FanPost

Dodgers vs Padres, August 3rd Simulation + Contest

Rules:
There will be eight questions. Five of them will have even money odds, the other three will have higher paying odds. You may answer any amount of the questions as you'd like and wager any amount as long as your wagers don't go over your remaining bankroll. Every person starts out with 100 points to wager with. A wrong guess loses points and a correct guess wins points (odds will always be whole number). You still pick the game score from the table of scores. Each game score has odds associated with it.  You will be given a free 5 unit bet on the game score.  If you pick the correct game score you win 5 times the odds for that score.  Try to make game score guesses unique, but there is no penalty for accidentally doing so.  For questions where a starting position player is the answer, I will allow guesses of "starting SS" instead of "Dee Gordon". But if you guess a players name, then that is your final guess.  I will keep a Google Docs spreadsheet keeping track of everyone's bankroll.  As people play for the first time, I will add them to the spreadsheet.  A minimum of 250 units must be risked over the month to be eligible for the title.

Steps:
1. Pick Game Score (ie - #27 LAN 6-2)
2. Wager on any of the 8 questions (don't wager more than current bankroll).

Example
A. O/U Total Runs Scored: 7.5 (1:1)
B. O/U Chad Billingsley Strikeouts: 5.5 (1:1)
C: O/U Andre Ethier Total Bases: 1.5 (1:1)
D: O/U Dee Gordon Stolen Bases: 0.5 (1:1)
E: O/U Number of Dodgers bullpen pitchers used: 3.5 (1:1)
F: Player to score Dodgers first run: (2:1)
G: Dodgers Runs Scored > 6.5: (3:1)
H: Matt Kemp RBIs > 3.5 (5:1)

Possible Entry #25 LAN 6-2
4AO
6CU
5EU
8F Gordon
3G
2H

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Wednesday at 12:41 AM)

Vis Pitcher Home Pitcher Vegas Favorite Vegas Win% Vegas O/U Sim Fave Win% Sim O/U
Ted Lilly Tim Stauffer Padres 53.81 6.3 60.14% 6.76

 

