FanPost

Padres vs Dodgers, August 29th Simulation + Contest

Rules:
There will be eight questions. Five of them will have even money odds, the other three will have higher paying odds. You may answer any amount of the questions as you'd like and wager any amount as long as your wagers don't go over your remaining bankroll. Every person starts out with 100 points to wager with. A wrong guess loses points and a correct guess wins points (odds will always be whole number). You still pick the game score from the table of scores. Each game score has odds associated with it.  You will be given a free 5 unit bet on the game score.  If you pick the correct game score you win 5 times the odds for that score.  Try to make game score guesses unique, but there is no penalty for accidentally doing so.  For questions where a starting position player is the answer, I will allow guesses of "starting SS" instead of "Dee Gordon". But if you guess a players name, then that is your final guess.  I will keep a Google Docs spreadsheet keeping track of everyone's bankroll.  As people play for the first time, I will add them to the spreadsheet.  A minimum of 250 units must be risked over the month to be eligible for the title.

Steps:
1. Pick Game Score (ie - #27 LAN 6-2)
2. Wager on any of the 8 questions (don't wager more than current bankroll).

Example
A. O/U Total Runs Scored: 7.5 (1:1)
B. O/U Chad Billingsley Strikeouts: 5.5 (1:1)
C: O/U Andre Ethier Total Bases: 1.5 (1:1)
D: O/U Dee Gordon Stolen Bases: 0.5 (1:1)
E: O/U Number of Dodgers bullpen pitchers used: 3.5 (1:1)
F: Player to score Dodgers first run: (2:1)
G: Dodgers Runs Scored > 6.5: (3:1)
H: Matt Kemp RBIs > 3.5 (5:1)

Possible Entry #25 LAN 6-2
4AO
6CU
5EU
8F Gordon
3G
2H

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Sunday at 11:45 PM)

Vis Pitcher Home Pitcher Vegas Favorite Vegas Win% Vegas O/U Sim Fave Win% Sim O/U
Mat Latos Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 61.01% 5.9 59.41% 6.10

 

