78 LAN 8-6 78:1 | 128 LAN 11-1 333:1 | ||
| 29 COL 4-0 20:1 | 79 LAN 9-2 87:1 | 129 COL 12-6 351:1 | ||
| 30 COL 1-0 20:1 | 80 COL 9-6 88:1 | 130 COL 13-1 362:1 | ||
| 31 COL 7-2 23:1 | 81 LAN 8-1 88:1 | 131 COL 10-9 384:1 | ||
| 32 COL 7-3 23:1 | 82 LAN 9-3 94:1 | 132 LAN 11-6 390:1 | ||
| 33 LAN 6-3 23:1 | 83 COL 10-4 94:1 | 133 LAN 10-0 390:1 | ||
| 34 LAN 6-4 23:1 | 84 LAN 7-0 105:1 | 134 LAN 10-8 396:1 | ||
| 35 COL 5-0 23:1 | 85 LAN 9-8 106:1 | 135 COL 13-3 402:1 | ||
| 36 LAN 2-0 24:1 | 86 LAN 9-4 106:1 | 136 LAN 12-2 402:1 | ||
| 37 COL 7-1 25:1 | 87 COL 10-5 107:1 | 137 COL 13-5 402:1 | ||
| 38 COL 7-4 26:1 | 88 COL 9-7 110:1 | 138 COL 14-2 402:1 | ||
| 39 LAN 6-2 26:1 | 89 COL 11-3 111:1 | 139 LAN 12-3 416:1 | ||
| 40 LAN 7-6 27:1 | 90 COL 11-2 113:1 | 140 COL 14-1 446:1 | ||
| 41 LAN 3-0 27:1 | 91 COL 11-1 117:1 | 141 LAN 12-5 471:1 | ||
| 42 LAN 5-1 27:1 | 92 COL 10-0 123:1 | 142 LAN 12-4 520:1 | ||
| 43 COL 7-5 30:1 | 93 COL 11-4 127:1 | 143 COL 13-0 581:1 | ||
| 44 COL 6-0 30:1 | 94 LAN 9-5 129:1 | 144 LAN 11-0 594:1 | ||
| 45 COL 8-2 31:1 | 95 COL 9-8 132:1 | 145 COL 11-8 624:1 | ||
| 46 COL 8-3 31:1 | 96 LAN 9-1 140:1 | 146 LAN 11-8 624:1 | ||
| 47 COL 7-6 35:1 | 97 LAN 9-6 140:1 | 147 LAN 12-1 640:1 | ||
| 48 COL 8-1 36:1 | 98 COL 10-6 145:1 | 148 LAN 13-3 657:1 | ||
| 49 LAN 7-5 37:1 | 99 LAN 8-0 147:1 | 149 LAN 11-10 657:1 | ||
| 50 COL 8-4 37:1 | 100 COL 10-7 158:1 | 150 COL 13-6 675:1 |
Actual Contest Questions
A. O/U Total Runs Scored: 7.5 (1:1)
B. O/U Ted Lilly K-BB: 3.5 (1:1)
C. O/U Cargo/Tulo total bases minus Kemp/Ethier total bases: 0.5 (1:1)
D. O/U Dodgers Runs Scored: 3.5 (1:1)
E. O/U Matt Kemp Total Bases minus times struck out: 0.5 (1:1)
F. (Prop bet) Dodgers score 4, 5 or 6 runs: (2:1)
G. (Prop bet) Ted Lilly gives up 2 or more HRs : (3:1)
H. (Prop bet) Justin Sellers has more than 3.5 total bases: (5:1)
Sample Bet
#20 LAN 4-2
10AO
5CU
15DU
10H
Note: Prop bets are not over/unders. You either take the bet or you don't. In any question listing a player, that player must start for that question to be valid. 250 units must be risked to be eligible for contest title. Players in questions B,C,E,G,H must all start for that question to be valid. Odds in the score table are the "true odds" divided by four.
August Leaderboard Via Google Docs
26 comments
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Comments
Leaderboard
1. Xeifrank (213)
2. underdog (155)
3. 68elcamino427 (120)
4. jrock247 (100)
5. fbihop (85)
6. henry-dekoyuer (80)
7. StolenMonkey86 (67)
8. David Young (56)
9. Notorious De La Rosa (50)
————————————- Max bet of 25 below this line -———————————
10. truemontenegro (5)
11. MammothDodger (-5)
12. keithc13 (-35)
13. HummaKavula (-75)
14. WGiles24 (-100)
14. G.Scott (-100)
16. Dodgermanramon (-125)
17. Phil Gurnee (-250)
18. Eric Stephen (-275)
2 LAN 4-3
25F
magnae clunes mihi placent, nec possum de hac re mentiri.
quis enim, consortes mei, non fateatur
98 COL 10-6
25F
"Statistics are used much like a drunk uses a lamp post: for support, not illumination." - Vin Scully
25EO
"Pitching is the art of instilling fear."
by MammothDodger on Aug 26, 2011 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions
#4 LAN 2-1
30AU
30BO
30EO
15F
10G
5H
I’m slowly coming back to the pack. Or atleast the pack who don’t pick very often.
First time. Let me know if I'm not doing it right
- COL 6-4
25AO
25BO
25DO
25F
It's not what you look like, when you're doin' what you're doin'
It's what you're doin' when you're doin' what you look like you're doin'!
don't know what happend
first one should be #24 COL 6-4
It's not what you look like, when you're doin' what you're doin'
It's what you're doin' when you're doin' what you look like you're doin'!
looks good
$100 total bet on the overs
Good Luck
by 68elcamino427 on Aug 26, 2011 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions
can’t put # as the first character in a body line or it changes the formatting. can put it in the header though.
Tech Support!!!
It's not what you look like, when you're doin' what you're doin'
It's what you're doin' when you're doin' what you look like you're doin'!
#55 LAN 6-1 UOOOO Yes-No-No
The new blood jumps near the top of the leaderboard.
1. Xeifrank (318, 105)
2. mleadman (175, 75)
3. underdog (155, 0)
4. Josie Becker (150, 50)
5. 68elcamino427 (140, 20)
6. jrock247 (100, 0)
7. henry-dekoyuer (80, 0)
8. StolenMonkey86 (67, 0)
9. David Young (56, 0)
10. fbihop (50, -35)
11. Notorious De La Rosa (40, -10)
12. MammothDodger (20, 25)
13. truemontenegro (10, 5)
14. HummaKavula (-25, 50)
15. G.Scott (-50, 50)
16. keithc13 (-60, -25)
17. Dodgermanramon (-125, 0)
18. WGiles24 (-125, -25)
19. Phil Gurnee (-250, 0)
20. Eric Stephen (-300, -25)
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