1 SD 2-1 4:1   51 LAN 7-4 45:1   101 LAN 9-0 247:1
2 SD 3-2 4:1   52 LAN 7-2 46:1   102 LAN 9-7 249:1
3 SD 4-3 6:1   53 LAN 7-5 51:1   103 LAN 10-1 252:1
4 LAN 3-2 7:1   54 SD 8-3 52:1   104 SD 12-1 271:1
5 LAN 2-1 7:1   55 LAN 7-1 57:1   105 SD 9-7 287:1
6 SD 1-0 7:1   56 SD 8-0 58:1   106 SD 12-3 308:1
7 SD 3-1 8:1   57 LAN 7-6 59:1   107 LAN 10-5 328:1
8 LAN 4-3 9:1   58 SD 7-5 62:1   108 LAN 11-3 328:1
9 SD 4-2 9:1   59 SD 9-2 64:1   109 LAN 10-6 351:1
10 SD 2-0 10:1   60 LAN 6-0 64:1   110 SD 12-2 356:1
11 SD 5-4 10:1   61 SD 9-1 65:1   111 LAN 11-2 362:1
12 SD 4-1 10:1   62 LAN 8-2 68:1   112 SD 10-6 367:1
13 LAN 3-1 10:1   63 LAN 8-3 69:1   113 SD 12-0 384:1
14 SD 3-0 10:1   64 SD 8-4 71:1   114 LAN 9-8 390:1
15 LAN 4-2 11:1   65 SD 9-0 74:1   115 SD 11-5 409:1
16 LAN 1-0 12:1   66 SD 8-5 80:1   116 SD 13-1 430:1
17 SD 5-2 13:1   67 SD 9-3 80:1   117 SD 10-9 430:1
18 SD 4-0 14:1   68 SD 8-7 82:1   118 SD 12-4 446:1
19 SD 5-1 14:1   69 LAN 8-4 87:1   119 LAN 11-1 446:1
20 LAN 2-0 14:1   70 LAN 8-5 87:1   120 SD 13-2 454:1
21 LAN 4-1 15:1   71 LAN 7-0 90:1   121 SD 10-7 462:1
22 LAN 5-4 15:1   72 LAN 8-1 91:1   122 SD 11-6 462:1
23 SD 5-3 15:1   73 SD 8-6 101:1   123 LAN 10-0 462:1
24 LAN 5-2 16:1   74 SD 10-1 109:1   124 LAN 11-4 471:1
25 LAN 5-3 17:1   75 SD 9-4 109:1   125 SD 13-0 480:1
26 SD 5-0 18:1   76 SD 10-2 112:1   126 LAN 10-7 520:1
27 SD 6-5 18:1   77 LAN 9-3 114:1   127 SD 12-5 531:1
28 SD 6-1 19:1   78 LAN 8-6 116:1   128 LAN 11-5 567:1
29 LAN 3-0 19:1   79 LAN 9-2 117:1   129 LAN 12-3 581:1
30 SD 6-2 20:1   80 SD 10-0 127:1   130 SD 13-3 594:1
31 SD 6-3 21:1   81 LAN 9-4 131:1   131 LAN 11-6 624:1
32 LAN 5-1 22:1   82 SD 10-3 144:1   132 LAN 12-1 624:1
33 SD 6-0 25:1   83 LAN 8-0 145:1   133 SD 13-4 624:1
34 LAN 6-3 26:1   84 SD 9-5 146:1   134 LAN 12-4 624:1
35 LAN 6-4 26:1   85 LAN 8-7 150:1   135 SD 11-7 675:1
36 SD 6-4 26:1   86 LAN 9-1 154:1   136 LAN 10-8 694:1
37 SD 7-2 27:1   87 SD 11-2 167:1   137 LAN 12-2 714:1
38 SD 7-1 27:1   88 SD 11-1 179:1   138 SD 14-2 833:1
39 LAN 4-0 28:1   89 SD 10-4 180:1   139 LAN 10-9 833:1
40 LAN 6-2 28:1   90 SD 11-3 203:1   140 SD 14-3 833:1
41 LAN 6-5 30:1   91 LAN 10-2 208:1   141 SD 14-1 861:1
42 SD 7-3 35:1   92 LAN 9-5 209:1   142 LAN 12-5 925:1
43 LAN 6-1 35:1   93 SD 11-0 209:1   143 LAN 11-7 961:1
44 SD 7-0 37:1   94 LAN 10-3 220:1   144 SD 10-8 961:1
45 LAN 5-0 40:1   95 SD 9-8 224:1   145 SD 12-6 999:1
46 SD 7-6 40:1   96 SD 9-6 231:1   146 SD 11-8 1041:1
47 SD 8-2 42:1   97 LAN 9-6 231:1   147 LAN 13-2 1041:1
48 LAN 7-3 42:1   98 SD 11-4 237:1   148 LAN 13-4 1136:1
49 SD 7-4 43:1   99 LAN 10-4 242:1   149 LAN 11-0 1190:1
50 SD 8-1 44:1   100 SD 10-5 244:1   150 SD 11-10 1249:1

 

 

Actual Contest Questions

A. O/U Total Runs Scored: 6.5 (1:1)
B. O/U Dee Gordon runs scored: 0.5 (1:1)
C. O/U Ted Lilly Pitch Count: 93.5 (1:1)
D. O/U Dodgers Total Hits: 8.0 (1:1)
E. O/U Dodgers starting catcher number of hits: 0.5 (1:1)

F. (Prop bet) Heath Bell gets a save: (2:1)
G. (Prop bet) Ted Lilly allows two or more HRs: (3:1)
H. (Prop bet) Matt Kemp gets more than 2.5 RBIs: (5:1)


Sample Bet
#43 LAN 6-1
10AO
5CU
15DU
20F

Note: Prop bets are not over/unders. You either take the bet or you don't. In any question listing a player, that player must start for that question to be valid.  250 units must be risked to be eligible for contest title.  Players in questions B,C,G,H must all start for that question to be valid.  Odds in the score table are the "true odds" divided by four.


August Leaderboard Via Google Docs

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