1 LAN 2-1 3:1   51 LAN 7-6 55:1   101 LAN 10-5 333:1
2 LAN 3-2 4:1   52 LAN 8-2 56:1   102 SD 11-3 362:1
3 LAN 1-0 5:1   53 LAN 7-4 58:1   103 SD 10-0 367:1
4 SD 2-1 6:1   54 SD 7-4 58:1   104 SD 10-5 384:1
5 LAN 4-3 6:1   55 LAN 8-0 61:1   105 LAN 11-4 390:1
6 LAN 3-1 7:1   56 SD 7-5 67:1   106 LAN 9-7 396:1
7 SD 3-2 7:1   57 SD 7-0 72:1   107 SD 9-7 409:1
8 LAN 2-0 7:1   58 LAN 8-3 75:1   108 LAN 10-6 409:1
9 SD 1-0 8:1   59 LAN 7-5 78:1   109 SD 11-2 423:1
10 LAN 3-0 9:1   60 SD 8-2 80:1   110 SD 9-8 423:1
11 LAN 4-2 9:1   61 LAN 9-1 81:1   111 LAN 12-1 438:1
12 SD 3-1 9:1   62 LAN 9-2 87:1   112 SD 10-6 438:1
13 LAN 4-1 9:1   63 SD 7-6 89:1   113 SD 11-1 446:1
14 SD 2-0 10:1   64 LAN 9-0 89:1   114 LAN 12-0 454:1
15 SD 4-3 11:1   65 SD 8-1 91:1   115 LAN 12-2 489:1
16 LAN 5-4 12:1   66 LAN 8-4 94:1   116 LAN 12-3 499:1
17 SD 4-2 12:1   67 SD 8-3 95:1   117 SD 11-4 509:1
18 LAN 4-0 12:1   68 LAN 9-3 100:1   118 LAN 11-5 531:1
19 LAN 5-1 14:1   69 SD 8-4 100:1   119 SD 12-3 567:1
20 LAN 5-2 14:1   70 SD 8-5 118:1   120 LAN 10-7 609:1
21 SD 3-0 14:1   71 SD 8-0 123:1   121 SD 12-2 624:1
22 SD 4-1 14:1   72 SD 9-2 128:1   122 SD 11-0 640:1
23 LAN 5-0 16:1   73 LAN 10-2 131:1   123 SD 12-1 640:1
24 LAN 5-3 16:1   74 LAN 8-7 133:1   124 LAN 13-1 675:1
25 SD 5-2 18:1   75 LAN 10-0 134:1   125 LAN 13-0 675:1
26 SD 5-4 19:1   76 LAN 8-5 134:1   126 LAN 10-9 694:1
27 SD 5-3 19:1   77 LAN 10-1 137:1   127 LAN 12-4 694:1
28 LAN 6-1 21:1   78 LAN 9-4 139:1   128 SD 10-7 735:1
29 LAN 6-2 22:1   79 SD 9-3 142:1   129 SD 11-5 781:1
30 SD 4-0 23:1   80 SD 9-1 156:1   130 SD 10-9 833:1
31 SD 5-1 23:1   81 SD 9-4 162:1   131 SD 10-8 833:1
32 LAN 6-5 24:1   82 SD 8-6 164:1   132 LAN 11-6 999:1
33 LAN 6-0 25:1   83 SD 9-0 165:1   133 LAN 11-7 999:1
34 LAN 6-3 26:1   84 LAN 8-6 168:1   134 LAN 10-8 999:1
35 SD 6-3 29:1   85 LAN 10-3 179:1   135 LAN 12-5 999:1
36 SD 6-2 31:1   86 SD 10-2 199:1   136 LAN 13-2 1041:1
37 LAN 7-1 31:1   87 SD 9-5 204:1   137 LAN 14-1 1041:1
38 SD 5-0 32:1   88 SD 8-7 209:1   138 SD 11-6 1136:1
39 LAN 7-2 32:1   89 LAN 9-5 211:1   139 LAN 13-4 1136:1
40 SD 6-1 34:1   90 SD 10-1 220:1   140 SD 11-8 1190:1
41 LAN 6-4 35:1   91 LAN 11-1 227:1   141 SD 12-4 1190:1
42 SD 6-4 37:1   92 SD 10-3 240:1   142 SD 13-3 1249:1
43 SD 6-5 38:1   93 LAN 10-4 242:1   143 LAN 14-2 1315:1
44 LAN 7-0 39:1   94 LAN 11-2 249:1   144 LAN 13-3 1315:1
45 LAN 7-3 42:1   95 SD 9-6 287:1   145 SD 11-7 1315:1
46 SD 6-0 49:1   96 LAN 9-6 293:1   146 SD 12-0 1388:1
47 SD 7-2 51:1   97 SD 10-4 300:1   147 LAN 14-3 1388:1
48 LAN 8-1 51:1   98 LAN 9-8 308:1   148 SD 13-4 1470:1
49 SD 7-3 52:1   99 LAN 11-0 308:1   149 SD 13-2 1562:1
50 SD 7-1 54:1   100 LAN 11-3 312:1   150 SD 12-5 1666:1

 

 

Actual Contest Questions

A. O/U Total Runs Scored: 5.5 (1:1)
B. O/U Clayton Kershaw Earned Runs Allowed: 1.5 (1:1)
C. O/U Clayton Kershaw K-BB: 6.5 (1:1)
D. O/U Latos hits allowed minus Kershaw hits allowed : 1.5 (1:1)
E. O/U Dodgers relief pitchers used: 1.5 (1:1)

F. (Prop bet) Kershaw allows a HR: (2:1)
G. (Prop bet) Padres or Dodgers get shutout : (3:1)
H. (Prop bet) Clayton Kershaw pitches a complete game: (5:1)


Sample Bet
#20 LAN 4-2
10AO
5CU
15DU
10H

Note: Prop bets are not over/unders. You either take the bet or you don't. In any question listing a player, that player must start for that question to be valid.  250 units must be risked to be eligible for contest title.  Players in questions B,C,D,F,H must all start for that question to be valid.  Odds in the score table are the "true odds" divided by four.


August Leaderboard Via Google Docs

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